The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1125 GMT - The dollar turns higher along with oil prices as energy supplies remain disrupted due to the Middle East conflict and there is uncertainty over the timing of expected fresh U.S.-Iran peace talks. Central mediator Pakistan said no date had yet been set for the negotiations. The U.S. has implemented a blockade of Iranian ports and Iran has threatened to retaliate by blocking ships in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea. The dollar benefits from higher oil prices as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. It is also considered a safe haven asset. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.167 after reaching a six-week low of 97.832 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1106 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default falls amid prospects of the U.S. and Iran resuming peace talks. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the Middle East conflict will be resolved in the near term. "This optimism is reflected not only in lower oil prices but also in greater risk appetite," ActivTrades' Ricardo Evangelista says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 3 basis points to last trade at 280bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS falls 1bps to 56bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1100 GMT - Eurozone inflation is headed for 3%, and could settle at this level for some time, Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. Inflation rose to 2.6% in March, above the first estimate of 2.5%. While financial markets are expecting an end to the conflict in Iran in due course, a significant inflation shock is still on the way, Vistesen says. Pantheon expects inflation to hit 2.8% in April, driven by energy prices. And while energy inflation is expected to decline next year, core inflation is forecast to rebound. Vistesen says a modest but sustained uptick in inflation could see the ECB raise rates and hold them at a higher level. Meanwhile, more extreme scenarios could lead to aggressive hikes followed by cuts soon after. Pantheon forecasts two rate hikes this year. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1038 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields mostly fall as hopes remain for an eventual U.S.-Iran peace deal. Yields on very long-dated Treasurys rise, however, as uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict remain and investors are cautious. "Although the war in Iran is becoming a secondary concern for investors, negative headlines that suggest that the end of the conflict is not imminent can still move price action," says XTB's Kathleen Brooks in a note. The two-year Treasury yield falls 1.7 basis points to 3.748% and the 10-year Treasury yield is down 0.3 basis points to 4.275%. However, the 30-year yield rises 0.8 basis points to 4.899%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0934 GMT - Goldman Sachs economists raise their forecast for U.K. first-quarter growth to 0.57% quarter-on-quarter, up from an earlier forecast of 0.22% growth, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth for February. U.K. monthly GDP expanded 0.5% in February, above the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth by economists in a WSJ survey. Economic growth is nonetheless expected to slow in the coming months due to the impact of higher energy prices, Goldman Sach's James Moberly says in a note. "We continue to expect a slowdown in the sequential growth pace through the rest of the year given the impact of the conflict in the Middle East," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0931 GMT - Oil prices are possibly past their peak despite continuing Middle East tensions, according to Julius Baer's Norbert Rucker in commentary. Demand for crude oil still exceeds supply, and trade around Hormuz has to normalize eventually to avoid a bigger shock, the head of economics and next generation research says. However, the worst might be over. "The current crisis seems most comparable to the 1990 Gulf War, which at the time caused a short-lived price shock. Taking this as a reference, oil prices are possibly past their peak," he says. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 1.1% higher at $92.33 a barrel; front-month Brent crude futures are 1.5% higher at $96.36 a barrel. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0924 GMT - VAT Group's sales guidance for the second quarter is below expectations because of supply-chain bottlenecks linked to the Middle East conflict, UBS analysts write in a research note. The Swiss group--a key supplier to the semiconductor industry--expects sales between 265 million and 295 million Swiss francs for the current quarter, below a UBS forecast of 315 million francs. VAT Group said certain components were blocked in transit after the Iran war broke out in late February, forcing the company to defer some orders. "We think supply chain bottlenecks are playing a role in why revenues do not yet follow orders." VAT Group shares trade 0.95% lower at 561 Swiss francs. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)
0923 GMT - U.K. GDP rose by a bumper 0.5% on month in February, but March's activity PMIs suggest the war in Iran has already all but extinguished growth, Capital Economics' Ruth Gregory says in a note. Encouragingly, some of the sectors most exposed to the leap in energy prices were performing well in February, she says. Energy-intensive sectors such as mining and quarrying, transport and storage, wholesale and retail, as well as arts and entertainment, posted strong gains. The better-than-expected February outturn probably meant that GDP grew by around 0.6% on quarter in the first quarter, rather than the 0.3% previously thought, Gregory says. "But the leap in energy prices means there is unlikely to be much growth after that," she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0921 GMT - Higher energy prices risk knock-on effects for wages, but this isn't the case yet, European Central Bank rate-setter Joachim Nagel tells CNBC on the sidelines of the IMF Spring meeting. Consumers learned to react quickly to higher prices after the energy shock of 2022. "This is the reason why I believe this question around the Strait of Hormuz is so important. Because... if the oil prices are not coming down further, then the probability is rising that we will see a similar reaction function." However, it remains too early to say we are there yet, Nagel says. "So I'm really cautious to give a proper indication (of) what is the next step we have to do on the monetary policy side," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0919 GMT - U.K. GDP data for February came in stronger-than-expected, showing that the economy was building momentum before the start of the Middle East conflict, Secure Trust Bank CEO Ian Corfield says in a note. Monthly GDP grew by 0.5% in February, higher than the 0.2% growth consensus forecast by economists a WSJ survey. "There are clear signs of underlying economic strength, but the external shocks facing the U.K. economy mean both consumers and businesses are likely to remain cautious," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0901 GMT - The Iran war has boosted the performance of carry trades where investors borrow in a low interest-rate currencies to invest in ones with higher rates, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Investor bets on a weaker Japanese yen and Swiss franc have performed well along with bets on a stronger Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and sterling, he says. The Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone have strengthened as commodity exporters, while sterling has gained on markets pivoting towards expecting U.K. interest-rate rises, he says. The Swiss National Bank's threats about currency interventions have weakened the franc while rising oil prices have hit the yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0846 GMT - The euro looks vulnerable to a correction lower after its recent recovery against the dollar to levels before the Iran conflict, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Hopes for a second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks and a possible extension to the cease-fire have lifted the euro. It is surprising how quickly the euro has risen back towards $1.18, Turner says. "We are not fans of chasing it higher from here and feel it could easily correct back to $1.1700 on any adverse news." The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1783 after reaching $1.1823 overnight, its highest level since Feb. 27, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 16, 2026 07:25 ET (11:25 GMT)
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