US inflation spikes in March as economists warn of spillover effects in the months ahead

Morning Star AU04-13 00:00

Key takeaways The latest CPI inflation data showed prices surged in March, largely powered by a double-digit rise in energy costs. While price growth outside energy was subdued, economists expect ...

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While price growth outside energy was subdued, economists expect ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/markets/us-inflation-spikes-march-economists-warn-spillover-effects-months-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"morningstar_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US inflation spikes in March as economists warn of spillover effects in the months ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS inflation spikes in March as economists warn of spillover effects in the months ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-13 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com.au/markets/us-inflation-spikes-march-economists-warn-spillover-effects-months-ahead><strong>Morning Star AU</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key takeaways The latest CPI inflation data showed prices surged in March, largely powered by a double-digit rise in energy costs. While price growth outside energy was subdued, economists expect ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/markets/us-inflation-spikes-march-economists-warn-spillover-effects-months-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"OILT","symbol_name":"Texas Oil Index ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/markets/us-inflation-spikes-march-economists-warn-spillover-effects-months-ahead","article_id":"2627743467","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/markets/us-inflation-spikes-march-economists-warn-spillover-effects-months-ahead","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627743467","pubTimestamp":1776009600,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Key takeaways The latest CPI inflation data showed prices surged in March, largely powered by a double-digit rise in energy costs. 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While price growth outside energy was subdued, economists expect rising fuel costs to increase inflation in other categories in next month’s CPI report. Despite the jump, economists are near-unanimous that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. The March Consumer Price Index report confirmed economists’ fears that the Iran war and the monthlong oil price surge accelerated inflation. While prices beyond the energy sector remained stable, economists warn that the effects of the rising cost of fuel are likely to reverberate across the economy in the near term. In March, headline inflation jumped 0.9% month over month and 3.3% on an annual basis. Both were well above February’s readings of 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year, which had suggested inflation was on track to moderate in 2026. March’s jump in prices is largely due to a 10.9% leap in energy prices. The 21.1% rise in the gasoline index is “the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967,” said the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Friday’s report. While Brent crude oil prices fell after the temporary ceasefire announcement, economists say the fallout is likely to extend beyond higher gas prices. “When energy or food prices go up, households really notice that,” says Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling. “As a result, their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months, maybe even 24 months, tend to move higher. That’s where you start to see more of that precautionary savings behavior.” Friday’s report already shows evidence of higher fuel costs passing through to other price indexes, including airline fares, according to Schickling. Economists warn that other goods categories, including food, are likely to see a price hike in April due to rising transportation costs. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation rose 0.2% monthly and 2.6% year over year, falling in line with February’s figures and providing a note of positivity in the report. “[March’s core inflation numbers] won’t make consumers happy (as obviously they are buying groceries and filling up the tanks of their cars) but should give the economy some room to absorb the higher energy price shock,” says Northlight Asset Management chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli. While the energy index and headline numbers in Friday’s report are dismal at face value, Schickling says long-term inflation expectations over the next decade remain low. That suggests inflation remains a short-term problem rather than a lasting one. “While consumers and households are thinking about inflation being higher over the next year, in the longer term, the expectations remain for low, stable inflation,” he says. “That’s important to keep in perspective.” Fuel price surge trickles into other categories The gas index price increase accounted for almost three-quarters of the monthly items increase, according to the BLS. However, March’s CPI report shows skyrocketing oil prices affected other categories, Vanguard’s Schickling says. These include airline fares, which increased 2.7% in March, up from 1.4% in February. Outside the energy sector, Schickling says prices for shelter and apparel accelerated, showing evidence of the costs of tariffs being passed through to consumers. Shelter inflation also rose last month. The broader effects of rising oil prices are likely to put upward pressure on goods inflation in April’s CPI report, economists say. This includes food prices, which remained flat in March but will likely tick up in April, according to Morningstar senior economist Preston Caldwell. “Food at home was one bright spot in March, falling 0.2% month-over-month,” he says. “But that’s unlikely to persist in the coming months, given the rise in diesel prices. Thus, as usual, there’s likely to be further pass-through of higher oil prices into consumer prices even after the direct impact from gasoline has fully flowed through.” These indirect oil price effects may be relatively small, but Schickling explains that firms could face greater disruption to transportation routes and supply chains, creating an inflation dynamic similar to the covid-19 pandemic. He says elevated energy prices also induce “stagflationary” conditions by raising the sticker cost of fuel and diminishing consumer spending as households start saving more to account for higher gas prices. “You have demand for other parts of the economy weakening because consumers are not only spending more on energy, but they’re also becoming a bit more cautious with their spending, potentially hedging for higher energy costs rising sustainably into the future.” Fed will look past energy inflation, for nowWith volatile energy prices largely to blame for the rise in inflation, economists say the Fed is likely to see through the shock and keep interest rates unchanged at its April 29 meeting. More than 98% of bond traders predict the federal-funds rate will remain in its current range of 3.50%-3.75%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. This would leave policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The remainder anticipate a quarter-point rate hike. “For now, the Fed is comfortable enough with the view that the oil price shock will eventually reverse to refrain from hiking interest rates,” says Morningstar’s Caldwell. “But the Fed is certainly going to wait to ensure that inflationary pressures don’t grow in the broader economy before returning to rate cuts. Given the muddied inflation picture, Vanguard’s Schickling thinks the Fed is going to give more credence to the labor market, which he expects to soften during 2026 despite a strong showing in March. He and Northlight Asset Management’s Zaccarelli both believe there’s room for one rate cut by the end of 2026, should oil prices and inflation start to normalize. “But if the inflation shock is more long-lasting, they will have no choice but to sit on their hands for the entire year,” says Zaccarelli. Schickling says long-term expectations for inflation over the next five and 10 years have remained low and stable through the Iran war, indicating the Fed is likely to refrain from a rate hike in the near term. If those expectations begin to rise, however, the central bank could grow concerned, he says. “That’s when you could expect to see a more hawkish tone from the Fed, seeing the longer-term inflation expectations move higher,” he says.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2627743467","isCrawlerRequest":true}