HEADLINES
Bank of Canada to Track Longer-Term CPI Expectations For Guidance on Rates, Macklem Says
Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said Friday he expects inflation accelerated in March, although likely below 3%, and that officials will pay close attention to medium- and longer-term inflation expectations when deciding whether rate hikes are necessary.
The central bank does not "want to jump too early and raise interest rates and lower growth, particularly when growth is already weak. On the other hand, you don't want to be late and let inflation get a hold and become entrenched," Macklem told reporters from Washington, where he attended the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release inflation data for March on Monday. Hours later, the Bank of Canada will issue its quarterly survey gauging sentiment among businesses and households, which will provide the first clue about inflation expectations.
Housing Starts Continue to Lose Momentum, Dropping 6% in March
Canadian housing starts slumped in March, adding to signs that renewed weakness in the property market remains.
Housing starts across Canada came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 235,852 units, a 6% drop from the month before, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Friday. The market had expected a modest rise, with 255,000 residential housing projects to have started in March, according to economists at TD Securities.
The trend measure--a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts--declined 2.9% to 248,378 units last month, the country's national housing agency said.
Housing Slump Should Dampen Rate Hike Talk House Prices to Remain Weak Unless Positive Breakthrough on USMCA Outlook
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick Says Trade Deal With Canada and Mexico Needs to Be 'Reconsidered'
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that President Trump considers the present U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade treaty to be a poor deal that needs to be "reconsidered and reimagined."
Speaking at a conference organized by the media outlet Semafor, Lutnick also harshly criticized Canada's approach to the trade talks with Washington.
"They suck," Lutnick said of Canada, adding that Prime Minister Mark Carney's China strategy is also misguided.
The trade treaty, known as USMCA, is up for a formal review in the coming months, and Trump administration officials are expected to seek changes. Uncertainty about the trade pact--which has allowed the bulk of Canada's exports to the U.S. to enter duty free--has cast a pall over investment and hiring plans among businesses.
Energy Stocks Slide as Iran Assures Hormuz Commercial Passage
Canadian energy stocks fell sharply with tumbling oil prices Friday after Iran signaled it would keep the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the strait would remain open following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, triggering a 10% drop in crude and erasing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up in recent weeks.
The price of oil settled under $90 a barrel on Friday, pulling Canadian energy stocks down in tandem.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world's oil flows, became a flashpoint after the conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran erupted on Feb. 28, raising fears that commercial traffic could be blocked in the key passage.
Aris Mining Shares Rally As Key Colombia Mine Work Remains On Track
Aris Mining's shares jumped after the Canadian gold producer said one of its key growth projects was on track for first gold before the end of the year.
The shares climbed 3.4% to C$28.75 in Toronto. On the New York Stock Exchange, the shares were 3.1% higher at $20.96.
Aris said it hit a construction milestone at its Marmato gold mine in Colombia now that the underground development cross-cut connects with the new surface decline to the existing underground development.
Gold Miners Lead TSX Gains as Safe-Haven Demand Persists
Scotiabank Expects C$77 Million Contribution to Net Income From KeyCorp Stake in Second Quarter
Bank of Nova Scotia expects its investment in KeyCorp will contribute about C$77 million to its net income in the fiscal second quarter.
The contribution doesn't include Scotiabank's associated funding costs and is reported on a one-month lag, the bank said Friday.
Adjusting for the amortization of acquired intangible assets of roughly C$8 million, the Canadian bank's adjusted net-income contribution from KeyCorp is forecast to be about C$85 million for the quarter.
TALKING POINT
Canadian Companies Now Lining Up New Markets After Bruising Year of U.S. Tariffs
By Robb M. Stewart
OTTAWA--Canadian businesses, after initial confusion and hesitancy, are actively pursuing new markets beyond the U.S. to lessen a historic dependence on their closest neighbor, says the head of Canada's export credit agency.
Roughly a year after the Trump administration's initial tariffs, companies in Canada have largely come to accept that global trade is no longer the same. Uncertainty remains and is now a part of the backdrop for importers and exporters.
"I think we all understand that because of the geopolitics and the reality of the world we're in, we can expect there to be future trade shocks that are coming for all kinds of reasons, including whatever U.S. policy might be," Alison Nankivell, chief executive of Export Development Canada, said in an interview.
Nankivell took the helm of EDC in February 2025, when business leaders and politicians were scrambling to meet President Trump's abrupt shift toward protectionist policies.
The agency at that time was fielding a surge in calls from companies in Canada seeking help in identifying new markets. It prepared seminars and papers to help companies understand the environment. The federal government, through EDC, in March that year lined up an additional C$5 billion in financial support for exporters and others affected by tariffs.
Through the early part of 2025, everything stalled, Nankivell said. U.S. tariffs changed and broadened, and sector-specific levies came into force that greatly burdened the auto, steel, timber and other industries. Everyone had to figure out how tariffs would cascade through Canada's economy and the costs.
