By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 13.
Developments in the Middle East will continue to be the focus of investors' attention. The agreement of a two-week cease-fire has been broadly welcomed by markets, causing oil prices and bond yields to fall, but the truce looks fragile and many uncertainties remain. The outcome of talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend will be watched closely.
The International Monetary Fund is due to hold meetings during the week, when it will announce economic forecasts and its assessment of the consequences of the war in Iran.
U.S. economic data, including producer price figures, will be watched for any clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Inflation data are due in Europe, while Asia's week is spearheaded by a heavy run of indicators out of China, inflation prints from India and Malaysia, and a monetary policy decision in Singapore.
U.S.
Producer-price data for March due Tuesday will give clues on how the war in the Middle East and the consequent spike in energy prices have fed through into pipeline inflationary pressures. It comes after data showed U.S. annual consumer price inflation rose sharply to 3.3% last month.
"So far, the [energy-price] shock has had little impact on non-energy prices. However, this is likely to change soon," Commerzbank economists said in a note.
Commerzbank expects that the Federal Reserve will "look past the rise in inflation" for now and keep key interest rates unchanged in the coming months. Ultimately, however, the rate outlook will depend on how long the energy-price shock lasts and how quickly inflation "returns to normal," the economists said.
Currently, U.S. money markets price in unchanged interest rates for the rest of 2026, with a small chance of a rate cut towards year-end, LSEG data showed.
Forward-looking surveys for April will provide further indications on the impact of the war, including the Empire State manufacturing survey on Wednesday and the Philadelphia Fed index on Thursday.
Other data include March existing home sales figures on Monday, followed by March industrial production figures and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday.
Eurozone
Final inflation data for March are due from Spain on Tuesday, France on Wednesday, Italy and the eurozone on Thursday.
The European Central Bank will publish the accounts of its March policy meeting on Thursday, potentially adding further considerations on its thinking about inflation and growth risks stemming from the Middle East war.
Eurozone industrial production figures for February are released on Wednesday.
Germany will auction April 2031 Bobl on Tuesday and August 2048-, August 2052- and August 2056-dated Bunds on Wednesday. The Netherlands will hold a bond auction on Tuesday, Greece on Wednesday, while Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday.
U.K.
U.K. gross domestic product figures for February are released on Thursday and are expected to show some improvement following zero growth in January.
"January's reading was disappointing with GDP flat on the month, but we look for a +0.3% rebound this month," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note.
Industrial production and trade data for February are also scheduled for Thursday.
The U.K. plans to launch a new July 2036 gilt via syndication on the week commencing April 13. It will also sell September 2049 index-linked gilts on Thursday.
Scandinavia
Sweden's final inflation print for March will be published on Tuesday. Preliminary data showed the consumer price index with fixed interest rate fell to 1.6% year-on-year in March from 1.7% in February, below expectations. This was partly due to base effects and the krona's appreciation last year, Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke said in a note. However, the spike in oil prices due to the Iran war means inflation could pick up, she said.
"Therefore, in my opinion, there is no reason to expect a change in the Riksbank's stance for the time being," Praefcke said.
Norway will hold a bond auction Wednesday and Sweden will auction inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
Japan
Investors will closely monitor a speech by Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda on Monday for clues on the central bank's next interest-rate hike. While market pricing for an April increase has receded since the U.S. forged a cease-fire with Iran that soothed inflationary fears, market participants still anticipate the BOJ to act in the coming months.
The BOJ is scheduled to make outright purchases of four sectors of Japan's government bond market on Wednesday. These include sovereign securities with tenors of more than one year and up to three years, those with tenors of more than five years and up to 10 years, and those with tenors of more than 25 years. The planned purchases are expected to provide support to the domestic bond market.
The ministry of finance is scheduled to auction about 700 billion yen of 20-year JGBs on Tuesday.
As seen in the recent 30-year JGB auction, even in "opaque" conditions, investors are willing to step in when valuations become cheap versus the supply-demand backdrop, Barclays' FICC Research team said. "In that context, [the] 20-year auction will serve as a test of investors' stance toward the superlong sector."
Australia/New Zealand
The calendar in Australia will be dominated by commentary by central bankers, with three appearances by senior staff from the Reserve Bank of Australia set to help illuminate money markets on how policymakers are viewing the fallout from the war in the Middle East.
