Morning Crypto Report — XRP Scores Best ETF Week Since February With $11.75 Million, Bitcoin Fails $74,000 Breakout Ahead of Tuesday's April 14 PPI Data, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Coils for 33% Move as Volatility Hits Rare Lows

utoday04-12 13:41

TL;DR XRP ETF surge: Recorded $11.75 million in weekly net inflows, best since February, driven by U.S. Clarity Act optimism and the Middle East de-escalation.Bitcoin’s macro pressure: BTC holds $71,...

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Bollinger Bands suggest a potential 33% move as volatility hits rare lows.Crypto market outlook: Digital assets remain caught between institutional demand and geopolitical risks, with focus shifting to the April 28 Federal Reserve meeting.XRP strengthens its position on the back of record ETF inflowsWhile the crypto market is searching for a unified direction, XRP is showing rare resilience, not on the price chart, but in exchange-traded funds. Over the past week, instruments based on the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization recorded net inflows of $11.75 million, as per SoSoValue, marking the best result since February of this year, potentially signaling a return of interest from large players, who make up the majority of XRP ETF buyers.Total net assets across XRP ETFs have reached $968.15 million, which still represents 1.16% of XRP’s total market capitalization.Total XRP Spot ETF Net Inflow, Source: SoSoValueTwo factors can be indirectly identified as outweighing market skepticism toward XRP and crypto ETFs in general:Progress in discussions around the Clarity Act in the United States, which is being interpreted by traditional finance as a final resolution in the long-standing debate over crypto asset classification. This effectively unlocks participation from conservative funds and benefits XRP, which is often paired with the Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin operating on XRP Ledger and positioned as one of the key beneficiaries of the law if adopted.Temporary de-escalation in the Middle East, which has reduced fear levels, slightly strengthened risk appetite and restarted capital inflows. Against this backdrop, XRP has even stabilized in the $1.35-$1.40 range.The focus now shifts to the second half of April, particularly macro data releases. These include the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve rate decision at the end of the month.If the coming weeks show softer rhetoric supported by data, which currently does not appear to be the case, then the ongoing inflows into XRP ETFs could form the basis for a move toward yearly highs.Why April 14 PPI data could rewrite scenario for BitcoinOne of the most tense weeks of the year is beginning for the crypto market. Despite ongoing turbulence, Bitcoin continues to hold the $71,000 level, while investor attention, from retail to institutional, is shifting from price charts to the economic calendar. The key trigger here is the release of the Producer Price Index this Tuesday, April 14.Last week clearly reshaped market sentiment. On April 10, consumer inflation rose to 3.3%. The main driver was geopolitical tensions directly impacting oil and energy prices with double-digit increases. Now, the market is logically concerned about a second wave of inflation.If PPI, reflecting wholesale prices, confirms forecasts and rises to 5.9%, it could signal that production costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers, accelerating inflation further. The main risk for Bitcoin holders is not just weakening demand, but the forced reaction of the Federal Reserve. While six months ago analysts expected rate cuts in 2026, the possibility of rate hikes is now returning to the agenda.Weekly Bitcoin price action, Source: TradingViewOn one hand, Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset. Rising bond yields and tighter monetary policy pressure liquidity. On the other hand, its status as digital gold continues to attract capital seeking a hedge, especially amid geopolitical instability and risks of fiat devaluation due to inflation.The April 14 PPI data will not be the final verdict, but it will either give the market breathing room or close the window for monetary easing expectations in the coming months, triggering a repricing of risk assets to the downside.SHIB in \"quiet mode\": Record volatility compression signals preparation for major newsAs the market readies for a new week, Shiba Inu (SHIB) has entered a phase of abnormal technical calm, while the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart shows one of the tightest compressions in the past year and a half. Such periods historically precede sharp impulses, according to classical trading concepts. If that holds, the only question for Shiba Inu now is the trigger and direction.At present, SHIB's price, as per TradingView, is anchored to the middle Bollinger Band around $0.0000058. The distance between the upper and lower bands has narrowed to just over 7.5%, forming a classic accumulation pattern.This setup suggests a potential front-run scenario, where an unknown market participant is accumulating a position, either long or short, anticipating an upcoming event or news that will trigger a volatility spike and allow them to capitalize on it.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price adjusted to Bollinger Bands, Source: TradingViewIf the news turns out to be positive, a breakout above the $0.0000065 level could trigger a cascade of buying and short liquidations, pushing the price quickly toward $0.000008. If the scenario turns bearish in the near term, the price may move down toward the $0.0000053 support level and below.In essence, the Shiba Inu coin is currently a compressed spring. Periods of low volatility always end with expansion. The key variable is what catalyst will drive that move and what news awaits holders of this widely-followed meme asset.Crypto market outlook: Bitcoin caught between geopolitics and institutional demandThe market is in a phase of elevated turbulence, driven primarily not by internal factors but by external developments disrupting standard cycles. Bitcoin is balancing between institutional accumulation, including through ETFs, and panic selling driven by risks in the Middle East.Key points:Bitcoin (BTC): Over the weekend, it dropped from a local high of $73,700 to $71,000 following a breakdown in negotiations and renewed uncertainty around energy supply. Support is holding for now, but a break below could trigger a decline toward $60,000, the April low.The key upcoming events remain the PPI release on April 14 and the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29, where the direction of interest rates will be decided. 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