By Josh Schafer
That was fast. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are back at all-time highs. A swift move lower in oil as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" helped catapult stocks higher.
Even as tensions escalated once again over the weekend, futures moves remained relatively ahead of Monday's market open.
The Nasdaq has now gained 17.7% in the past 13 trading sessions, its best gain over that time period since April 2020. It's 13-day winning streak is the longest since 1992. Meanwhile the S&P 500 just wrapped up its best three-week stretch since June 2020.
Over the course of two weeks, the market dynamics have flipped.The Vestmo Market Barometer has now clearly shifted to a more risk on stance. At 71.5% Vestmo says the move was driven by sentiment normalization and short-covering rather than "fresh strategic buying." To see the barometer push further into risk-on territory, Vestmo is eyeing a sustained peace agreement in the Middle East and a return of the prospects of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts for 2026.
Vestmo points out that its price momentum factor helped push the barometer higher. A rally in large-cap technology and semiconductors led this move. As we noted in the latest Searching for Signals with Barron's on Substack AI stocks are once again leading the market higher.
Julian Emanuel, a senior managing director leading the equity derivatives and quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI, recommends investors lean into the tech leadership.
"The last week may 'feel' like a 'just buy everything' environment, but given the elevated risks, it isn't," Emanuel wrote in a note to clients.
To Emanuel's point, from the S&P 500's bottom on March 30 to its record close on April 15, just 26% of stocks in the index outperformed the benchmark's nearly 11% rally.
This week Barron's recommended buying into strength within the AI trade as Al Root picked Intel stock. The stock has soared over 220% in the past 12 months but Al argues this turnaround could still be in its early stages. He writes in part, "it's starting from a distressed base -- even after the recent gain, it lags behind the S&P 500 by 11 percentage points annualized over the past five years -- with no support from Wall Street amid management turmoil."
From a broader market perspective, markets appear to have moved on from geopolitical worries and shifted focus back to the increasing positive fundamental bull case for stocks.
Since the start of the war, consensus projections for year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 have increased from 14.7% to 18%. As earnings season rolls on in the next few weeks, this once again creates a high bar to impress investors.
Circling Back
📈 Over the past few months we've been pointing out opportunities in legacy software names that have been flashing attractive valuations after steep selloff. This week the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF soared nearly 14% and our picks were among some of the top movers. Oracle stock skyrocketed more than 26% while Microsoft gained 14%. Read more on our Oracle pick here and our Microsoft recommendation here.
American Airlines rose almost 13% last week amid the broader market rally driven by lower oil prices and hopes the Iran war is coming to an end. Shares started the week strong after a report stated United Airlines floated the idea of a merger in a meeting with government officials. Despite a steep selloff during the war, American shares are now nearly in the green since Teresa Rivas recommended them on Feb. 25. Notably, Teresa's bull case had no mention of a potential acquisition serving as a catalyst for the stock.
Live Q&A
Todd Chanko joined the show this week to discuss his Sonoco Products stock pick and potential lingering risks from the recent oil price shock.
Click below to watch the full episode.
Look out Tuesday night for our latest exclusive stock pick, and then join us for a Q&A with the reporter on Wednesday at noon to discuss. This week we'll also be discussing the investing outlook and ideas for the rest of 2026 with Bank of America head of U.S. equity strategy Savita Subramanian. Sign up for the show and submit a question that could be answered live on air here.
Circle Voice
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Are you bullish or bearish on the market now? Will the Fed cut rates before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends?
Reader Insights
John Kaffenes commented on Todd Chanko's Sonoco Products stock pick agreeing with the bullish stance.
"SON looks like a positive turnaround with a combination of some growth potential and yield. In addition, the technical analysis looks pretty good."
On our Radar: BellRing Brands
If you haven't heard, protein is all the rage in food products these days. This has our Evie Liu watching Premier Protein maker BellRing Brands. Here's part of Evie's analysis:
The 🐂 case:
-- Growing demand. Global demand for protein products has surged in recent
years as consumption expands beyond sports nutrition into mainstream
wellness and weight-management use. Sales have more than doubled in the
past five years. The company's Premier Protein brand now makes up roughly
a quarter of the ready-to-drink protein shake market.
-- Sales initiatives. As promotions, advertising, and product innovation
kicks in later this year, BellRing expects sales growth to accelerate and
reach 4% to 6% for the full year of fiscal 2026. "We're pretty bullish on
the category," says Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner, "Even losing market
share in a category growing at solid double digits, you're still growing
better than pretty much everything else in food and beverage."
-- Valuation. Shares are trading at only 7.4 times forward earnings, a sharp
contrast to its 31 times valuation just a year ago. That's much cheaper
than most food and beverage peers.
The 🐻 case:
-- Competition. Fairlife, a major rival brand owned by Coca-Cola, has
recently expanded its production capacity, while smaller brands like
Nurri and Oikos, along with private labels from retailers, continue to
grow.
-- Soft Q4 sales. In the quarter ended in December, net sales increased just
1% from last year, while dollar consumption of Premier shakes decreased
2.2%. Increased promotions from rivaling brands and delays in Premier's
own promotional displays at a major retailer has contributed to the loss,
management said.
Read more and join the conversation here.
Thoughts on this newsletter? Ideas for more content? Email me at Josh.Schafer@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 19, 2026 18:59 ET (22:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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