The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0747 GMT - Sterling could weaken on U.K. political concerns as Prime Minister Keir Starmer will address parliament later over the appointment of former U.K. ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Starmer is facing calls to resign after he was accused of misleading parliament over the appointment of Mandelson, a longtime friend of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson failed the vetting process but was still approved for the job. Starmer is expected to speak in the House of Commons after 1440 GMT. "Sterling could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the $1.3380-$1.3400 area," Turner says. Sterling trades flat at $1.3515. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 GMT - Malaysia's 2026 inflation trajectory is likely to face pressure from rising global geopolitical tensions, TA Securities analyst Farid Burhanuddin says, noting Brent crude oil prices is a key factor to monitor. Headline CPI could rise by around 0.03 percentage points for every $10 increment in Brent crude oil prices, he notes. However, the actual pass-through from higher oil prices will depend on Malaysia's subsidy mechanisms, pricing policies and demand conditions. Malaysia's 2026 headline inflation is projected at 2.1%-2.6%, under TA Securities' base case, which assumes Brent crude oil prices would average $80-$100 a barrel.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0740 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise, in tandem with U.S. Treasurys, amid renewed uncertainties about the Strait of Hormuz. "European markets head into the new week on a fragile footing as tensions have escalated again between the U.S. and Iran, with vessels unable to transit the strait over the weekend," says The Investment Institute by UniCredit's Francesco Maria Di Bella in a note. Fresh uncertainty regarding when vessels can safely transit the strait again has lifted oil prices, in turn raising inflation fears and pushing bond yields higher. The 10-year German Bund yield rises 3.5 basis points to 2.994%. Yields on other 10-year eurozone bond yields rise more, with Italian and French yields up nearly 5 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0724 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb as rising oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend revive fears about inflation. The oil supply disruption raises the prospects of energy-driven inflation and interest-rate rises by major central banks in the coming months. Ten-year gilt yields rise 6.2 basis points to 4.813%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0722 GMT - Gold prices fall after news that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again sent oil and gas prices higher, reviving concerns over inflation. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 1.3% to $4,815.30 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rises 0.1% to 98.24. "The latest weakness has been driven by renewed dollar strength and fresh concerns about energy-led inflation," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "Gold and silver remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East given the knock-on impact on the dollar, bond yields, and U.S. rate expectations." Silver futures fall 2.4% to 79.90 an ounce, while platinum is down 2.3% to $2,092 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0712 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally after earlier falls, even as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated following weekend developments. Iran said Saturday it had reversed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the waterway would stay closed as long as a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains in force. President Trump said Sunday that U.S. delegation would return to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Monday for talks to extend the two-week-long cease-fire, which is set to expire this week. However, Tehran has not publicly confirmed it will attend. "The mood music of markets is one of concern, but one that sees progress towards a resolution," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Bitcoin rises 0.1% to $74,759, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0634 GMT - The dollar rises to a near one-week high as oil prices gain on renewed concerns about supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war. Last week, hopes were raised that a peace deal could be reached soon while Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened following a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. However, at the weekend Iran said the strait will be closed again, citing the continued U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Trump said Sunday that a U.S. delegation will return to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Monday for talks but also renewed threats to bomb Iran's civilian infrastructure if a deal isn't reached. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to a high of 98.395. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0626 GMT - NAB continues to tinker with its Australian inflation forecasts amid the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. NAB expects both headline and core inflation to peak in 2Q 2026, with trimmed mean at 3.9% on year and headline at 4.9% on year. The magnitude of this energy shock is "outside historical experience," says Taylor Nugent, economist at NAB. Even though fuel prices are likely to decline month on month in April, they are still expected to add to 2Q inflation, he adds. NAB expects a final 25 basis point rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 4.35% in May. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X@JamesGlynnWSJ)
0613 GMT - High inflation has weighed on both Japanese households and food companies, a Tokyo Shoko Research survey suggests. The pace of year-over-year revenue increases among Japanese food makers slowed to 3.4% in 2025, compared with 7.6% in 2023, the survey shows. "As the cycle of cost-push price increases reaches its peak, consumers may increasingly be shunning higher-priced goods," the research firm says in a report. Meanwhile, nearly half of the food companies surveyed reported weaker profit, suggesting that price hikes have failed to keep pace with rising costs, Tokyo Shoko Research says.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com )
0601 GMT - Renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a setback after Friday's huge relief rally and leaves the markets in a limbo for now, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. A likely reversal of the rally could mean that yield curves are set to bear-flatten--short-term yields rising faster than long-term yields, the rates strategist says. Intra-eurozone government bond as well as credit spreads could widen again, and the asset swap spread curve could steepen from both ends towards the ceasefire deadline on Tuesday night, before more tangible signs of a likely deal emerge in the coming days, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0601 GMT - As global central banks face geopolitical uncertainties, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities has pushed back its forecast for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike to June from its previous projection of April. "The BOJ is likely to proceed with caution given the limited amount of hard economic data available since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East," the brokerage's analysts say. Still, inflation-adjusted interest rates remain "extremely low" in Japan, which should prompt BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda to signal readiness for monetary tightening during his news conference next week in case inflationary pressures heighten, the analysts say. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com )
0557 GMT - Markets are likely to stay volatile this week as the U.S. and Iran try and negotiate a deal, Danske Bank's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. If oil doesn't start flowing through the strait soon, oil prices are likely to rise further and top $100 a barrel again, putting upward pressure on yields, the senior analyst says. Friday ended with government bond yields falling across regions and maturities after Iran's announcement of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, however, as Iran reversed course, re-closing the strait after the U.S. confirmed its shipping blockade would continue. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 20, 2026 03:47 ET (07:47 GMT)
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