Does First-in-Decades U.S. Smelter Plan Transform the Bull Case for Century Aluminum (CENX)?

Simply Wall St.04-15

Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminium have already announced plans to begin construction this year on a new U.S. aluminum smelter, which would more than double domestic smelting capacity and ...

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This project not only expands U.S. aluminum production but also underscores a renewed push for domestic industrial capacity at a time when supply security and manufacturing resilience are in focus. We’ll now consider how this planned first-in-decades U.S. smelter could reshape Century Aluminum’s investment narrative and future cash-flow profile. We've uncovered the 12 dividend fortresses yielding 5%+ that don't just survive market storms, but thrive in them.AdvertisementCentury Aluminum Investment Narrative RecapTo own Century Aluminum, you need to believe it can turn large, policy-supported U.S. smelting capacity into durable cash generation without overstretching its balance sheet. The planned EGA joint smelter could become the key short term catalyst if it progresses on schedule, but it also amplifies the biggest near term risk around execution, capital intensity and exposure to any future changes in tariffs or power economics. Among recent announcements, the extended power agreement and restart plan at Mt. Holly stands out beside the new EGA smelter. Together they point to a step change in U.S. production, but they also concentrate risk around power availability, project timing and the company’s ability to translate higher volumes into stronger earnings while managing higher debt and construction commitments. Yet investors should be aware that if tariffs, power terms or project costs shift, the impact on Century’s earnings profile could be far more than... Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)Century Aluminum's narrative projects $3.4 billion revenue and $1.0 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 10.8% yearly revenue growth and a $960.0 million earnings increase from $40.0 million today.Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $66.00 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesCENX 1-Year Stock Price Chart Some of the lowest analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about US$3.3 billion and earnings near US$659 million by 2029, and they focus much more on how power contracts and new capacity like the Oklahoma smelter could compress returns, so it is worth comparing their more pessimistic view with the recent project news and asking how your own expectations might differ.Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth just $66.00!The Verdict Is YoursDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.Interested In Other Possibilities?Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 29 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.Uncover the next big thing with 31 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 37 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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