Asian Morning Briefing: Peace-Deal Talks in Focus After Iran's U-Turn Over Hormuz

Dow Jones04-20

MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks surged and oil prices fell sharply on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Treasury yields fell as oil-related inflation fears eased. The U.S. dollar weakened and precious-metals futures settled higher. However, over the weekend, Iran's military said the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. President Trump said U.S. negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for peace talks as he warned Iran to take a deal or face strikes that would knock out all of its bridges and power plants.

MARKET WRAPS

EQUITIES

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite finished at fresh records on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open.

President Trump praised countries that were assisting the U.S. and Iran in working toward a cease-fire in the Persian Gulf, while adding that the U.S.'s naval blockade on Iranian ports would "remain in full force," prompting some uncertainty for shippers.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, crossing 7100 for the first time and closing at a record for a third straight day. The Nasdaq composite rose 1.5% to finish at its own record, up 6.8% on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.8% to its highest close since before the war.

Aside from optimism about a resolution to the war, the rally has been fueled by renewed appetite for tech shares.

Earlier Friday, markets in Asia ended mostly lower.

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.4%, and the ChiNext Price Index increased 1.4%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.9%.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped 1.8%.

South Korea's Kospi fell 0.5%.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.1%.

New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 Index dropped 1.2%.

COMMODITIES

Oil futures fell to their lowest level since March 10 after Iran said it's allowing all commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump said the U.S. is helping Iran to remove all mines from the waterway.

However, even if everything goes well, disruption to supply chains will be longer lasting, said Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities.

WTI settled down 11% at $83.85 a barrel and Brent fell 9.1% to $90.38.

Precious metals futures settled higher, getting a boost from Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open.

The pathway for an end to the war in Iran looks to reduce recessionary risks, which is providing support.

"This is particularly positive for silver, as its fundamentals are now in place to strengthen," said Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities.

Industrial demand and improved appetite for precious metals as a safe-haven asset look to stimulate demand. Cardillo added that gold has room to move higher, if an end of the war leads to a weaker U.S. dollar and lower yields.

Front-month gold finished up 1.5% to $4,857.60 a troy ounce, while silver rose 4% to $81.738/oz.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Investors brace for renewed volatility after this weekend's Iran developments

After a three-week-long rally that's brought the S&P 500 to new record highs, investors are again bracing for uncertainty following a whirlwind of weekend developments concerning the war with Iran.

Hopes had been raised last week that the war may soon end, and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz was reopening to shipping traffic. But Iran on Saturday said the strait remained closed, and reportedly fired on two Indian-flagged ships that were forced to turn around. In a social-media post Sunday, President Donald Trump called that "a total violation of our ceasefire agreement."

Iranian officials said Sunday that the strait will remain closed as long as the U.S. continues its blockade of Iranian ports, according to the Associated Press.

Iran's Hard-Liners Flex Their Muscle With a U-Turn Over Hormuz

Iran's quick reversal of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has laid bare a rift between the country's political leaders and the military hard-liners who have deepened their hold on the government since the war began.

A day after the country's foreign minister announced that the strait was open, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on at least two commercial ships in the Gulf for the first time during the cease-fire-and broadcast warnings to mariners that the waterway remained closed, causing ships that were attempting the transit to turn back. Ships would be targeted if they moved, it said.

The public display of division points to the difficulty ahead as President Trump tries to nail down concessions that would allow him to end the war with a clear win.

U.A.E. Asks U.S. for a Wartime Financial Lifeline

WASHINGTON-The United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a deeper crisis, U.S. officials said.

U.A.E. Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington last week, the officials said. The Emiratis emphasized that they had so far avoided the worst economic effects of the conflict but might still need a financial lifeline, the officials said.

The talks highlighted the U.A.E.'s concern that the war could inflict major damage on its economy and its position as a global financial hub, depleting its foreign reserves and scaring away investors who once saw it as a stable and secure place for their money. The conflict has damaged Emirati oil-and-gas infrastructure and shut off their ability to sell oil using tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, depriving it of a key source of dollar revenues.

Blue Owl Founders Revise Terms of Personal Loans That Raised Scrutiny

Shares in Blue Owl Capital have dropped nearly 40% so far this year amid investor jitters about private credit.

Now, the firm's co-CEOs removed one drag on its stock by revising the terms of personal loans they took out against their shares.

Doug Ostrover and Marc Lipschultz had borrowed against their stakes in Blue Owl, raising concern on Wall Street that the company's falling stock price could open them up to margin calls and add downward pressure.

Ford Recalls up to 1.39 Million F-150s

Ford is recalling up to 1.39 million F-150 pickups over the risk of unexpected downshifting that can lead to a loss of vehicle control.

The recall affects certain 2015 to 2017 F-150 vehicles and focuses on a loss of signal between the transmission range sensor and the powertrain control module that can cause the transmission to downshift into second gear.

Dealers will update the powertrain control module software. Letters notifying owners of the safety risk are expected to be mailed April 27, while additional letters will be sent once the final remedy is available, which is expected in July.

Fed's Waller Says Prolonged Iran Conflict Could Block Path to Rate Cuts

One of the Federal Reserve's most outspoken supporters of recent interest-rate cuts said Friday that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could remove the central bank's scope for bringing rates lower this year.

In a speech at Alabama's Auburn University, Fed governor Christopher Waller said that if the Iran war means a continuing blockage of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, higher prices could ripple through the American economy and force the Fed to stay on guard against inflation. In that scenario, the Fed may have to hold interest rates steady even if the labor market is weakening, Waller said.

"That may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market," Waller said, according to a published text of his remarks.

Commerce Secretary Lutnick Says Trade Deal With Canada, Mexico Needs to Be 'Reconsidered'

OTTAWA - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that President Trump considers the present U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade treaty to be a poor deal that needs to be "reconsidered and reimagined."

Speaking at a conference organized by media outlet Semafor, Lutnick also harshly criticized Canada's approach to the trade strategy with Washington, and efforts by Prime Minister Mark Carney to rekindle trade ties with China.

"They suck," Lutnick said. A Commerce Department spokesperson said the secretary was referring to the trade imbalance with Canada, and "how Canada sucks off of our $30 trillion economy." The U.S. recorded in 2025 a trade deficit of $46.4 billion with Canada, largely due to energy shipments from western Canada to America.

Expected Major Events for Monday

04:00/MAL: Mar External Trade

04:30/JPN: Feb Tertiary Industry Index

05:00/JPN: Mar Convenience Store Sales

09:59/CHN: Mar FDI Foreign Direct Investment

09:59/CHN: People's Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement

22:00/NZ: 1Q NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

22:45/NZ: 1Q CPI

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 19, 2026 16:30 ET (20:30 GMT)

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