The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1815 ET - J.B. Hunt Transport Services executives say a lot has changed since January. In the past quarter, the logistics company's management team has seen a fundamental shift in capacity, they tell analysts on Wednesday's earnings call. Capacity tightened throughout the quarter, but at a quicker-than-expected pace due to regulatory enforcement, executives say. The regulatory changes are aimed at improving safety and removing non-compliant truck capacity. Spot prices have also changed rapidly, which happened in the two previous up cycles, they say. "While predicting inflection points is never precise, we believe we are on a path of recovery," Chief Executive Shelley Simpson says. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1537 ET - Treasurys sell off and yields rise as peace in the Middle East remains elusive while the U.S. economy keeps showing resilience. Import prices rise less than expected in March. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect weekly jobless claims to edge lower and March industrial production to be stable. Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing is next week, but his speedy confirmation as new Fed Chair is far from certain. The 10-year yield rises to 4.279% from 4.255% and the two-year increases to 3.763% from 3.750%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1434 ET - Treasury yields remain poised to resume their wartime rise as markets brace for the hearing next week of President Trump's nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May. The nominee, Kevin Warsh, will likely face questions about his willingness to resist political pressures over monetary policy. Senator Tillis threatens to block any nomination until the Justice Department drops a probe on Powell's handling of the Fed building renovation, something the administration refuses to do. Oil rises a little as the U.S. Iran blockade continues. The WSJ Dollar Index is stable. The 10-year yield is at 4.283% and the two-year at 3.766%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1338 ET - Canadian spending firmed slightly last month and underlying activity continued to stabilize despite further softness in outlays on discretionary goods, cardholder tracking by Royal Bank of Canada shows. Spending on gasoline jumped 9.1% as the conflict in the Middle East drove fuel prices higher. Excluding gas, spending was still up but the pace slowed from February and remained weak on a three-month average, the bank said. RBC's tracking of sales stripping out volatile categories showed purchases rose 1% on-month but only 0.1% on-year, and were up 0.3% on a three-month average. Services categories remained the primary source of non-gasoline related growth, with entertainment and arts leading gains. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1216 ET - Market prediction platform Kalshi says that it has added new contracts that be traded tied to commodity prices. The firm says that it has launched a new "Commodities Hub" that expands the amount of commodities that can be bet on using the platform. "Amid recent geopolitical uncertainty - the war in Iran, rising inflation, and political shifts in many of the world's most powerful countries - the commodities market has exploded both in volume and volatility," Kalshi said. In addition to oil and gold, the platform now includes lesser-traded assets like coffee, copper, sugar, and wheat, that will trade 24/7, allowing for "pricing functionality amid after-hours volatility." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1058 ET - The euro-denominated high-yield credit market recorded weak performance in the first quarter due to the Middle East conflict, BNP Paribas Asset Management's Olivier Monnoyeur says in a note. The segment had a strong start to 2026 as European corporates had strong financial positions. However, the start of the war led to reduced demand for risky assets, hurting euro high-yield debt, Monnoyeur says. The asset class performance since the start of the year stands at minus 1.65%, he says. "The [risk assets] selloff erased the gains accumulated earlier in the quarter and highlighted the asset class's sensitivity to energy prices and to shifts in rates expectations." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1041 ET - In Poland, there are no signs of a broad-based inflation surge just yet, Adam Antoniak at ING says in a note. Inflation rose to 3.0% in March, from 2.1% in February. This was almost entirely driven by fuel prices, which jumped following the outbreak of war in Iran, Antoniak says. Core inflation rose only slightly. While much will depend on how long the conflict plays out, Polish inflation is expected to rise only moderately in the coming months, remaining within the National Bank of Poland's target range this year, he says. "We expect the NBP's main policy rate to remain at 3.75% until the end of the year, and the Council appears more inclined to resume interest‑rate cuts than to raise rates," Antoniak says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1040 ET - Sterling could fall if U.K. economic growth data for February on Thursday are weak, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Given some hopes the Iran war could soon end and optimism that the inflationary impact of the conflict could avoid worst-case scenarios, weak growth data could further dampen speculation of Bank of England interest-rate rises, she says. The data come after the International Monetary Fund cut its U.K. growth forecast for 2026 on Tuesday. "It is Rabo's view that the BOE will favor one rate hike this spring, and that it will be reluctant to move further on rates given the risks to demand destruction." Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3551. The euro trades flat at 0.8692 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1037 ET - The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% in the coming months, rather than raise interest rates, Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica says in a note. Investors are pricing in one quarter-point BOE interest-rate rise by September and a 40% probability of a second rate rise by year-end due to inflation concerns, LSEG data show. The Middle East conflict has raised the U.K.'s inflation risk, but a weak jobs market could limit rises in inflation, Skarica says. If the global energy supply resumes normal levels, the BOE could signal interest-rate cuts from the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest, she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1015 ET - U.S. Import prices increased less than expected last month, despite sharply higher energy costs tied to the war in Iran, according to data published by the BLS. Import prices climbed 0.8% in March, while economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecasted a 2.4% increase. Prices for import petroleum and petroleum products increased by 9.4%. Import prices for fuels and lubricants rose 2.9%, the largest monthly advance since January of last year. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1011 ET - Upcoming U.K. local district elections could dampen demand for sterling if concerns about Prime Minister Keir Starmer's future resurface, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The International Monetary Fund cut its U.K. growth forecast for 2026 on Tuesday, which adds another challenge for the ruling Labour Party ahead of May local elections and parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland, she says. A defeat for the Labour party would increase the chance of a leadership challenge for Starmer, she says. The risk of such an event could prevent speculators from betting on a stronger sterling. The euro trades flat at 0.8692 pounds. Rabobank expects it to reach 0.88 by autumn. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1009 ET - Kevin Warsh has long championed a smaller balance sheet for the Fed. But Wall Street appears skeptical that he'll be able to achieve that goal as Fed chair. Eight times a year, the New York Fed surveys major trading desks, and one of the questions solicits forecasts about how the Fed's balance sheet will change in the future. In January, before Warsh was nominated, the median response projected a Fed balance sheet of $7.384 trillion at the end of 2028. In the latest survey, the first after Warsh's nomination, the projection fell by just a hair, to $7.35 trillion. The Fed's balance sheet totaled $6.694 trillion in the latest week. So Wall Street is firm in its expectations that the Fed's assets will continue to grow, not shrink. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2026 18:15 ET (22:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments