$4 Gas Is Draining American Wallets: Here's Why Pizza Stocks Could Actually Gain

Benzinga_recent_news04-14 00:37

When gasoline prices surge, Americans don’t stop eating out. They stop eating out expensively. That is the central finding of a Bank of America research note published Monday by analyst Sara Senatore,...

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They stop eating out expensively.\nThat is the central finding of a Bank of America research note published Monday by analyst Sara Senatore,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/04/51785806/4-dollar-gas-consumer-spending-qsr-pizza-stocks-to-watch-bank-of-america-2026\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2506952170.USD","symbol_name":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/04/51785806/4-dollar-gas-consumer-spending-qsr-pizza-stocks-to-watch-bank-of-america-2026","article_id":"2627452207","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/04/13/A-Papa-Johns-Logo-Sign-Outside-A-Restaur.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/04/51785806/4-dollar-gas-consumer-spending-qsr-pizza-stocks-to-watch-bank-of-america-2026","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627452207","pubTimestamp":1776098220,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"20 years of Bank of America card data show QSR chains accelerate when gas prices spike. Domino's, McDonald's, Papa John's are the trade.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","YUM":"Yum Brands","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","LU0823417653.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU2279689827.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income Sustainable A (mth) SGD-H","PZZA":"棒约翰","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. 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Bear 2X Shares","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"translate_title":"4美元的汽油正在耗尽美国人的钱包：这就是披萨股票实际上可能上涨的原因","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IXC":0.9,"DRIP":0.9,"PZZA":1,"GUSH":0.9,"ERX":0.9,"YUM":1,"DBE":0.9,"DBC":0.9,"AFG":1.5,"USE":0.9,"DRLL":0.9,"IEO":0.9,"PXJ":0.9,"DPZ":1,"MCD":1,"VDE":0.9,"DIG":0.9},"content_text":"When gasoline prices surge, Americans don’t stop eating out. They stop eating out expensively.\nThat is the central finding of a Bank of America research note published Monday by analyst Sara Senatore, who tracked BAC aggregated credit and debit card data across every major fuel price cycle since 2005.\nHer conclusion: spending on gasoline increases almost as fast as the gas price itself, meaning consumers keep driving and absorb the cost, then quietly reallocate what’s left.\nDiscretionary categories take the hit. Casual dining contracts. Airlines slow. Auto spending falls to less than half its long-run rate. \nBut one category breaks the pattern every single time: quick-service restaurants, with pizza chains leading the acceleration.\nThe first and most important finding is structural. When gas prices rise, consumers do not meaningfully cut back on how much they drive. \nBank of America card data shows that gasoline spending grows almost as fast as the gas price itself — meaning that quantity adjustments are small even during periods when prices surge sharply. \nThe pump gets paid. Everything else gets squeezed.\nThat squeeze is not evenly distributed. According to Senatore’s analysis, discretionary spending growth slows to an annualized rate of 2.9% during high-gas-price periods, against a long-term compound annual growth rate of 3.6%. \nNon-gas necessities such as groceries and utilities slow more modestly, to 2.7% against a 3.1% CAGR. The largest single-category slowdown is auto-related spending, which decelerates to 0.9% against a 2.4% baseline.\nRestaurants as a broad category slow too — from 5.3% to 4.5%. But within restaurants, the numbers diverge sharply.\nCasual dining contracts to an annualized −1.1% during gas spikes. Fast casual slows to 4.0% from a 5.6% baseline. \nMeanwhile, QSR — quickservice restaurants, or fast food — accelerates to 7.3% from a long-term rate of 5.1%. Pizza chains lead the move at 7.8%.\n“QSR spend growth also accelerates when gas spend rises (7.28% vs 5.12% CAGR), signaling efforts to economize by trading down to QSRs (pizza and non-pizza),” Senatore said.\nThe mechanism, according to Senatore, is a share-of-stomach shift. The rate of grocery spending growth appears to be modestly higher during periods of rising gas prices, suggesting that consumers substitute food at home for food away from home. \nBut the larger move is a rotation within dining itself — and growth in spending on chains slows less than on independents, meaning the consumer trading down gravitates toward recognizable brands.\nIncome amplifies the effect. Households earning under $20,000 per year slow discretionary spending to just 0.71% — well below their 4.49% long-term trend. \nThose are the core demographic for QSR chains. When lower-income consumers feel the gas pinch hardest, they lean hardest on value menus.\nThe BofA report did not name specific companies, but the category breakdown maps directly onto the major pizza and QSR names in the U.S. equity market. Pizza QSR is the single strongest-performing segment in the data — 2.7 percentage points above its long-term trend — which positions pure-play delivery chains as the most direct beneficiary.\nDomino’s Pizza Inc. (NASDAQ:DPZ) is the clearest expression of the trade. \nThe company operates almost entirely within the pizza delivery and carry-out format that the BofA data identifies as the outperforming segment, and its first-quarter 2026 earnings due April 27 will be the first report to capture the March gas price spike. \nMcDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) offers the broadest QSR exposure, with value menu positioning that historically drives traffic gains when household budgets compress. \nYum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) captures the trade through Pizza Hut’s delivery network alongside Taco Bell, whose low average check makes it a natural destination for consumers trimming dining spend. \nPapa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA) is the most leveraged pure-play pizza name, though its smaller scale and recent franchise challenges add execution risk alongside the category tailwind.\nTo date, high-frequency card data show no signs of restaurant spending slowing. Year-over-year restaurant growth decelerated from 3.6% in February to 1.3% in March, but the two-year stacked rate improved to 1.4%.\n“The recency of the gas spike suggests that consumers may be waiting to determine whether the increase in gas prices is transitory. The ~6-month average duration of prior trough to peak cycles suggests that consumers adapt only when price increases persist,” Senatore said.\nThe QSR trade is not priced for a cycle that hasn’t yet arrived at the consumer’s decision point. \nWith gas above $4 and the Hormuz disruption showing no signs of resolution, history says the rotation is coming. It just hasn’t shown up in the data yet.\nImage via PPandV/Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2627452207","isCrawlerRequest":true}