Deputy Gov. Andrew Hauser will speak twice during the week, while the RBA's chief economist, Sarah Hunter, will round out the series of talks.
The RBA has already raised interest rates twice this year in response to a generalized rise in inflation. Most economists expect it will continue to hike if rising fuel costs translate into higher inflationary expectations.
The RBA's next policy meeting is in May, and financial markets expect a rise in the official cash rate given that achieving the inflation target now seems further away than it did at the start of the year.
The release of March employment data on Thursday will also be a critical moment since the jobless numbers remain low and the RBA feels as if there remains some tightness in the labor market.
China
A flood of economic data is in store for China watchers, coming on the heels of data that sent encouraging signals on reflation.
The main run of indicators kicks off with trade data for March on Tuesday, which a WSJ poll of economists expects will show a solid 8% on year rise in exports
But the showstopper comes Thursday, when first-quarter growth data is set to show how the economy fared in what has so far been a turbulent year. The print will set the tone for expectations on how China will perform this year.
The WSJ survey tips quarterly growth at 4.9% on the year, versus 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and 5.4% in 1Q of 2025.
DBS economists expect growth to have improved from 4Q thanks to strong external demand for Chinese goods. Double-digit growth in trade is expected to underpin resilient industrial production, despite the tensions in the Middle East and Beijing's campaign against overcapacity.
The GDP release comes alongside retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial output numbers, which will shed light on consumption and investing activity.
According to the WSJ poll, retail sales grew 2.3% in March, while industrial output expanded 5.5%. That would compare with combined January-February readings of 2.7% and 6.3%, respectively. FAI, which was up 1.8% over the first two months, is tipped at 2%.
ING economists expect economic activity data to remain rather soft in March, except for industrial production.
On Thursday, eyes are also on house price figures that markets will hope show notable signs of improvement in the property sector slump.
The ING team expects housing prices to stay in negative territory, but see any moderation in the downturn as an encouraging sign.
"Declining property prices continue to erode household wealth, suggesting that consumption will likely remain subdued in the near term," DBS's economics team said.
Singapore
Singapore will release a slew of data during the week, headlined by a monetary policy decision and advanced growth data for the first quarter.
Growth is likely to have slowed in the period due to a pullback in manufacturing activity, while non-oil domestic exports for March are expected to moderate as rising global energy prices weighed modestly on external demand, Barclays economists said.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to tighten its policy stance in its statement due Tuesday as it eyes the effect of the Middle East conflict on inflation, said ANZ Research.
ANZ projects that the central bank will slightly increase the slope of its policy band, while leaving its other policy levers untouched. The MAS uses the exchange rate as a policy tool as trade flows dwarf Singapore's domestic activity.
India
India's inflation print for March is likely to show a pickup in price pressures, in line with the uptick seen across most of Asia during the first full month since the Middle East war broke out.
A WSJ poll projects that Monday's release will indicate that consumer inflation accelerated to 3.48% on the year last month from 3.21% in February.
Economists at DBS reckon that the headline jump likely partially reflects an increase in cooking gas, energy index and ex-factory input costs. Retail fuel and food costs likely stayed benign.
Core inflation--which strips out some volatile items--is likely to stay below 4%, reducing the need for the central bank to assume a hawkish stance near-term, DBS said. "We expect the impact of higher energy prices to gradually percolate in the coming months as replacement supplies arrive with a lag."
Malaysia
Malaysia will release its first-quarter advanced GDP print and March inflation data on Friday.
First-quarter growth is expected to have eased to 5.3% from 6.3% in the prior quarter, according to ANZ economists. Early-year data showed stronger agriculture, but softer industrial output and retail activity, as well as resilient electronics production, ANZ noted.
Downside risks from the Middle East conflict are not yet reflected, the bank noted, with March visitor arrivals up just 2.4% and Middle East arrivals plunging 40%.
March inflation could edge up to 1.7% from 1.4% in February, with higher fuel costs only partly reflected due to subsidies, ANZ said. High-frequency data suggest food prices remained contained. Limited demand pressures and Middle East uncertainties should keep the central bank on hold in the near term, it added.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 12, 2026 17:00 ET (21:00 GMT)
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