Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On April 24?

Benzinga17:38

The S&P 500 slipped 0.41% on Thursday to close at 7,108.40, retreating from fresh intraday highs as investors weighed renewed Iran war risks against a strong earnings backdrop.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Friday. The April 24 market shows about 62% of traders betting "Up," with the other 38% expecting a lower open for the benchmark index.

Why That Number Matters

Thursday's pullback underscored how sensitive markets remain to headlines out of the Middle East, even with the benchmark hovering near record territory.

Sentiment improved after President Donald Trump said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks, raising hopes that broader regional tensions may continue to cool.

At the same time, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk after Trump warned the U.S. Navy would respond aggressively to any new threats in the waterway.

Corporate earnings have also continued to support sentiment. More than 85% S&P 500 companies reporting so far have topped EPS expectations, according to FactSet data. After the close on Thursday, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) jumped in extended trading following an earnings beat and upbeat forecast. Shares of the U.S. chipmaker were up 26% before the bell on Friday.

Investors will also watch results from Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC), and Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR), along with April's final Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

The Bull Case

Despite Thursday's decline, futures suggest the market may stabilize. S&P 500 futures were hovering near flat in early trading.

The recent rally has also been underpinned by continued strength in chipmakers, a key driver of broader index performance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (NASDAQ:SOXX) is on a record hot streak, crossing the 10,000 milestone for the first time on Thursday, thanks to strong AI demand.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,118.80, below the prior close of 7,137.90. The April 23 Polymarket bet resolved "Down," with the crowd calling the lower open close to the bell, with $184,545 in traded volume.

Image via Shutterstock

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