By Connor Smith
It's hard to get stock market bears and bulls to agree on anything, but two prominent, eponymous economists finally found common ground this week.
Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, a prominent bearish commentator, and Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni, a so-called perma-bull, both made the case in recent notes that the stock market believes the war in Iran is coming to an end.
Rosenberg titled his Wednesday morning note, "Risk-on Markets Have Priced in the War's End -- What Next?" while Yardeni published "Mr. Market Says The War Is Over" late Tuesday evening.
Both arguments are based on the fact that the S&P 500 is now up 1.3% from its close the Friday before Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes.
"It has also been another momentum-led rebound, similar to last year's explosive rally that started on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs," Yardeni writes, referring to last year's spring relief rally.
Rosenberg also cites the rally in riskier assets as a sign the market thinks the war is pretty much over. He points out that energy stocks have "virtually retraced their wartime gains," and adds that "even the bond market is back on an even keel after yesterday's rally."
This week's market gains have come even though this past weekend's talks between the U.S. and Iran didn't yield a peace deal. Instead, the U.S. began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could further disrupt global oil supplies. But hopes that both sides will return to the table and reach a deal have the S&P 500 back near its highest levels on record.
"Investors clearly are looking through the proverbial valley, and why not, since the president stated that he thinks we could have a deal by the end of the week," Rosenberg writes. "Though we have heard that before."
He notes that Israel and Lebanon are also holding diplomatic talks, though the odds of a breakthrough are low.
"In any event, things are far less bleak than they appeared to be last weekend," Rosenberg adds.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 200 points, or 0.4%, Wednesday morning. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% and on track for a fresh record close. The Nasdaq Composite was up another 1% after closing higher 10 days in a row.
While the market might be turning from the war, there are other risks for Wall Street to consider.
"While the war may be cooling down, inflation is heating up, led by rising energy costs," Yardeni writes. "The question is, will these costs put upward pressure on core inflation?"
And he's supposed to be the bull! Of course, Yardeni does cite the March core producer price index, which came in cooler than feared this week.
"In our Roaring 2020s base case scenario, strong productivity gains will keep unit labor costs subdued in 2026," Yardeni writes. "Also helping to offset the energy shock in the coming months should be the fading of last year's tariff shock and the ongoing moderating of rent inflation."
That's more like it.
Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2026 11:32 ET (15:32 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments