The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2132 ET - Copper is little changed in early Asian trade, with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange flat at $12,685.00 a ton. Rising inventories are casting a pall over the market, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. The base metal's stockpiles in LME warehouses climb to an eight-year high, suggesting demand has been subdued, they add.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2016 ET - Oil rises amid ongoing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil is transported. President Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday that Iran is "doing a very poor job" of allowing oil flow through the Strait. "Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain muted so far," Barclays' analyst Amarpreet Singh says in a note. A potential delay in normalization of traffic via the Strait or a further escalation in the Middle East conflict pose upside risks to Barclays' $85-per-barrel Brent forecast for 2026. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% at $98.42 per barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.9% higher at $96.77 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)Following share-price declines of Australian mining companies, Jefferies is most positive on base metals, lithium, uranium and rare earths. Its top picks are Rio Tinto, Sandfire Resources, South32, Lynas Rare Earths, Paladin Energy and Whitehaven Coal. However, it says a global recession triggered by higher energy prices feeding inflation is a key risk. "To put it in perspective, we estimate that the copper price in a real slowdown scenario would fall to the $3.50-4.00/lb range (versus current spot at $5.75/lb) based on the current cost curve," Jefferies says. Other commodities would have significant downside in that scenario as well. Mining share prices could fall 25-50% in a recession. Still, Jefferies makes clear that it's not pricing this scenario in its outlook. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1854 ET - Toll road owner Transurban's average daily traffic in 3Q rose a solid 3% on a year ago, says Jefferies. However, traffic volumes last month highlight pressure in Melbourne and Brisbane. They suggest "increased demand elasticity in the current cycle from higher fuel prices and a weakening consumer environment," analyst Anthony Moulder says. For March, Jefferies estimates underlying average daily traffic fell by 3.3% in Melbourne and by 0.3% in Brisbane. However, it notes heavy vehicle traffic growth continues to outpace cars, providing some cushion to revenue. "Ultimately, with an FY27 yield of 5.2%, there remains too small a difference to the 10-year government bond to be an attractive investment at this point," Jefferies says. It retains a hold call on Transurban. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1525 ET - Oil futures settle higher in a rocky session with risks to the U.S.-Iran truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz mitigated by Israel's decision to negotiate with Lebanon. Israeli attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon threatened to derail the cease-fire. The rebound underscores the fragile sentiment around the geopolitical environment in the Middle East, Frank Walbaum of Naga says in a note. Constraints on tanker flows through the waterway leave near-term supply expectations tight and "oil could remain elevated during this period of uncertainty amid diplomatic talks." WTI rises 3.7% to $97.87 after reaching $102.70 earlier. Brent rises 1.2% to $95.92.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1455 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post back-to-back losses as the EIA storage report confirms an increase in the inventory surplus last week to 87 Bcf from 50 Bcf the week before. The surplus is "a reminder that the market is entering refill season with more cushion than it carried through much of winter," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Weather remains the main demand driver, and the outlook for the next two weeks is warm enough to keep national demand soft, "which makes it difficult for prices to hold rallies near $3/mmBtu," the firm adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 2% at $2.67/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1420 ET - Oil futures retreat from earlier highs with WTI back under $100 a barrel after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government will begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. The oil market is concerned that Israel's continued attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon could thwart the U.S.-Iran cease-fire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is up 2.9% at $97.17 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $95.58. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1253 ET - CBOT soybean futures remain in positive territory after the release of the WASDE. The report showed a shifting of soybean demand away from the export market toward domestic crushing, which is seen as a reaction to the new renewable fuel regulations announced by the EPA. These regulations are seen as more supportive for U.S. soybeans, thanks to a higher percentage of volumes waived by the small-refinery exemption being redirected to larger refineries. Improved sentiment around biofuel demand is why soybeans are getting a boost from ongoing concerns around the Iran war, says Mike Castle of StoneX in a note. Most-active soybeans are up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1123 ET - While the U.S.-Iran cease-fire looks fragile and tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz is so far muted, the oil market appears to be pricing in a relatively quick normalization of traffic, Amarpreet Singh of Barclays says in a note. A potential delay or renewed escalation poses upside risk to Barclays's forecast for Brent to average $85 a barrel in 2026, and demand hasn't adjusted enough to cap prices at current levels if the situation persists for a few more weeks, he says. "With a further escalation seemingly off the table, at least for now, and the participants seriously talking is a positive sign that has provided some relief." Oil futures are recovering some of yesterday's losses on uncertainty about the truce, with WTI up 7% and Brent up 3.6%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1059 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 50 billion cubic feet last week, putting stocks at 1,911 Bcf or 87 Bcf above the five-year average, the EIA reports. The storage injection, the third in four weeks, was above the 13 Bcf five-year average build and above the 44 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. The EIA revised down the storage level for the week ended March 27 to 1,861 Bcf from 1,865 Bcf. Nymex natural gas is off 0.6% at $2.707/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1050 ET - WTI climbs back above $100 a barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely constrained and the U.S. and Iran seem far apart on critical negotiation points. The U.S. oil gauge soars 8.2% to $102.20 a barrel, while Brent crude is up 4.5% to $99.01 a barrel. "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at minimal levels despite a two-week US-Iran ceasefire," says Leonard Fisher-Matthews, deputy head of European freight pricing at Argus. "Conflicting U.S.-Iran statements over Hormuz status together with an absence of protocols have created continued operational uncertainty." According to the firm, only around 10 vessels have crossed the strait with the automatic identification system, or AIS, switched on since the cease-fire announcement. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0952 ET - The U.K.'s lack of economic growth in January disappointed, but there should be a rebound of 0.2% in GDP expansion in February, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja says in a note. Some positive payback across services and industrial production is likely, and momentum ahead of the Iran conflict should keep GDP on a positive track for the first quarter, he says. Looking ahead, growth is set to temper, as higher uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East dampens spending and investment. "With sentiment weakening, we expect output to also take a hit." Raja pencils in second-quarter growth slowing to 0.2% from 0.3% in 1Q, with 2026 GDP growth at 0.7%. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 09, 2026 21:32 ET (01:32 GMT)
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