Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0429 ET - The Hungarian forint could extend its gains on the country's election result if there are signs of a de-escalation in the Iran war in coming days, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. Hungary's opposition party Tisza secured a landslide victory in Sunday's election, ending Viktor Orban's 16-year rule. Markets expect this will allow for a smooth transfer of power and a faster path for unlocking EU funds, Taborksy says. However, the collapse of weekend U.S.-Iran talks "obscures the situation," weighing on risk sentiment. If the conflict calms, the euro could fall to 355-360 forints, he says. The euro drops 2.3% to a 365.30 forint after reaching a four-year low of 363.98 forint earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0359 ET - The euro's subdued falls in response to collapsed U.S.-Iran peace talks partly reflects some relief over no immediate renewed assault on energy infrastructure in the region, ING's Chris Turner says. Another factor limiting the euro's falls is the prospect of closer Hungary-EU ties after Hungary's opposition Tisza party won Sunday's election in a landslide victory, he says. "The convincing pro-EU turn among the Hungarian electorate will be very welcome news for Brussels and may prompt a pause for thought among populist Euro-skeptic political parties across Europe." Barring another significant increase in energy prices, $1.17 looks like a comfortable euro level in the near term, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1696. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0329 ET - European airlines shares fall in opening trade after the price of oil climbed back above $100 a barrel on President Trump's vow to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Wizz Air and easyJet--which were subject to rating downgrades by Bernstein before the market opened--see the biggest falls at 7.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Deutsche Lufthansa is down 3.9%, Air France-KLM loses 3.2%, while Jet2 falls 2.6% and International Consolidated Airlines Group--owner of British Airways and Iberia--drops 2.5%.(cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)
0312 ET - Lasting peace still looks a long way off in the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks writes in a note to clients. Peace talks in Pakistan broke down over the weekend, and President Trump said the U.S. would blockade the key Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran's own blockade of the strait. Oil prices again surged, and any process back toward a permanent cease-fire and reopening of the waterway will be lengthy, Brooks says. "If there are plans for more talks, then any selloff at the start of this week could be scaled back," she notes.(joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0311 ET - Oil prices haven't pushed higher despite escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, likely reflecting a mix of diplomatic engagement and efforts to avoid wider military escalation, according to ING strategists. "At least the Iranian delegation showed up in Islamabad, and the alternative of renewed destruction of energy infrastructure in the region has so far been avoided," they say. Looking ahead, market focus shifts to whether the naval blockade prompts a return to negotiations or instead triggers escalation elsewhere, particularly in the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have previously targeted shipping lanes. Markets are also watching China closely, given its reliance on Iranian crude imports. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0252 ET - Aluminum prices jump to their highest level in four years as President Trump's looming blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and failed talks with Iran threaten to further disrupt global supplies. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global output and is heavily reliant on the waterway to export aluminum and import the raw materials needed to produce the metal, with key producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. In early European trading, three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange rise 0.8% to $3,540 a metric ton, the highest since March 2022. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0234 ET - Gold prices fall as President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a prolonged energy supply shock, pushing oil back above $100 a barrel. "The sharp decline in the oil price last week restored confidence in the deflationary narrative and revived the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. "However, a surge in the oil price is likely to put further rate cut hopes to bed for now." Geopolitical risks typically boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, though a higher interest rate environment weighs on the non-yielding metal. In early European trading, New York gold futures are down 0.8% to $4,748.70 a troy ounce. Silver falls 2.5% to $74.57 an ounce, while platinum is down 0.7% to $2,051.60 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0149 ET - The rise in prices for liquefied natural gas in the last month will lift Australian exports and budget revenues, says Sophia Angala, economist at ANZ. Since late February's escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, North Asian LNG spot prices have risen by around 80%, she notes. In the 2026‑27 (July-June) Australian financial year, higher LNG prices should add around 50 billion Australian dollars to export values, she says. Higher LNG prices will also support the federal budget position in 2026-27, potentially adding 10 to 12 billion dollars in revenues, or around 0.4% of nominal GDP, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0142 ET - Markets are trading in rather textbook risk-off fashion, says Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone. Crude benchmarks have advanced, with front-month Brent and WTI both back above $100 a barrel, while the U.S. dollar is again acting like its the only haven in town, he adds. Losses are seen elsewhere, with equity futures in the red. All these moves, though, it must be said, are relatively contained in the grand scheme of things, he says. The market is viewing President Trump's latest move as largely being a negotiating gambit, as opposed to representing the new normal from here on in, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0113 ET - The U.S. Treasury market will be left assessing the extent of the damage to U.S. inflation in the wake of the cease-fire in the Middle East conflict, TD Securities' strategists say in a note. If the cease-fire persists, the inflation spike will increasingly be viewed as temporary, and TD strategists would look for the Federal Reserve to be able to resume rate cuts starting in September, the strategists say. "In addition, it will be worth watching the possible impact of the war on Treasury issuance, with Congress potentially allocating additional funds to the military," they say. TD strategists expect any increase in issuance to remain modest and be funded largely in the front-end, helping to prevent pressure on long-dated yields. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0054 ET - Failed U.S.-Iran talks leave a more fragile middle ground, Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana says in a note. The U.S.'s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz isn't a complete closure but an attempt to challenge Iran's use of the chokepoint as a source of economic and strategic leverage, she notes. A prolonged blockade raises the economic and diplomatic cost for Beijing, as China remains a key buyer of Iranian oil and has every interest in keeping energy flows stable, the strategist says. Even without a full resumption of war, crude oil is likely to stay supported as long as the strait remains a point of confrontation, she says. "If oil remains elevated, markets may have to scale back some of the more optimistic expectations around rate cuts," she adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 13, 2026 04:29 ET (08:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments