Yardeni Says Buy Energy Stocks — Just As Trump's Iran Ceasefire Runs Out Of Time

Benzinga_recent_news03:19

Ed Yardeni flipped back to overweight Energy this week after giving up on the sector two years ago, suggesting that the recent pullback in oil stocks is a gift to investors willing to bet that oil ...

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The first is physical damage to energy infrastructure across the Arabian Gulf.\nThe second is a structural repricing of maritime insurance and transit confidence through the Strait of Hormuz.\nEven a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Yardeni indicates, would not immediately restore normal oil flows. As he puts it: “The supply shock is likely to have a long tail.”\nBank of America’s commodity team, led by Francisco Blanch, lands in roughly the same neighborhood on oil prices.\nIn the Global Energy Weekly published Monday, the bank projects Brent oil averaging $93 per barrel in 2026, with a peak of $103 in the second quarter before drifting back toward $78 in 2027.\nNon-OPEC supply growth of 400,000 barrels per day gets overwhelmed by roughly 4 million barrels per day of OPEC disruptions tied to the Iran war. \nThe oil market, on BofA’s math, falls into a 4-million-barrel-per-day deficit in the second quarter before grinding back toward balance next year.\nGoldman Sachs tracks closer to $ 80–$90 Brent in similar war scenarios, which puts Yardeni’s $ 75–$95 call squarely within the Wall Street consensus band on oil prices.\nThe Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund was the runaway leader of the S&P 500 heading into late March. \nBy Friday, March 27, the Energy ETF was up 40.84% year-to-date, leaving every other sector in the dust as the war in Iran pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel.\nThen Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7, and the trade reversed hard.\nWhile XLE still leads the S&P 500 sector table for the year at 25.22%, its margin of leadership has been halved over the past three weeks.\nAccording to Country ETF Tracker data, XLE has fallen 10.24% since Trump floated the end of the war — the worst performance among all 11 S&P 500 sectors over that window. Every other sector is green or close to flat.\nThis is the valuation angle that makes the Yardeni Energy stocks call interesting beyond the oil price view.\nXLE now trades at roughly 16 times forward earnings. That compares with 23.9 times for the S&P 500 via SPY and 30 times for the Technology sector.\nWhat that means in practice: even if Brent oil drifts toward the lower end of the $75-to-$95 range, Energy stocks are discounting a much worse outcome than the oil supermajors’ cash flow profiles suggest.\nThe bear case for Energy stocks is straightforward. A confirmation of a US-Iran deal resets Brent oil below $80, the insurance premium unwinds faster than expected, and XLE gives back a chunk of its YTD gain.\nWhat Yardeni is effectively arguing is that both paths still leave Brent oil higher than the pre-war range — and Energy stocks at 16 times earnings are pricing neither of them.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2629052034","isCrawlerRequest":true}