Is It Time To Reassess Avantor (AVTR) After A 45% One Year Share Price Slide?

Simply Wall St.04-16

This article examines whether Avantor's current share price reflects its underlying value, or if the market may be undervaluing or overvaluing the company, by focusing on what the numbers indicate ...

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The year to date return is a 27.0% decline and the 1 year return is a 45.1% decline, extending to a 59.5% decline over 3 years and a 74.0% decline over 5 years.\nThese moves come against...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AVTR":"Avantor, Inc.","BK4121":"生命科学工具和服务","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"Avantor(AVTR)股价一年下跌45%后，是时候重新评估它了吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"AVTR":1.5},"content_text":"This article examines whether Avantor's current share price reflects its underlying value, or if the market may be undervaluing or overvaluing the company, by focusing on what the numbers indicate about value. Avantor last closed at US$8.37, with a 4.6% return over the past week and 10.0% over the past month. The year to date return is a 27.0% decline and the 1 year return is a 45.1% decline, extending to a 59.5% decline over 3 years and a 74.0% decline over 5 years. These moves come against a backdrop of ongoing interest in life sciences tools and consumables, where investors are reassessing how much they are willing to pay for companies exposed to research, biopharma and industrial demand. Broader sector conversations around spending discipline, capital allocation and balance sheet strength are helping shape how the market currently values Avantor. Avantor currently has a valuation score of 5 out of 6. The rest of this article walks through what different valuation approaches suggest about the stock, and concludes with a way to put those numbers in a broader context so you can assess value for yourself.  Find out why Avantor's -45.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Avantor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars, aiming to estimate what the entire business could be worth right now based on those projected cash flows. For Avantor, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, built on cash flow projections expressed in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $487 million. Analyst inputs and extrapolations point to projected free cash flow of around $553 million in 2026 and $739 million by 2029, with further estimates extending out to 2035, all discounted back to reflect today’s value of those future dollars. Pulling those pieces together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$15.70 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$8.37, this model implies the shares trade at a 46.7% discount to that intrinsic value. This points to Avantor appearing undervalued on this cash flow based approach. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Avantor is undervalued by 46.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 60 more high quality undervalued stocks. AVTR Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Avantor. Approach 2: Avantor Price vs Sales For companies where investors focus on revenue scale and market position, the P/S ratio is a useful yardstick because it compares what you pay per share to the sales that each share represents. It is often used when earnings are less informative, but revenue remains a key anchor for valuation. What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio typically reflects how quickly revenue is expected to grow and how risky those cash flows appear. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify higher multiples, while slower growth or higher risk usually call for lower ones. Avantor currently trades on a P/S of 0.86x. This sits below the Life Sciences industry average P/S of 3.18x and below the broader peer group average of 4.71x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Avantor is 2.50x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary view of what P/S might be reasonable after considering factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk. Because the Fair Ratio adjusts for these company specific drivers, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages. Set against the current 0.86x, the Fair Ratio of 2.50x suggests Avantor screens as undervalued on a sales based basis. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:AVTR P/S Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Avantor Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so on Simply Wall St you can use Narratives. These let you attach a clear story about Avantor to the numbers by linking your view of its customers, contracts, margins and balance sheet to a forecast for revenue, earnings and P/E, then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price. This may help with deciding whether to buy or sell, all within a Community page that updates automatically when new information such as analyst targets, earnings or buybacks is added. Different investors can sit anywhere between a more cautious Fair Value of about US$8.00, a more optimistic view closer to US$16.13, or the US$19.00 bull target, depending on which assumptions they find most reasonable. For Avantor, however, we will make it easy for you with previews of two leading Avantor Narratives: 🐂 Avantor Bull Case Fair Value: US$10.88 Implied discount to this Fair Value: 23.1% undervalued Revenue growth used in this view: 1.49% a year  Analysts in this camp see Avantor benefiting from long term demand for biopharma and healthcare products, supported by contract wins and extended relationships with large customers. A multi year cost program and focus on higher value solutions are expected to support margin improvement and stronger free cash flow over time. This view accepts current pressures on pricing and bioprocessing as near term headwinds, but assumes they are manageable within a broader recovery in earnings power.  🐻 Avantor Bear Case Fair Value: US$8.00 Implied premium to this Fair Value: 4.6% overvalued Revenue growth used in this view: 0.96% a year  More cautious analysts are focused on margin pressure from higher costs, tougher pricing and the risk that some lab consumables lose relevance as labs automate and adopt new technology. This view builds in slower revenue growth and lower long term profitability, with earnings power seen as more volatile and sensitive to setbacks at key customers. While acknowledging contracts, cost control efforts and leadership experience, this camp sees less room for upside relative to current pricing.  These two Narratives sit on the same data but reach very different conclusions. This is why it can help to test which assumptions feel closer to your own expectations for Avantor before making any decision. Do you think there's more to the story for Avantor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:AVTR 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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