MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany foreign trade, industrial production; trading updates from OMV, Norwegian Air, Finnair
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded mixed early Thursday. Asian stock indexes fell; the dollar edged lower; Treasury yields were little changed; oil futures rose; while gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures pointed to a mixed open in Europe on Thursday, with market focus still on the Strait of Hormuz.
"It would be foolish to say we're out of the woods. But I think both parties have reasons to stay on the path toward a peaceful resolution," said Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management. "It's always a dangerous thing to say, but I do think the worst is behind us."
Few are convinced the tumult is over. Tanker-tracking firms report that traffic through the Persian Gulf remains at a trickle compared with prewar levels. "It is highly unlikely that trade into the Gulf will simply resume," said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at Lloyd's Market Association.
"This is a fragile situation. You cannot ignore that," said Ben Emons, chief investment officer at Fed Watch Advisors.
Forex:
The gains made by the U.S. dollar this year have evaporated, with investors pivoting to other currencies after the announcement of a U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal. "This setup leaves us hesitant to step in and buy USD dips just yet," wrote Citigroup strategist Daniel Tobon. It "might be too early to buy" the dip.
"Moreover, much uncertainty still remains over how US-Iran developments unfold from here," Tobon wrote. "For example, joint control of the Strait of Hormuz is an unstable equilibrium in our view."
Bonds:
The bond market's response to the cease-fire so far has been more muted than other parts of the market. Eric Wallerstein, chief macroeconomic strategist at Clocktower Group, sees two possible explanations. Either the bond market is sniffing out that this cease-fire is going to be fragile and short-lived, or investors have crossed the Rubicon, and the inflationary impacts from higher energy prices will likely be with us for the foreseeable future.
"Nobody really knows what the hit to growth will be from all of this. I don't think anybody really knows. I'm taking a bit more signal from the bond market, at least right now," Wallerstein said.
Energy:
It's hard not to see more upside than downside risks to oil prices as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar.
"The undersupply of oil due to the Iran war is creating strong prompt demand for physical cargoes," he said. "And if the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain largely closed, physical markets will eventually assert their influence over the futures market."
Metals:
Gold fell slightly in Asia after front-month Comex gold futures rose nearly 2% overnight. Recent declines in oil prices are leading to an "easing of inflation risks and, consequently, a downward adjustment in interest-rate expectations, Commerzbank Research's Carsten Fritsch said.
"This prospect has led to a fall in bond yields, from which gold, as a non-interest-bearing investment, benefits. Whether this remains the case depends on whether a lasting peace settlement is found in the coming two weeks or whether there is a renewed escalation thereafter," he added.
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Aluminum fell in Asian trading. Macro sentiment continues to drive short-term volatility, Nanhua analysts said. High inventories and weak demand in China continue to weigh on prices, though overseas markets remain relatively firm because of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
"The key trading tension lies between shifting macro expectations and soft domestic fundamentals," Nanhua added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Why Fed Rate-Cut Prospects Have Dimmed, With or Without a Cease-Fire
The cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran offers a chance to defuse the latest serious threat to the global economy. But for the Federal Reserve, it may have replaced one problem with another: an energy shock that lingers just enough to keep inflation elevated without being severe enough to destroy demand, leading to an extended interest-rate pause.
Minutes from the Fed's March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday, underscored that the war hadn't created the Fed's reluctance to cut so much as it had complicated an already-cautious posture. Even before the conflict, the path to rate cuts had narrowed. The labor market had stabilized enough to ease recession fears, and progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal had stalled.
Iran War Cease-Fire Can't Undo the Middle East's Energy Hangover
The cease-fire agreed to between President Trump and Iran may silence the guns, but the wreckage at key regional energy hubs is set to leave lasting economic damage.
Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit dozens of refineries, oil fields and natural gas export terminals across the region, ensuring a prolonged squeeze on global oil-and-gas markets even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Trump Allies, U.S. Officials Fear Iran Victory Lap Is Premature
President Trump's declaration of "total victory" in Iran left some close allies and several senior aides worried Wednesday that he is overstating what is a fragile cease-fire with Tehran, which remains capable of blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and attacking U.S. forces in the region.
The president has been advised on the risks that could cause the cease-fire to crater and warned that Iran still retains dangerous military capabilities, according to multiple officials.
Can Longtime Car Executive Luca De Meo Kick the House of Gucci Into Gear?
Inside a converted chocolate factory outside of Milan, a master goldsmith sat at a workstation, shaping a strip of metal into filigree so fine it resembled lace. Hole by hole, she cut the pattern by hand, using a hair-thin steel wire and a technique that was almost monastic in its repetition.
In the building, roughly 100 artisans were performing precise functions, from molding and casting to stone setting and polishing, producing high-end rings and necklaces for the Pomellato brand that would eventually appear at fashion galas and high-society dinners around the world.
Why BlackRock Is Weathering the Private Credit Storm Better Than Peers
BlackRock went on an acquisition spree in the past few years to juice its growth in private markets, Wall Street's hottest area.
But these days, with investors' faith in that sector shaken, it is BlackRock's steady, if less glamorous, public-markets business that has the company on stronger footing than rivals.
Court Denies Anthropic Request to End Defense Department Punishment
WASHINGTON-A federal appeals court on Wednesday denied Anthropic's request for relief from the Defense Department declaring the company a supply-chain risk, complicating the legal battle between the U.S. government and one of the country's leading artificial-intelligence companies.
While Anthropic has sustained financial harm from the Pentagon's actions, the appeals court said that it didn't feel strongly enough to override the government on a matter of national security. A separate court in California recently granted Anthropic a preliminary injunction to stop President Trump's broader ban on all federal agencies using the company's Claude models.
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Expected Major Events for Thursday
04:30/NED: Feb Consumer Spending
04:30/NED: Mar CPI
06:00/GER: Feb Foreign Trade
06:00/FIN: Feb Foreign trade
06:00/GER: Feb Industrial Production Index
06:00/DEN: Feb External trade (provisional figures)
06:00/DEN: Feb Balance of payments (provisional figures)
06:00/ROM: Feb International trade
06:00/NOR: Mar PPI
07:00/SPN: Feb Industrial Production
07:00/CZE: Feb Industry, Construction
07:00/AUT: Jan Foreign Trade
07:00/SVK: Feb Foreign trade
08:00/BUL: Feb Industrial Production
08:30/UK: 1Q Bank of England Bank Liabilities Survey
08:30/UK: 1Q Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey
09:00/EU: 4Q Quarterly sectoral accounts
09:00/EU: 4Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
09:00/CRO: Feb Foreign Trade
09:00/POR: Feb International trade statistics
09:00/MLT: Feb International Trade
09:00/CYP: Feb Foreign Trade (provisional)
09:00/GRE: Feb Industrial Production Index
10:00/IRL: Feb Industrial Production and Turnover
10:00/IRL: Mar CPI
11:00/UKR: Mar CPI
16:59/POL: Polish interest rate decision
23:01/UK: Mar BRC-Sensormatic IQ Footfall Monitor
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 09, 2026 00:02 ET (04:02 GMT)
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