MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European shares fell on Thursday on increased doubts around the strength of a cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil prices were on the rise after Israel struck Beirut and parts of southern Lebanon after the cease-fire, reviving supply-disruption concerns.
" Optimism around the ceasefire has faded somewhat, with Iran accusing the U.S. of breaching the agreement, weighing on risk sentiment alongside a modest rebound in oil prices," Danske Bank said.
Jefferies said that despite the fragile nature of the cease-fire , the truce is expected to hold. "We have reached a stage where both parties would want a ceasefire as carrying on the war assures a negative fallout for both parties," it added.
Economic Insight
Rising oil prices have revived concerns about energy-driven inflation, leading investors to price in possible interest rate rises by major central banks.
"The implications of the current cease-fire are clear," Daiwa Securities said. "While the global economy has avoided a severe growth shock , energy-driven inflationary pressures remain unresolved."
ING said that with no permanent cease-fire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the European Central Bank was unlikely to rush toward a looser policy stance.
Money markets currently price in 53 basis points of interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year, according to LSEG, having priced 89bps at some point before Trump's cease-fire announcement.
Jefferies retained its long positions in front-end eurozone rates, seeing market pricing of ECB rate hikes as still excessive.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures were down on reignited concerns over high energy prices and inflation pressures.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting revealed that the majority of officials thought progress bringing inflation down could be slower than expected. Traders now await the release of PCE data later on Thursday and CPI figures on Friday.
Forex:
The euro traded flat.
Expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates could allow the euro to outperform, ING said.
Sterling had little potential to extend recent gains against the euro as interest-rate rise expectations could prove more sticky for the ECB compared to the Bank of England if energy prices fall, ING added.
The dollar traded steady against a basket of currencies as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated.
The greenback was likely to weaken if Trump renewed his calls for interest rate cuts, Commerzbank said.
Bonds:
Eurozone government bond yields rose in opening trade.
Treasury yields were little changed after Wednesday's rally that pushed yields lower.
Nuveen maintains a constructive view on global bond markets, though it sees Treasurys offering "poor" relative value.
Credit Mutuel Asset Management said s hort-term and medium-term bonds offered attractive investment opportunities in the midst of the continuing Middle East conflict.
Energy:
Oil prices rose. "The conditional two-week ceasefire is already showing signs of faltering," Kpler said. "The deep supply challenges in the crude oil market are far from resolved, even if there is a brief logistical window to ease pressure."
ANZ said that only a partial recovery in oil supply was likely in the near term following the Iran war, increasing the risk of prolonged elevated prices.
For XS, oil's recent sharp declines don't yet signal a sustained downtrend. Oil prices hinge on "whether tensions in the Middle East escalate into a structural supply disruption risk , or remain confined to short-term psychological shocks," it added.
Goldman Sachs cut its oil-price forecast for the second quarter after the temporary cease-fire, citing easing near-term risk premiums.
Metals:
Gold prices eased after climbing back above $4,800 a troy ounce in the previous session.
The precious metal was likely to rebuild its gains and could retest record highs this year amid heightened geopolitical risks, Standard Chartered said.
Aluminum
Aluminum fell in early trading. Macro sentiment continues to drive short-term volatility, Nanhua said.
Iron ore
Iron ore prices declined in early trade, weighed by high inventories and strong supply. Global supply is stronger than expected, Bohai Futures said.
Lithium
Lithium is now Morgan Stanley's top pick among mined commodities, as Zimbabwe's export ban drives meaningful near-term tightness in supplies . It is also bullish on thermal coal and uranium, supported by strong energy market demand.
EMEA HEADLINES
Trump Team Explores Punishment for NATO Countries That Didn't Support Iran War
WASHINGTON-The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials.
The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump's recent threats to fully withdraw the U.S. from the alliance, which by law he can't do without Congress.
German Industry Posted Surprise Contraction Ahead of Iran War
German industrial production declined unexpectedly in February, with the energy-price shock from the conflict in the Middle East expected to hamper output further.
Production fell 0.3% on month in February, after an upwardly revised flat reading for January, Germany's statistics agency Destatis said Thursday. A consensus of economists polled last week by The Wall Street Journal instead expected a 0.5% increase in February.
Extent of Damage to Middle East Energy Facilities Key to Economic Impact, OECD Says
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic growth and inflation around the world will partly depend on the damage caused to energy production and transport infrastructure, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's chief economist.
The Paris-based research body last month released new forecasts for the global economy that saw little change under the assumption that energy prices start to fall back later this year from the highs they have reached in the weeks since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
Inside the Race to Protect Submarine Cables From Sabotage
SYDNEY-From the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean, a global scramble is under way to protect submarine cables vulnerable to potential sabotage.
Governments, militaries, cable owners and tech startups are taking action to bolster the defenses of the world's underwater cable network, through which most international data traffic travels.
GLOBAL NEWS
Oil Pushes Higher, Treasurys Steady as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked
Oil climbed and U.S. Treasurys held steady as a cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Iran showed early signs of strain.
Israeli strikes on Lebanon opened an early schism between the two sides, threatening a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as Iran said it would continue to limit the number of ships transiting the crucial waterway.
Cease-Fire Teeters on Its First Day
A two-week cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran was on tenterhooks Wednesday, as Israel launched massive attacks on Lebanon and Iran threatened to reverse its plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic.
Both the U.S. and Iran claimed victory on Wednesday after the two countries agreed to a cease-fire to end the war that began in late February, but Iran continued to fire missiles and drones at Arab countries in the Persian Gulf and Israel unleashed a barrage of deadly strikes against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Extent of Damage to Middle East Energy Facilities Key to Economic Impact, OECD Says
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic growth and inflation around the world will partly depend on the damage caused to energy production and transport infrastructure, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's chief economist.
The Paris-based research body last month released new forecasts for the global economy that saw little change under the assumption that energy prices start to fall back later this year from the highs they have reached in the weeks since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
Iran War Cease-Fire Can't Undo the Middle East's Energy Hangover
The cease-fire agreed to between President Trump and Iran may silence the guns, but the wreckage at key regional energy hubs is set to leave lasting economic damage.
Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit dozens of refineries, oil fields and natural gas export terminals across the region, ensuring a prolonged squeeze on global oil-and-gas markets even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Why Iran Thinks It Won the War Despite Huge Military Losses
When Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.
Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal-its own survival-but also two potential strategic gains: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.
Venezuela's Prisons Are Still Full of Military Rebels Despite U.S. Pressure
CARACAS, Venezuela-The government here has released hundreds of political prisoners since the U.S. captured the country's strongman, Nicolás Maduro, and whipped his successors into alignment with Washington. One cadre remains locked up: military officers accused of rebellion.
About 187 former servicemen, many of them senior officers, are still behind bars despite a much-touted amnesty for prisoners that the government passed under American pressure, according to Foro Penal, a group providing free counsel to political prisoners.
Cease-Fire Teeters on Its First Day
A two-week cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran was on tenterhooks Wednesday, as Israel launched massive attacks on Lebanon and Iran threatened to reverse its plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic.
Both the U.S. and Iran claimed victory on Wednesday after the two countries agreed to a cease-fire to end the war that began in late February, but Iran continued to fire missiles and drones at Arab countries in the Persian Gulf and Israel unleashed a barrage of deadly strikes against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Trump Allies, U.S. Officials Fear Iran Victory Lap Is Premature
President Trump's declaration of "total victory" in Iran left some close allies and several senior aides worried Wednesday that he is overstating what is a fragile cease-fire with Tehran, which remains capable of blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and attacking U.S. forces in the region.
The president has been advised on the risks that could cause the cease-fire to crater and warned that Iran still retains dangerous military capabilities, according to multiple officials.
Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com
Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 09, 2026 04:58 ET (08:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments