By Caitlin McCabe
Investors are no longer seeing a Fed cut this year as a long shot.
Expectations for a U.S. interest-rate cut have inched up in the last few days, with traders now seeing a roughly 34% chance that rates end this year lower. That's a sharp difference from this time last week, when investors were putting the odds around 14%, according to data from CME Group.
To be sure, the consensus is that the Federal Reserve is much likelier to hold rates steady as officials grapple with an energy shock induced by the war in Iran that has already caused inflation to jump. Yet last week's cease-fire agreement-and the resulting fall in energy prices-has led some investors to rethink how long those pressures will last, and how widely they will spread.
The latest fund manager survey from Bank of America also suggests investors are feeling optimistic about monetary policy. Some 58% of global investors surveyed between April 2 and April 9 said they expect the Fed to cut rates in the next 12 months.
Among the other notable results from the survey:
-- Fund managers expect oil to trade at $84 a barrel by the end of this year.
-- Global investor sentiment reached its most bearish level since last June. The bank's sentiment indicator is based on cash levels, stock allocations and global growth expectations.
-- 70% of those surveyed said a recession looks unlikely.
This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2026 09:23 ET (13:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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