The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0742 GMT - European energy stocks rise in opening trade, recouping some of the prior session's losses, as oil climbs back toward the $100-a-barrel level. The price rise follows fresh strikes on Lebanon by Israel and reports of low traffic levels through the Strait of Hormuz. Leading the gains are BP, Galp Energia and Repsol--up 1.7%, 1.6% and 1%, respectively. Shell and Eni shares are up 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Brent crude for June delivery is up 2.2% to $96.86 a barrel, while WTI futures for May gain 3.3% to $97.51 a barrel. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0554 GMT - Only a partial recovery in oil supply is likely in the near term following the Iran war, increasing the risk of prolonged elevated prices, ANZ Research's Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say in a note. They expect an uneven recovery, citing operational frictions, damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and export bottlenecks. Some disrupted supply may be lost permanently due to constrained export capacity and producers' financing challenges, implying a higher long-term clearing price and increased volatility. If recovery stalls at current levels, crude will likely remain above $100 a barrel, leading to demand rationing and inventory drawdowns. Over time, reduced production capacity could tighten supply beyond 2026, making sharp price declines less likely while increasing the risk of spikes, the strategists add. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0517 GMT - The two-week U.S.-Iran cease-fire is likely to do little for energy supplies, says Standard Chartered's energy and metals research team in a note. Security fears, elevated insurance premiums and operational constraints mean that not much additional energy might go through the Strait of Hormuz, Emily Ashford and others say. They note that liquefied natural gas cargoes could be an exception, as recent news suggests LNG vessels are laden and could proceed on short notice, they add. While oil prices declined on the cease-fire news, Standard Chartered's team says this rushed correction could prove too deep. The team projects 2Q Brent crude oil futures to average $98.00 a barrel and WTI at $92.50 a barrel. Front-month Brent is up 2.7% at $97.30 a barrel; WTI rises 3.5% to $97.75 a barrel.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0507 GMT - Oil's recent sharp declines don't yet signal a sustained downtrend, XS.com analyst Linh Tran says. Prices rebounded after Israel struck Beirut and parts of southern Lebanon after the cease-fire, reviving supply-disruption concerns and prompting oil prices to rebound as investors adjust expectations. However, current rebounds in oil prices don't necessarily reflect genuine supply shortages, but are largely driven by the reintroduction of risk premiums, Tran says. Front-month WTI crude oil likely remains highly volatile and range-bound, fluctuating within a $90-$105 per barrel range, the analyst says. Oil prices hinge on "whether tensions in the Middle East escalate into a structural supply disruption risk, or remain confined to short-term psychological shocks," Tran adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0429 GMT - Fuel prices in Southeast Asia have surged and are unlikely to return to levels seen prior to the Iran conflict anytime soon, Macquarie says in an equity research note. The bank says it continues to favor sectors related to energy, including substitutes such as crude palm oil, while it avoids consumer discretionary, hospitality and leisure sectors. It typically takes about six months for consumer inflation to start showing significant gains following sharp rises in oil prices, the bank says. Energy subsidies in Malaysia and Indonesia are likely to cushion the negative effect on consumers in the near term, it adds. (venkat.pr@wsj.com)
0408 GMT - Rise of the "petroyuan" remains a long-term theme rather than a short-term catalyst, says ING in a research note. "Iran's potential move to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a tolled passageway--requiring payments in cryptocurrency or CNY--has sparked lively debate about what this could mean for the yuan's future," it says. This could lead to a system in which payments for passage are collected in yuan if the war were to end with Iran successfully controlling the Strait of Hormuz, ING says. While few ships are going through the Strait now, the potential move is a "real-world example of the CNY's rising clout and a vote of support for China acting as a counterweight to the U.S.-dominated financial system," ING says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0407 GMT - PTT Exploration & Production's 2Q net profit is expected to rise, partly due to higher crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions, UOB Kay Hian analysts say in a note. The average price of a barrel of oil this quarter so far is $101.50, compared to $85.16 in 1Q. The Thai oil producer is also likely to gain from stronger sales volume, with 550,000 to 560,000 barrel oil equivalent per day, up 2% on quarter. UOB KH maintains a buy rating on the stock, but raises its target price to 185.00 baht from 150.00 baht. Shares are last 0.7% higher at 152.00 baht.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0206 GMT - Malaysia faces rising fiscal and political risks as elevated oil prices strain subsidy policy ahead of state elections, GeoQuant, a FitchSolutions company says. The government has cut subsidized fuel allocations by one-third to contain costs and preserve fiscal discipline. But sensitivity over public concerns over fuel prices is likely to intensify ahead of polls. A measured policy response could support Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim if oil prices ease, potentially paving the way for early federal elections. Persistently high oil prices, however, may force tighter fiscal steps, weighing on state polls and delaying federal elections, which aren't due until February 2028. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
1902 GMT - Oil futures post their sharpest single-day losses in six years as the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week cease-fire agreement that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The price retreat is contained somewhat by concerns about the truce holding, the outcome of negotiations, and the logistical complications and time involved in restoring the passage of oil through the strait. The agreement triggered a noticeable shift in tone across markets, says Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com. "If shipping flows pick up meaningfully, it should take some of the heat out of oil prices and, by extension, unwind some of the stagflation trades that dominated recently." WTI settles down 16% at $94.41 a barrel and Brent falls 13% to $94.75. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1732 GMT - Higher prices at the pump are expected to be felt by farmers in their crop budgets, says agricultural lender CoBank in a note. That's even with improved grain futures, which are expected to only ease the financial burden on farmers somewhat. "Improved commodity prices are not anticipated to offset higher input and production costs," says the firm. Instead, CoBank forecasts that "the sharp increase in diesel prices following the onset of the Iran war could add $2,000 in fuel costs per farmer and hundreds of thousands more for grain elevators." CBOT grain futures are mostly lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1612 GMT--The war in the Middle East is splitting the world's electricity markets between winners and losers, according to Wood Mackenzie. While countries like Japan, South Korea and Italy face potential cost increases of up to 80%, markets including the U.S. and Brazil remain largely insulated from the turmoil, the energy-focused consulting firm says. It adds that 64% of Japan's electricity generation relies on imported coal and natural gas, making the country the world's most vulnerable power market, followed by South Korea and Italy, with 56% and 47%, respectively. The U.S. and Brazil, in turn, demonstrate minimal vulnerability, with zero or 1%, Wood Mackenzie says. Brazil benefits from an abundance of renewable energy, while U.S. domestic natural gas and coal production insulates [its] power sector from international price volatility. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1601 GMT--Export logistics in the Persian Gulf need to be normalized in order for Middle East producers to recover the 11 million barrels a day of shut-in oil output, and there needs to be confidence in the viability of passage through the Strait of Hormuz during and beyond the two-week cease-fire, Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie says in a note. "Laden vessels have every incentive to transit the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as insurance and security assurances allow, but it is unclear what rate of transits can be achieved safely," he says. Vessels coming to load up are unlikely to enter via the strait any sooner than a "just in time" logistics basis, "at risk of becoming trapped if hostilities resume." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 09, 2026 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments