OPENING CALL
Stock futures were lower as investors remained wary about the sustainability of the Middle East cease-fire and the prospects of a lasting peace.
"Amid this fragile equilibrium, investors are likely to remain cautious and opportunistic," Societe Generale said.
Trump asked Israel to scale back attacks that were threatening the cease-fire. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively at a standstill, with Iran limiting the number of ships passing through the critical energy chokepoint.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday, but remained below $100 per barrel.
It is difficult to say whether the U.S. has gained anything from the Middle East war, but its economy is likely to be the least impacted by rising oil and gas prices, Jefferies said.
Investors now await CPI data due 8:30 a.a. ET, the market's first chance to see how last month's oil shock affected consumers. Economists expect the largest annual increase since May 2024, heavily driven by gasoline and other energy-related prices.
"Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today's US CPI print for March," said Deutsche Bank.
"That's an important one, because it's the first to cover the period since the Iran war began."
Stocks to watch
Ally Financial, Truist Financial: The first set of consumer-price data is due Friday morning. Regional banks, which are particularly exposed to changing interest-rate expectations, are among the stocks that could be moved by any inflation surprise.
D.R. Horton, Lennar: The inflation print could similarly sway home-building stocks. Cooler inflation and lower rates tend to boost mortgage availability and home sales.
Lumentum, Coherent, Corning: Makers of optical equipment gained premarket after Bloomberg reported that Lumentum is seeing strong AI-related demand. JPMorgan analysts also raised their price targets for Lumentum and Coherent, both of which are backed by Nvidia.
Organon's shares rose premarket after a media report that India's Sun Pharmaceutical submitted a binding offer for the company.
Watch For:
Canada Labour Force Survey for March, CPI for March, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Survey for April
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- Iran Shows You Don't Have to Be a Superpower to Wage Economic Warfare
- Trump Once Talked Tough With China. Now He's Playing Nice.
- Landslides Destroyed Their Homes. Two Years Later, FEMA Money Still Hasn't Come.
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar rose slightly as oil prices edged higher on concerns about restricted access through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The greenback could be propped up if CPI data show U.S. inflation accelerated sharply in March following the recent rise in energy prices steaming from the Iran war, ING said.
"With hot inflation grabbing headlines, the bar for another dollar drop should be a bit higher today , even if Middle East developments remain the primary driver," it added.
The euro fell. The currency could outperform low-yielding currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, on expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, ING said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were marginally higher in early trade. U.S. rates markets are moving from acute escalation risk toward a cautious holding pattern after the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, but confidence in durability remains limited, Societe Generale said.
Foreign investor demand at Treasury auctions weakened in March amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated volatility, Barclays said.
Energy:
Oil prices rose but remained below $100 a barrel ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend.
"What gets agreed there, specifically whether a workable vessel transit protocol emerges, is the single variable that determines whether this backlog starts to clear," Kpler said.
Metals:
Gold prices fell in early European trading, though the metal remained on track for a weekly gain of 2% as investors awaited greater clarity from upcoming U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend.
The precious metal was likely to remain volatile in the short-term as investors react to shifting geopolitical signals, though the longer-term outlook is supportive, ING said.
Copper
Copper was little changed in early trade. Rising inventories are casting a pall over the market, ANZ said.
Iron
Iron ore futures declined in early trade. Prices were likely weighed by rising supply and doubts over demand prospects in China amid shrinking steel margins, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Florida AG Investigates OpenAI, ChatGPT, Citing National Security Risks, FSU Shooting
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier launched an investigation into OpenAI and its ChatGPT models, citing national security risks and the possibility that ChatGPT helped facilitate a shooting at Florida State University.
In a video posted to X, Uthmeier raised concerns that OpenAI's models or data could be used by adversaries of America, namely China. He added that ChatGPT has been linked to criminal behavior including child sex abuse material.
Alibaba's New AI Video-Generation Model Tops Global Ranking
Alibaba Group's new artificial-intelligence video-generation tool is leading a global ranking that tracks AI models' abilities, signaling Chinese companies' growing competitiveness in technology used in advertising, content creation and entertainment.
The model, called HappyHorse 1.0, has ranked No. 1 on third-party website Artificial Analysis' text-to-video leaderboard since it was released earlier this month.
Corning Stock Hits a New Record. It's Because of AI.
Corning Inc. stock reached a record on Thursday. The 175-year-old glass manufacturer is increasingly seen as a big beneficiary of artificial intelligence-driven optical networking demand.
