Is It Too Late To Consider Amgen (AMGN) After A 32% One-Year Share Price Rally?

Simply Wall St.04-19

If you are wondering whether Amgen’s share price still offers value after a strong run, this breakdown will help you weigh what you are really paying for. At a last close of US$355.30, the stock has ...

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At a last close of US$355.30, the stock has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-amgn/amgen/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-amgen-amgn-after-a-32-one-year-sh\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider Amgen (AMGN) After A 32% One-Year Share Price Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider Amgen (AMGN) After A 32% One-Year Share Price Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-19 13:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-amgn/amgen/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-amgen-amgn-after-a-32-one-year-sh><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Amgen’s share price still offers value after a strong run, this breakdown will help you weigh what you are really paying for. At a last close of US$355.30, the stock has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-amgn/amgen/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-amgen-amgn-after-a-32-one-year-sh\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0109394709.USD","symbol_name":"富兰克林生物科技新领域基金A (acc)","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-amgn/amgen/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-amgen-amgn-after-a-32-one-year-sh","article_id":"2628676376","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/24816-main-header/1756203123218"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-amgn/amgen/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-amgen-amgn-after-a-32-one-year-sh","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628676376","pubTimestamp":1776575124,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Amgen’s share price still offers value after a strong run, this breakdown will help you weigh what you are really paying for.\nAt a last close of US$355.30, the stock has returned 1.2% over 7 days, 2.2% over 30 days, 8.4% year to date, 32.2% over 1 year, 60.1% over 3 years, and 61.7% over 5 years. 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At a last close of US$355.30, the stock has returned 1.2% over 7 days, 2.2% over 30 days, 8.4% year to date, 32.2% over 1 year, 60.1% over 3 years, and 61.7% over 5 years. These figures raise fair questions about what is already reflected in the price. Recent attention around Amgen has focused on its role as a large US biotech, with investors watching how its pipeline and portfolio position it within the broader pharmaceuticals and biotech space. This context helps explain why sentiment around the stock and its valuation has been in focus. Currently, Amgen scores a 4/6 valuation check score. The following sections will walk through different valuation methods to show what that number really means, and will finish with a way to put all these approaches into a clearer big picture.  Find out why Amgen's 32.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Amgen Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those projections back to today, to arrive at an estimate of what the entire business might be worth right now. For Amgen, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $8.4b. Analyst and extrapolated estimates suggest annual Free Cash Flow in the region of $13.6b in 2026, with projections rising to about $20.2b by 2035, with Simply Wall St extending estimates beyond the analyst window. These future cash flows are discounted back to today in $ to account for the time value of money and risk. On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $638.49 per share for Amgen, compared with the recent share price of $355.30. That implies the shares trade at roughly a 44.4% discount to this DCF estimate, which indicates that the stock screens as undervalued under this method. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amgen is undervalued by 44.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 60 more high quality undervalued stocks. AMGN Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Amgen. Approach 2: Amgen Price vs Earnings For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for what you are paying for each dollar of earnings, which makes it a common way to compare valuations across similar businesses. A higher or lower P/E often reflects what the market expects for future growth and how much risk investors are willing to accept. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher “normal” P/E, while lower growth or higher risk can justify a lower one. Amgen currently trades on a P/E of 24.9x. That sits above the Biotechs industry average P/E of 17.1x, but below the broader peer group average of 38.4x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Amgen is 26.1x, which is its proprietary estimate of what Amgen’s P/E “should” be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and specific risks. This Fair Ratio can offer a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison with peers or the industry, because it attempts to adjust for Amgen’s own growth profile and risk characteristics. With the Fair Ratio of 26.1x sitting slightly above the current 24.9x, the P/E suggests Amgen screens as undervalued on this measure. Result: UNDERVALUED NasdaqGS:AMGN P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amgen Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in as your way of attaching a clear story about Amgen to the numbers such as fair value, revenue, earnings and margin assumptions, and then seeing how that story plays out in a forecast. A Narrative on Simply Wall St is a short, plain language view of what you think is driving Amgen that then connects directly to a set of forecasts and an implied fair value. This way you are not just looking at ratios in isolation, you are seeing how your view of the business links to a price. These Narratives sit inside the Community page on Simply Wall St, are used by millions of investors, and are updated automatically when new information such as earnings, guidance or news is added. As a result, the numbers keep moving as the story changes. For Amgen, one investor might lean toward a higher fair value around US$432.0 with expectations for revenue growth, higher margins and a P/E of 22.2x by 2029. Another investor might focus on risks and prefer a lower fair value around US$218.89 with flat or lower assumed revenues and a different P/E. Comparing each Narrative fair value with today’s share price can help you decide whether the stock looks expensive, cheap or somewhere in between on your own terms. For Amgen, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Amgen Narratives: Together, they frame a clear bull and bear range around what the stock might be worth, based on different assumptions for growth, margins and the P/E investors might be willing to pay in a few years time. 🐂 Amgen Bull Case Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$432.00 per share. At a last close of US$355.30, that is about 17.7% below this Narrative fair value. Revenue growth assumption used: 6.52% a year.  Assumes volume-led growth across around 15 products, with particular emphasis on obesity, rare disease and biosimilars supporting higher revenue and operating leverage. Builds in higher profit margins over time, helped by AI-supported R&D, a broad late-stage pipeline in areas like obesity and oncology, and global expansion of biologics and biosimilars. Recognises risks from drug pricing, patent expiries, biosimilar competition, R&D uncertainty and acquisitions, but still sees room for a higher valuation if bullish earnings and P/E assumptions play out.  🐻 Amgen Bear Case Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: US$350.03 per share. At a last close of US$355.30, that is about 1.5% above this Narrative fair value. Revenue growth assumption used: 2.67% a year.  Builds on a more moderate earnings path, with lower revenue growth and more conservative margin expansion expectations relative to the bullish view. Places more weight on headwinds such as drug pricing pressure, biosimilar competition, heavy R&D and capital spending, regulatory uncertainty and demographic limits to patient growth. Arrives at a fair value close to the current share price. This means small changes in assumptions about growth, margins or the future P/E can easily swing the conclusion on whether the stock looks expensive or not.  If you want to see how your own view lines up with these ranges and the assumptions behind them, you can step through the full Community Narratives for Amgen, compare their forecasts, and decide which story comes closest to how you see the company today. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Amgen on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for Amgen? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:AMGN 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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