The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0805 GMT - Green bonds supply is expected to pick up as the war in the Middle East de-escalates, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Green bonds issuance started strong in early 2026, but the Middle East conflict interrupted bonds supply in March, Valencia says. "We believe that as the conflict in the Middle East calms down, we expect overall issuance volumes to rise, and green bond issuance to surpass the levels seen back in 2024." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - Bank Indonesia is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for the rest of the year as it remains focused on keeping the rupiah stable, Nomura economists say in a note. The central bank kept its rate steady in March while shifting to a more hawkish tone, removing its previous guidance that it sees scope to lower rates later in the year. "We are not penciling rate hikes by BI for now, but the risk will rise if [balance of payments] pressures intensify and BI's reserve adequacy metrics fall more significantly," Nomura says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0723 GMT - The DXY dollar index consolidates just above 98 in Asia trading amid reports indicating the U.S. and Iran are looking for another round of talks to end the war, says Joe Capurso, head of international economics at CBA. It wouldn't be a surprise if the two-week ceasefire is extended to accommodate further talks, he adds. Still, the world economy will need to adjust to smaller energy supply, he says. Interest rate increases will help bring demand into line with supply. The dollar should continue to benefit from slower growth in the world economy because it is a safe haven currency, Capurso adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0721 GMT - The Australian dollar broke through resistance near US$0.7100 in Asian trading amid hopes for more peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The Aussie dollar may strengthen further in the near term, says Joe Capurso, head of global economics at CBA. The Aussie dollar now trades at US$0.7140. Still, the Aussie dollar remains susceptible to a downward correction if optimism around a quick end to the Iran war fades, he adds. May is the likely timing for a comprehensive peace deal, Capurso says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0715 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as declining oil prices ease investor concerns about the risk of inflation. Markets have cut back their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates and currently price in a 12% chance of a BOE rate rise in April, down from a 20% chance priced last week, LSEG data show. Brent crude is relatively steady at $94.7 per barrel but around 8% lower since the start of the week. Ten-year gilt yields fall 4 basis points to last trade at 4.752%, a one-week low, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0707 GMT - Bitcoin edges slightly lower as continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz outweighs hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks. The Wall Street Journal reports that a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and eight oil tankers have obeyed direction from U.S. forces to reverse course. However, President Trump told Fox Business that he thinks the war is close to over and Iran wants to make a deal very badly. Uncertainty over the conflict leaves investors cautious over risky assets including cryptocurrenies. Bitcoin falls 0.3% to $73,934 after reaching a 10-week high of $76,073 Tuesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0704 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in early trade, tracking U.S. Treasury yields, as investors tentatively believe in the potential for a lasting peace in the Middle East. The U.S. Central Command said that a blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that U.S. forces are maintaining maritime superiority in the Middle East. The prospect of fresh peace talks between the U.S. and Iran also give hope for cautious optimism. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 3.1 basis points to 3.000% and Italy's 10-year BTP yield is down 3.7 basis points at 3.751%, according to Tradeweb. Italy plans a dual-tranche bond syndication on Wednesday while Germany has a triple-tranche auction of ultra-long Bunds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0651 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia is probably right to worry whether current interest rate settings are too easy, says Lachlan Dynan, Macro Strategist at Deutsche Bank. Recent data, including credit growth numbers, have been surprisingly resilient. Credit growth accelerated again in February, the month of the RBA's first interest rate increase this year, he says. Meanwhile, house prices have also been strong even after consecutive rate increases and the early impact of the Middle East war. The most rate-sensitive aspects of the economy have been resilient enough to raise questions on whether the current level of policy is sufficiently restrictive, he adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; Twitter @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0642 GMT - The dollar trades steady after reaching a six-week low Tuesday driven by reduced safe-haven flows and lower oil prices on hopes for new peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump told Fox Business that he thinks the war is close to over and Iran wants to make a deal. However, U.S. naval forces have intercepted eight oil tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports since the start of the blockade on Monday, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing a U.S. official. Uncertainty over the situation keeps the dollar from extending Tuesday's losses with investors awaiting more concrete progress towards a peace deal. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.157 after falling to as low as 97.969 Tuesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0602 GMT - Commerzbank expects Italy's treasury to issue a total of 20 billion euros at Wednesday's upcoming dual-tranche government bond syndication. Italy plans to syndicate a new 10-year, July 2036-dated nominal bond, or BTP, and a new 20-year, February 2046-dated BTPei, a bond indexed to eurozone HICP ex-tobacco. Besides the syndication, Germany will auction a total of 3 billion euros in 2048-, 2052- and 2056-dated Bunds and Greece will auction up to 250 million euros June 2036-dated bonds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0556 GMT - Southeast Asia and India may only have 7-15 days of strategic oil reserve coverage left, PGIM says in a note. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to squeeze global reserves of crude oil and derivatives, says the asset management arm of Prudential Financial. The Philippines has already declared a national energy emergency--and elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, major economies such as Japan and South Korea have around 4 to 10 weeks of coverage, says PGIM. Despite ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, PGIM assigns a roughly 70% probability to a negotiated settlement or cease-fire extension, citing the economic and political ramifications for both sides. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0556 GMT - German government bond yields reached the lower bound of SEB's targets it had set on March 3 for an "extended conflict" scenario in the Middle East. "We think the risk of a significant further selloff is declining," SEB's Jussi Hiljanen and Filip Carlsson say in a note. In SEB's "extended conflict" scenario of several months, which assumed Brent crude at around $100 per barrel, it set the German 10-year Bund yield at 3.00%-3.20% and the two-year Schatz yield at 2.70%-2.80%, and envisaged markets discounting 50 to 75 basis points of European Central Bank rate hikes this year. "The short-end repricing was largely completed, with 75-80bp of rate hikes priced in before the ceasefire announcement, and two-year and 10-year yields moved into our target range." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2026 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT)
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