The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1155 ET - The EU's new measures help the steel sector by boosting capacity utilization and preserving jobs, Axel Eggert, director general of lobby group the European Steel Association, says. "European steel has been standing at the edge of a cliff and this trade measure helps pulls us back from the brink," he says. "By curbing unsustainable import pressure, it supports viable domestic steel capacity and enables the industry to continue its decarbonization." (edith.hancock@wsj.com)
1153 ET - There's no evidence that a credit cycle is beginning in private credit, Oppenheimer analysts Chris Kotowski and John Coffey write in a note. They dismiss higher retail outflows from private credit funds as a function of negative press, arguing that the evidence doesn't suggest anything out of the ordinary within private credit. Looking at default rates for leveraged loans, they find that it follows a similar picture to rates of overall business bankruptcies and the net inflows of problem assets into the banking system. Moreover, they write, current default levels are better than both historical averages and default rates in periods of steady economic performance, such as 2003-2006 and 2012-2019. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1128 ET - BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink says global capital markets are set to grow, noting conversations with political leaders who are asking how they can build domestic capital markets in their countries, as well as momentum for a capital markets union in Europe. "I believe we're just at the beginning of growing the global capital markets," Fink says in a CNBC interview. "I do believe you're going to see the breadth and depth of the global capital markets growing, and BlackRock will be a part of that." He says BlackRock is poised to benefit from this growth, citing the firm's work across passive and active investing in both exchange-traded products and private markets, as well as its global reach and role as a leading retirement manager. BlackRock shares are up 4.3%. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1114 ET - Markets took the results of Hungary's election well, but further gains may be more limited and conditional on concrete results by Peter Magyar's Tisza government, Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews says. If there was a risk premium during Viktor Orban's leadership, it was in the low valuation of Hungary's stock market, though that already began to fade before the election, he says. While that doesn't rule out further gains in Hungary's markets on its own, it could limit their size. Indeed, there's a long list of institutional reforms and Tisza may struggle to reduce the fiscal deficit as much as it plans. "Our sense, therefore, is that to keep the party going, [Tisza] will have to show concrete results," Mathews says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1112 ET - The U.K. will be the worst affected G7 economy from the energy crisis, which is likely to push unemployment rate higher, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says. The IMF, following the OECD, has downgraded the country's growth forecast this year to 0.8%--down 0.5 percentage points. The U.K. is especially exposed due to reliance on imported gas and its role in electricity pricing, making inflation worse than elsewhere, Pugh says. Meanwhile higher starting inflation, at around 3%, will limit the Bank of England's flexibility and push up borrowing costs, he adds. "The economy was weak coming into the crisis, meaning there is loss scope for households and businesses to absorb higher prices without economic damage." The unemployment rate is therefore likely to rise further, Pugh says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Hungary's incoming Tisza government faces tight political and financial deadlines, Liam Peach at Capital Economics says in a note. The most urgent constraint is the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility deadline of August 31. This will require anti-corruption and rule-of-law reforms to unlock roughly 10 billion euros in frozen funds. The government must also deal with expiring domestic price caps on food, utilities and fuel, which risk pushing up inflation if removed too quickly, Peach says. An early budget will be needed to restore credibility and potentially unwind some Orban-era measures, he adds. "Aware of this, Tisza will likely aim for quick progress on reforms within its first month in government," Peach says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1106 ET - Yields on U.K. ten-year government bonds are unlikely to decline further in the near term as the global oil price performance dominates gilt yield performance, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. Movements in global energy prices have been the main driver of gilts since the start of the Middle East conflict, the strategists say. Given the high uncertainty surrounding the conflict, oil prices are expected to "drift back higher," raising the prospect of gilt yields rising rather than falling, RBC strategists say. Ten-year gilt yields fall 8.1 basis points to 4.786% as Brent crude drops 3.25% to $96.26 a barrel. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1102 ET - The U.K. faces the largest growth downgrade among developed nations due to the Iran war, the International Monetary Fund says in its global economic outlook. It sees GDP growth of 0.8% this year and 1.3% in 2027, down from 1.3% and 1.5% respectively in its January forecasts. Britain's high reliance on gas makes it more vulnerable to higher prices, IMF economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told a press conference in Washington, D.C. U.K. economic growth will remain weak in 2026 following a poor performance in late 2025, he said. The GDP downgrade also reflects a likely slower pace of interest-rate cuts, the IMF says. It expect inflation to pick up toward 4% in 2026 before returning to 2% by end-2027. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1043 ET - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says the longer inflation stays elevated, it erodes his optimism for rate cuts in 2026. Before the war, Goolsbee says he was on the optimistic side about 2026 and rate cuts, as long as tariff related price increases proved temporary. "If inflation does not show any improvement or sign of improvement, then the time at which my optimism can kick back in just keeps getting postponed," he says in an interview with AP at the Semafor 2026 World Economy Summit. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1007 ET - Small business optimism tumbled in March to its lowest level since 'liberation day' in April 2025, when the Trump administration rolled out reciprocal tariffs, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small businesses are more likely to absorb higher energy costs through lower profit margins rather than passing the cost on to their customers, Oxford Economics writes. The conflict in Iran is creating uncertainty for firms navigating the future cost of energy and the fallout of higher oil prices on demand for their goods and services, the firm add (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1003 ET - The dollar's positive correlation to oil prices could turn negative if the European Central Bank and Bank of England continue to worry about higher inflation more than the Federal Reserve, Macquarie strategists say in a note. "There is a lot of validity to the idea that energy-price pass-through will be greater in Europe and the U.K. as a result of continuing blockages in the Strait of Hormuz." The Fed is more balanced between its two mandates of price stability and maximum employment while the BOE and ECB suggest they are facing more one-sided inflationary pressures that are harder to look through, they say. The DXY dollar index falls 0.3% to 98.029 after earlier reaching a six-week low of 97.977. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1000 ET - The dollar could weaken further as recent developments indicate a peak in Iran war risks while the currency's high-yielding status has gone, Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos says in a note. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this year while other central banks raise rates. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers face a bigger income hit compared to Asian economies where fiscal policy is supportive, he says. There is also a shift towards the Chinese yuan to price and trade oil instead of the dollar. "We recommend selling the DXY dollar index looking for broad-based dollar weakness to new cycle lows and an eventual euro break of $1.20." The DXY dollar index falls 0.3% to 98.058. The euro rises 0.3% to $1.1797. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2026 11:55 ET (15:55 GMT)
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