China Youran Dairy Group’s Valuation After Renewed Long Term Yili Agreements Through 2029

Simply Wall St.04-14

AdvertisementRenewed agreements with Yili Group set the context China Youran Dairy Group (SEHK:9858) has renewed long term supply and financial agreements with controlling shareholder Yili Group. ...

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These agreements lock in their commercial relationship from 2027 to 2029 and formalize ongoing raw milk and dairy product transactions.\nSee our latest analysis for China Youran Dairy Group.\nThe renewed Yili contracts arrive after a weaker patch for the shares, with a 30 day share price return of 5.58% and a 90...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业","BK1212":"农产品","BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","BK1587":"次新股","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"中国优然乳业集团续签伊利长期协议至2029年后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09858":0.9,"DCF":1},"content_text":"AdvertisementRenewed agreements with Yili Group set the context China Youran Dairy Group (SEHK:9858) has renewed long term supply and financial agreements with controlling shareholder Yili Group. These agreements lock in their commercial relationship from 2027 to 2029 and formalize ongoing raw milk and dairy product transactions. See our latest analysis for China Youran Dairy Group. The renewed Yili contracts arrive after a weaker patch for the shares, with a 30 day share price return of 5.58% and a 90 day share price return of 14.89%. However, longer term total shareholder returns of 61.45% over one year and 93.97% over three years still point to strong compounding for investors who have stayed the course. If this kind of long term relationship gives you confidence in upstream agriculture, it might be a good time to widen your search and check out 97 top founder-led companies With the share price weaker over 30 and 90 days, yet still showing strong multi year total returns and trading at what models suggest is around a 30% intrinsic discount, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Preferred Price-to-Sales of 0.7x: Is it justified? On a P/S basis, China Youran Dairy Group trades on 0.7x revenue, which screens as slightly expensive versus both peers and the broader Hong Kong food sector. The P/S multiple compares the company’s market value to its revenue. At 0.7x, the market is valuing each HK$1 of sales at HK$0.70. For an upstream dairy and farming solutions group that is still loss making, this puts the focus squarely on how reliably those sales can translate into future profits. There is a split signal here. On one side, the SWS fair P/S ratio is estimated at 0.9x, so the current 0.7x level sits below where that model suggests the market could shift over time. On the other side, 0.7x is above a peer average of 0.6x and in line with the Hong Kong food industry average of 0.7x, so investors are already paying at least a sector-level multiple for a business with high debt and negative earnings. Explore the SWS fair ratio for China Youran Dairy Group Result: Price-to-sales of 0.7x (ABOUT RIGHT) However, you still need to weigh risks such as ongoing net losses of CN¥432.386m and high debt levels that could limit flexibility if conditions tighten. Find out about the key risks to this China Youran Dairy Group narrative. Another view: DCF points to deeper upside While the 0.7x P/S ratio feels roughly in line with the sector, the SWS DCF model paints a different picture. With the shares at HK$4.23 versus an estimated future cash flow value of HK$6.01, the model suggests the stock is trading at a sizeable discount. That gap could be a cushion or a signal that expectations still need to catch up. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 9858 Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out China Youran Dairy Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 225 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If the mix of potential upside and clear risks feels finely balanced, now is the time to review the details yourself and decide where you stand with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign Looking for more investment ideas? If this stock already has a place on your radar, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused idea lists built from clear fundamentals.  Target potential mispricings early by scanning for companies that look beaten down but financially resilient through the 228 elite penny stocks with strong financials. Zero in on quality at a sensible price by checking companies that combine strong financials with appealing valuations using the 225 high quality undervalued stocks. Prioritise staying power by reviewing companies that pair balance sheet strength with consistent fundamentals via the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (388 results).   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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