Aussie extends gains to hit multi-year highs versus dollar, yen

John Cheng & Matthew Burgess / Bloomberg04-16

The Australian dollar increased to its strongest level in years against the greenback and yen, underscoring a rebound in risk sentiment amid optimism around a longer-term US-Iran ceasefire. (April 16)...

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It also gained to ¥114.15, its strongest against the Japanese currency since September 1990. The move comes alongside a broader rally in global equities, with the S&P 500 at record highs, as investors bet tensions in the Middle East may ease on signs the US and Iran are close to extending a ceasefire and restarting talks.                             \nThe Aussie’s strength across the board “suggests an improvement in risk sentiment,” said Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The moves may extend a bit further while this optimism lasts, but we doubt they can sustain for long given the high risk of a breakdown in negotiations. The Strait is still largely closed which will put a floor under oil prices.”\nThe Australian dollar has gained more than 4% against the greenback this month, making it the best-performing Group-of-10 currency, supported by a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook and its positive correlation with equities. Meanwhile, the yen has lagged its peers as expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike have eased following Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious remarks.\nWhat Bloomberg strategists say:\nA more hawkish RBA outlook is feeding directly through the rates channel, supporting front-end differentials and improving the appeal of the Aussie. At the same time, the currency’s positive correlation with the S&P 500 has pushed back towards its highest levels since the turn of the year, reinforcing its role as a high-beta expression of global risk. With US equities grinding higher alongside a softer dollar, that linkage is helping to support the bid.\nJapanese authorities have ramped up their verbal warnings on currency moves. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she had close discussions on foreign exchange issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday and reiterated that authorities are prepared for “bold” action if needed.\nThe rally in Aussie-yen has also reinforced the appeal of the yen-funded carry trade, as investors borrow in the low-yielding currency to invest in higher-yielding assets. A strategy of shorting the yen and going long the Aussie would have delivered returns of more than 10% year to date.\nStill, the trade carries risks. “It’s still a fantastic trade, but you have to be very careful with this volatility,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. Any spike in volatility could make the trade “painful” to hold, he said.\nUploaded by Evelyn Chan","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.1","shortVersion":"4.42.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2628248398","isCrawlerRequest":true}