The stock closed up 3.9% at a new-all-time high of $169.8, posting its largest percentage increase since Wednesday's 11% increase, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
TotalEnergies, Aramco Refinery Shut After Being Damaged Amid Iran Conflict
France's TotalEnergies said a refinery complex jointly owned with the Saudi national oil company has been shut down after sustaining damage this week, the latest hit to crude production in the region as the Iran War continues to disrupt global energy supply.
The Satorp site was affected by incidents that occurred during the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, causing damage to one of the refinery's two processing trains, the energy major said in a statement Friday. The Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Co., or Satorp, is a joint venture between Saudi Aramco, which holds a majority stake, and TotalEnergies, with a 37.5% interest. It is situated in Jubail in Saudi Arabia, close to the Persian Gulf.
U.S. Races to Keep Israel's Fight in Lebanon From Derailing Cease-Fire
The U.S. raced Thursday to keep Israel's war in Lebanon from derailing talks with Iran this weekend, with President Trump asking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back attacks that were threatening a fragile cease-fire.
Israel said Thursday that it would begin direct negotiations with Lebanon after Trump delivered the stern message to Netanyahu in a phone call that a U.S. official said was shorter than their usual regular talks. Lebanese officials said they want talks that lead to a lasting peace but are first seeking an immediate pause in Israeli strikes that escalated in intensity after the Iran cease-fire was announced Wednesday.
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China's Deflationary Streak
A surge in energy costs triggered by the war in Iran pushed up producer prices in China, snapping a streak of factory deflation in the country that lasted more than three years.
When Gas Prices Rise, They're Hard to Bring Down. Here's Why.
Americans are staring down a harsh new reality despite the tentative cease-fire in the Middle East: $4 gasoline looks like it's here to stay.
Prices will likely take time to recede, even if President Trump's two-week pause on fighting holds. Drivers from Las Vegas to Seattle are now commonly shelling out $5 a gallon for gas, according to AAA, while prices in San Francisco and Los Angeles frequently top $6.
Japan to Release Extra Oil Reserves Amid Middle East Uncertainty
TOKYO-Japan plans to release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves starting in early May, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Friday as the government tries to stabilize energy prices amid volatility caused by war in the Middle East.
While the U.S. and Iran recently agreed to a conditional cease-fire, concerns remain surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments that has been largely blocked following the conflict.
U.S. Races to Keep Israel's Fight in Lebanon From Derailing Cease-Fire
The U.S. raced Thursday to keep Israel's war in Lebanon from derailing talks with Iran this weekend, with President Trump asking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back attacks that were threatening a fragile cease-fire.
Israel said Thursday that it would begin direct negotiations with Lebanon after Trump delivered the stern message to Netanyahu in a phone call that a U.S. official said was shorter than their usual regular talks. Lebanese officials said they want talks that lead to a lasting peace but are first seeking an immediate pause in Israeli strikes that escalated in intensity after the Iran cease-fire was announced Wednesday.
Xi Hosts Taiwan Opposition Leader to Draw Island Closer to China
TAIPEI-Chinese leader Xi Jinping welcomed the leader of Taiwan's main opposition party for a rare meeting in Beijing on Friday, leaning in to his campaign to steer the self-ruled democracy closer to China and nudge the U.S. to the sidelines.
Xi invited Nationalist Party Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to China this week ahead of a mid-May summit with President Trump in which the Chinese leader could continue a push to dilute Washington's support for Taiwan.
Trump Once Talked Tough With China. Now He's Playing Nice.
When Pentagon officials last fall briefed President Trump on a draft of a bureaucratic defense strategy document, it framed China the same way it had for a decade: as the top security threat facing the U.S.
Trump balked and ordered his Pentagon deputy to rewrite it, according to three officials familiar with the exchange. When the administration's revised National Defense Strategy published in January, it offered instead a conciliatory tone toward Beijing.
Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
MTY Food Group 1Q
Economic Indicators $(ET)$:
1230 Mar Labour Force Survey
Stocks to Watch:
Allied Properties Files Management Info Circular and Announces CFO Transition; Chief Fincl Officer Nanthini Mahalingam Will Be Departing; Mahalingam Will Remain in Her Role Until Oct 30 to Facilitate a Transition; Retained Egon Zehnder in Connection With the CFO Search; Nominated Mario Barrafato for Election as a Trustee; Current Trustee Antonia Rossi Is Not Standing for Re-election; Exec Chair Michael Emory's Employment Agreement Will Not Be Renewed, and He Won't Stand for Re-Election as a Trustee; Board's Size Will Be Reduced to Eight Members
Capstone Copper Price Target Cut 6% to A$16.68/Share by Jefferies
Cogeco Communications 2Q Revenue CAD 693.6M, FactSet Est. CAD 698.8M; 2Q Adj EBITDA CAD 337.7M; Reports 2Q Revenue of CAD 693.6 Million, Compared With FactSet Estimates of CAD 698.8 Million
Dundee Corp Renews Normal Course Issuer Bid on Class A Subordinate Voting Shrs; May Purchase Up to Maximum of 6.4M Class A Shrs, Representing About 10% of Class A Public Float
Eni Invests in Nouveau Monde Graphite; To Invest $70M in Nouveau Monde Graphite as Part Of $297M Capital Increase; Expected Hold Stake of Around 11.5% of NMG's Share Capital After Tranaction; Will Have NMG Board Seat; Capital Raise Aimed at Supporting Development Matawinie Mine of Natural Graphite
Extendicare Announces C$450M Inaugural Offering of Investment Grade Senior Unsecured Notes
Lundin Gold Reports Q1 2026 Production of 119,742 Ounces of Gold
Reitmans Canada 4Q Adj EBITDA CAD 2.2M; 4Q Net Loss CAD 4.9M; 4Q Loss/Shr CAD 0.10; 4Q Gross Profit CAD 113.8M; 4Q Revenue CAD 207.2M; Reports 4Q Revenue of CAD 207.2 Million
Expected Major Events for Friday
06:00/GER: Mar CPI
08:00/ITA: Feb Industrial Production
12:30/CAN: Mar Labour Force Survey
12:30/US: Mar CPI
12:30/US: Mar Real Earnings
14:00/US: Feb Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
14:00/US: Apr University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
16:59/GER: Feb Balance of Payments
18:00/US: Mar Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government
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Expected Earnings for Friday
Atlantic American Corp $(AAME)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Atlantic International Corp $(ATLN)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Bio-Path Holdings Inc $(BPTH)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
CNB Financial Corp (Pennsylvania) $(CCNE)$ is expected to report $0.80 for 1Q.
Carisma Therapeutics Inc $(CARM)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Children's Place Inc $(PLCE)$ is expected to report $-0.96 for 4Q.
Corus Entertainment Inc - Class B (CJR.B.T,CJREF) is expected to report for 2Q.
DNA X Inc $(SONM)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Excellon Resources Inc (EXN.T) is expected to report for 4Q.
FRMO Corp (FRMO) is expected to report for 3Q.
FRP Holdings Inc $(FRPH)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
MTY Food Group Inc (MTY.T) is expected to report $0.87 for 1Q.
Mega Matrix Inc (MPU) is expected to report for 4Q.
Noble Romans Inc (NROM) is expected to report for 4Q.
Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO) is expected to report for 4Q.
Oncolytics Biotech Inc (ONCY) is expected to report for 4Q.
Quince Therapeutics Inc $(QNCX)$ is expected to report $-0.08 for 4Q.
Scilex Holding Co $(SCLX)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Unity Bancorp Inc (UNTY) is expected to report $1.37 for 1Q.
VVT Med Inc (VVTM.V) is expected to report for 4Q.
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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS
AES Corp Cut to Neutral From Positive by Susquehanna
Alcoa Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley
Assertio Holdings Cut to Hold From Buy by Lake Street
Assertio Holdings Cut to Neutral From Buy by HC Wainwright & Co.
Capital One Raised to Overweight From Neutral by JP Morgan
Circle Internet Group Cut to Sell From Neutral by Compass Point
Conagra Brands Cut to Neutral From Outperform by BNP Paribas
Datadog Raised to Buy From Neutral by Guggenheim
GitLab Cut to Neutral From Buy by Guggenheim
HealthEquity Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by BMO Capital
Hormel Foods Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP Morgan
Marvell Technology Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Barclays
Shore Bancshares Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Staar Surgical Raised to Buy From Hold by Canaccord Genuity
Texas Instruments Raised to Buy From Hold by Stifel
Tradeweb Markets Cut to Hold From Buy by TD Cowen
Trustmark Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
United Community Banks Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Whitestone REIT Cut to Hold From Buy by Truist Securities
Whitestone REIT Cut to Neutral From Buy by Ladenburg Thalmann
WR Berkley Cut to Neutral From Overweight by Cantor Fitzgerald
Zscaler Cut to Neutral From Buy by BTIG
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 10, 2026 05:54 ET (09:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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