Global economy better placed to weather oil shock, recession bar higher

Bloomberg04-13 19:15

The global economy is better positioned than in the past to absorb an oil shock, even if a prolonged disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz drives prices toward US$100 a barrel, Citi said...

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The shock required to push the economy into recession is now larger,” Citi wrote, pointing to greater resilience on the part of businesses and households as a key reason.Economic resilience would depend less on policy support, constrained by high public debt and stagflation risks and more on the private sector’s ability to adjust, with firms reworking supply chains and costs while households curb spending, conserve energy and shift to alternatives.The brokerage also noted that the global economy has previously endured sustained periods of high oil prices without falling into recession.Under Citi’s baseline forecast, the economy could absorb an oil shock near $100 a barrel, with growth slowing but staying positive.Latest updates on international news hereIn a severe case, oil near $110 for months could drag global growth below 2% and lift recession risks.“Even if resilience has indeed increased and the global economy is well positioned for a further shock, this is not absolute insurance against adverse outcomes... (but) the magnitude of the shock necessary is larger than was the case a decade or two ago,” Citi added.(Reporting by Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2627120430","isCrawlerRequest":true}