"Once people got a handle on it, they started to pull in and use our program," she said. "Even more interestingly, we really saw that in the last half of 2025 and then into 2026 it was more, 'OK, this is our new reality' and we now are spending much more time thoughtfully thinking about trade diversification."
Nankivell said EDC has helped with some initial forays into new markets, including advising companies about possibly tailoring products for new markets and how logistics will work for new trade routes.
Businesses are also taking advantage of EDC's financial support, which is freeing up working capital that otherwise would be expended on credit insurance, tariff-related bonds and other new costs.
To date, the program has deployed C$2.1 billion to support about 800 companies, including C$337 million so far this year. One of the biggest users of the export support program has been the lumber industry, as some companies seek out markets in Europe and Asia after softwood producers were hit with significant duties on shipments to the U.S.
EDC's most recent trade-confidence index showed that two-thirds of Canadian exporters intend to enter new markets over the next two years.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and his lawmakers have spent months hosting officials from around the world and jetting off to meet with counterparts in an effort to build ties and trade corridors, all part of a pledge to double the level of non-U.S. exports over the next decade. At the same time, the federal and provincial governments have moved to drop internal trade barriers in the country, cut red tape and offer financing for big developments and infrastructure projects that hope to lure international funding.
"Each sector is finding a different way to handle it, and it isn't a one-year transition," Nankivell said. "There is strain and real financial hardship that's involved in a pivot that companies are trying to do."
Nankivell said the government and private sector now demonstrate a collective mission to re-engineer the industrial fabric of Canada for greater diversity in trade and partnerships.
"I think we're all quite comfortable living with the level of uncertainty, because I think we feel much more ability to pivot and move as things emerge," she said.
Write to Robb M. Stewart at [robb.stewart@wsj.com]
Expected Major Events for Monday
04:30/JPN: Feb Tertiary Industry Index
05:00/JPN: Mar Convenience Store Sales
06:00/GER: Mar PPI
08:30/UK: Jan Card Spending statistics
08:30/UK: S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index
10:00/UK: Mar Aluminium Production report
12:30/CAN: Mar CPI
15:30/CAN: Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Monday
ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd $(ASA)$ is expected to report for 1Q.
Alaska Air Group Inc $(ALK)$ is expected to report $-1.78 for 1Q.
BOK Financial Corp $(BOKF)$ is expected to report $2.32 for 1Q.
Bank of Hawaii Corp $(BOH)$ is expected to report $1.34 for 1Q.
CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc (CASIF) is expected to report for 4Q.
Capital City Bank Group Inc (CCBG) is expected to report $0.83 for 1Q.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $(CLF)$ is expected to report $-0.41 for 1Q.
Dynex Capital Inc $(DX)$ is expected to report $0.09 for 1Q.
Ennis Inc $(EBF)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
FS Bancorp Inc (FSBW) is expected to report $1.00 for 1Q.
FVCBankcorp Inc $(FVCB)$ is expected to report $0.33 for 1Q.
First Community Bankshares Inc $(FCBC)$ is expected to report $0.52 for 1Q.
First United Corp $(FUNC)$ is expected to report $0.92 for 1Q.
Flexsteel Industries Inc $(FLXS)$ is expected to report $0.86 for 3Q.
Greenwich LifeSciences Inc $(GLSI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Home Bancorp Inc (HBCP) is expected to report $1.39 for 1Q.
Investar Holding Corp $(ISTR)$ is expected to report $0.57 for 1Q.
LCNB Corp $(LCNB)$ is expected to report $0.35 for 1Q.
MainStreet Bancshares Inc $(MNSB)$ is expected to report $0.45 for 1Q.
NB Bancorp Inc $(NBBK)$ is expected to report $0.54 for 1Q.
NetSTREIT Corp $(NTST)$ is expected to report $0.07 for 1Q.
Nicolet Bankshares Inc $(NIC)$ is expected to report $2.62 for 1Q.
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK,NDM.T) is expected to report for 4Q.
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina Inc $(PEBK)$ is expected to report for 1Q.
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd (PSK.T) is expected to report for 1Q.
RBB Bancorp (RBB) is expected to report $0.45 for 1Q.
Royale Energy Inc (ROYL) is expected to report for 4Q.
ServisFirst Bancshares Inc (SFBS) is expected to report $1.51 for 1Q.
SmartFinancial Inc $(SMBK)$ is expected to report $0.78 for 1Q.
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) is expected to report $2.79 for 1Q.
Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) is expected to report for 2Q.
Washington Trust Bancorp Inc $(WASH)$ is expected to report $0.76 for 1Q.
Waterstone Financial Inc $(WSBF)$ is expected to report $0.32 for 1Q.
Western Energy Services Corp (WRG.T) is expected to report for 1Q.
Wintrust Financial Corp $(WTFC)$ is expected to report $2.96 for 1Q.
Zions Bancorp NA $(ZION)$ is expected to report $1.42 for 1Q.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 17, 2026 16:32 ET (20:32 GMT)
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