Trump Says He's 'Permanently Opening' Hormuz, But Do Prediction Markets Agree?

Benzinga_recent_news04-18

President Donald Trump‘s claim that he is “permanently opening” the Strait of Hormuz sent Polymarket peace deal odds surging on Friday, with traders repricing a potential US-Iran agreement by 28 to 43...

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US-Iran talks continue over $20B plan.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4231":"零售房地产信托","ADC":"艾格里房产","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托"},"translate_title":"特朗普说他将“永久开放”霍尔木兹，但预测市场同意吗？","themeId":"d80bf1f950869e72f21cabd00b98d8fb","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ADC":1.5},"content_text":"President Donald Trump‘s claim that he is “permanently opening” the Strait of Hormuz sent Polymarket peace deal odds surging on Friday, with traders repricing a potential US-Iran agreement by 28 to 43 percentage points across every major deadline.\nBut the market still isn’t buying the “permanently” framing: traders give just 41% odds of a permanent deal by April 22, the day the current ceasefire expires.\nThe repricing tracks a scoop from Axios reporting the U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, with a central element being a $20 billion release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. \nU.S. negotiators started at $6 billion for humanitarian purchases; Iran asked for $27 billion.\nTrump pushed back on Truth Social after the story published, writing that “no money will change hands,” though he stopped short of denying the broader framework.\nThe US-Iran permanent peace deal market repriced across the curve. April 22 odds jumped to 41%, up 28 points. April 30 climbed to 62%, a 43-point move. The May 31 contract sits at 74%, up 30 points, while June 30 is pricing 81%.\nOn the separate Strait of Hormuz normalization contract, traders give 84% confidence that shipping traffic returns to pre-war levels by the end of May, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the strait open for all traffic for the duration of the ceasefire. \nIf the blockade holds and talks collapse after April 22, that premium snaps right back, and energy names rip higher. If a deal materializes by early May, the Strait actually reopens and the energy complex gets repriced lower.\nTraders appear to be hedging on whose words to believe: Trump’s optimistic sound bites, or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth‘s warning that the blockade will continue “as long as it takes.” \nFor now, Polymarket has made the call: traders see a grind toward a deal, not a breakthrough.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2628783073","isCrawlerRequest":true}