The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0335 GMT - Singapore's central bank is likely to tighten its monetary-policy settings in April but keep policy tone broadly balanced, say BofA Securities' Kai Wei Ang and Rahul Bajoria in a note. They expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to steepen the currency band slope by 50 bps, an outcome likely well-anticipated by the market. Such an adjustment is likely to be framed as "measured" by the central bank as it continues to weigh near-term inflation risk against medium-term growth concerns, they say. The economists reckon the central bank could make a consecutive move to tighten in July, depending on its April monetary-policy statement due next week. The MAS uses the exchange rate as a policy tool, given that trade flows dwarf Singapore's domestic activity. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0305 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to look through the initial oil price shock and maintain the policy rate at its next meeting later this month, UOB economists say in a note. "The shock is supply-led, growth is still below potential, and core inflation remains subdued, so the policy rate is a blunt tool for the first-round energy spike," they say. The BOT's statement may emphasize that the current policy rate is already accommodative, and that the central bank will focus on whether spillovers would broaden into areas including transport fares or sustained FX weakness. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0257 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session on a possible technical correction. The greenback fell on Wednesday and touched its lowest level against the Singapore dollar in nearly a month. "Deeply oversold conditions, combined with early signs of slowing momentum, suggest that USD is unlikely to weaken much further," based on technical analysis, UOB's Quek Ser Leang says in a research report. "Today, USD is more likely to consolidate, probably between 1.2720 and 1.2775," against the Singapore dollar, says the senior technical strategist. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at S$1.2744 after reaching S$1.2712 on Wednesday, the lowest intraday level since March 11, according to LSEG data.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0226 GMT - The yuan could strengthen further against the dollar this year after outperforming expectations, ING says. The bank lowers its 2026 forecast for the dollar-yuan band to 6.70-7.05 from 6.85-7.25. The bank notes that the yuan has risen about 2.3% year to date versus the dollar, outperforming most Asian peers. Policymakers also appear more tolerant of gradual appreciation, ING says.It sees the risks as balanced, with further gains likely capped near 6.70 unless fresh catalysts emerge. The dollar was last traded at 6.83 yuan.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0206 GMT - Malaysia faces rising fiscal and political risks as elevated oil prices strain subsidy policy ahead of state elections, GeoQuant, a FitchSolutions company says. The government has cut subsidized fuel allocations by one-third to contain costs and preserve fiscal discipline. But sensitivity over public concerns over fuel prices is likely to intensify ahead of polls. A measured policy response could support Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim if oil prices ease, potentially paving the way for early federal elections. Persistently high oil prices, however, may force tighter fiscal steps, weighing on state polls and delaying federal elections, which aren't due until February 2028. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0204 GMT - The Middle East conflict faces "very substantial" risk of a flare-up and continued volatility, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. "Given the big gaps in expectation between different parties and not just the U.S., the chance of a durable cease-fire and agreement remains very narrow," the senior currency analyst says. MUFG Bank advises its clients "to take opportunities to hedge some of their positions at currently better levels especially against more vulnerable emerging-market currencies" in Asia, such as the Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Thai baht, and Korean won. Dollar rises 0.3% to 59.603 peso and gains 0.3% to 32.09 baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0159 GMT - Crude oil prices are expected to remain in the $90-a-barrel range through the April-June quarter before returning to preconflict levels, Mizuho Securities economists say. "There is higher-than-usual uncertainty about how crude-oil volatility will be passed through to downstream consumer prices, particularly in the current environment where corporate price-setting behavior is changing," they write. The BOJ has said careful attention is warranted to upside risks to prices, given that Japanese companies now feel more comfortable passing on higher costs to consumers. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0153 GMT - Indonesia is seeing rising fiscal risks as higher oil prices test the government's policy flexibility, GeoQuant, a FitchSolutions company says in a note. The country's budget outlook is also under strain. The 2026 deficit was projected at 2.68% of GDP, based on an assumed oil price of $70 per barrel, and it is unclear whether it will remain below that level given current prices, it reckons. With President Prabowo's administration remaining committed to costly flagship programs, how the deficit constraint will be managed remains uncertain, posing a significant risks if oil prices stay elevated. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0143 GMT - While the strong upward pressure on oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict is significant, much of the impact on Japan's energy costs is expected to be offset by government subsidies, Mizuho Securities economists say. Meanwhile, the impact on goods--primarily food products--will materialize gradually, with inflation in these categories projected to peak between spring and autumn of 2027, representing a four- to six-quarter lag, they say. "Because it is expected to take time before security in the Strait of Hormuz is ensured and transit is fully normalized, crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the time being," they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0123 GMT - Asian currencies' recovery sparked by the U.S.-Iran two-week cease-fire is likely a "tactical reprieve" rather than a "full reversal" at this juncture, two FX strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. "Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully normalize, damaged infrastructure will take time to repair, and the cease-fire itself remains fragile as talks are still ongoing," the strategists say. Although Asian currencies could partially recoup their recent losses, the "extent of any rebound will still depend on whether oil prices stay meaningfully lower, whether FX reserves stabilize, and whether portfolio inflows begin to return," they add. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 158.90 yen and is up 0.2% at 1,481.70 won, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0059 GMT - The Australian dollar's "ceiling" is likely around $0.7100-$0.7150 for next 1-2 weeks, Westpac's Richard Franulovich says in a research report. "Levels above that require confirmation we do not have," the head of FX Strategy says. Confirmation is needed that the Strait of Hormuz is "genuinely and fully open" and that the two-week U.S.-Iran cease-fire leads to a "durable agreement, rather than another round of brinkmanship," he says. Given "contradictory narratives" regarding the cease-fire and technical limitations language on passage through the Strait, this confirmation is not imminent, Franulovich adds. The Australian dollar edges 0.1% lower to $0.7035, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0057 GMT - The dollar is expected to trade in the range of 158.00-159.30 yen during Thursday's session, says Sony Financial Group analyst Juntaro Morimoto. "Skepticism remains over the effectiveness of the cease-fire agreement, leaving the market wary. Any headlines suggesting continued combat could easily trigger another round of dollar buying," Morimoto says. Investors are also awaiting the coming U.S. data to gauge inflationary conditions and assess how the U.S. economy is performing. The dollar was last trading at 158.73 yen. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2026 23:35 ET (03:35 GMT)
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