The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day. Japanese stocks may decline as prospects of U.S.-Iran peace talks diminished. Vice President JD Vance canceled plans to travel to Pakistan for negotiations with Iran over ending the war. Nikkei futures are down 0.7% at 58945 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.43 yen, compared with Y158.88 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on the Middle East conflict as well as any Japanese government measures to help secure energy and petrochemical products. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.9% to 59349.17 on Tuesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1850 ET [Dow Jones]--The uncertainty around the future of the Federal Reserve's leadership risks igniting the sell America trade, says Joe Capurso, head of global macroeconomics at CBA. With Kevin Warsh yet to be confirmed as the new Fed chair, the focus is on Republican Senator Thom Tillis who opposes the confirmation and will continue to do so until the Justice Department drops its investigation into current chair Powell. Everything will come to a head on May 15 when Powell's term ends, says Capurso. The uncertainty for markets could weigh heavily on the US dollar.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1557 ET - Treasury yields rise as WSJ reports Vice-President Vance is pausing his trip to Pakistan for peace talks with Iran. Tensions spike as Tehran accuses the U.S. of breaking the cease-fire with its blockade of Iranian ports. Brent cruse rises more than 5% and the WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.4%. Warsh's hearing goes mostly as expected and markets keep pricing a prolonged Fed hold. March retail sales rise more than expected. The 10-year adds 0.041 percentage point to 4.290%. The two-year rises 0.062 p.p. to 3.778%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1527 ET - Inflation is likely to be softer than markets expect, creating an opportunity to invest in short-term Treasurys, Morgan Stanley's Vishal Khanduja says. "Inflation from a commodity-based supply-side shock in a developed country like the U.S., which is a net exporter of oil, should not be that much of a worry," he says. Khanduja has increased allocation in the front end, betting on up to two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Markets are mostly pricing no cuts in the next 12 months. Khanduja also sold investment-grade corporates, which he considers too pricey. He is buying agency mortgage-backed securities and emerging market bonds, including Brazil and Mexico. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1430 ET - For good reason, Fed policy decisions are split among Washington-based and regional officials who reflect diverse geographic interests, Fed governor Christopher Waller says in a speech in Washington. But the Fed system could grow more efficient if back-office operations are streamlined, he argues. Functions like IT, HR and accounting exhibit unnecessary duplication across the Fed's 12 reserve banks and the Fed should consider consolidating them, Waller argues. He says that if an outside consultant were designing the system from scratch, functions that don't need to be local would be "concentrated in a small number of operations centers located in lower-cost cities or those that have a comparative labor skills advantage." The Fed is in its policy-communications blackout ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, but officials are still permitted to speak on non-monetary topics. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1409 ET - Aave, the token used for governance of the Aave DeFi platform, is showing a rebound after the weekend's hack of Kelp DAO, which sent shockwaves as fear rippled through DeFi lenders. The hack of Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge resulted in the draining of thousands of rsETH tokens worth over $200 million, according to data from Etherscan. Drained tokens were then used as collateral for loans on DeFi platforms like Aave, sparking an exodus of billions of dollars from DeFi as a whole, according to Etherscan. From Saturday until today, Aave remains down 19%, but the token has gained roughly 5-6% in the past 24 hours, says CoinMarketCap. The token is trading $91.72 currently. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1403 ET - Bonds sell off, bumping yields higher, as Kevin Warsh makes the case for Fed reform while a new round of U.S.-Iran peace talks remains uncertain. In a two-hour Senate hearing, the Fed chair nominee avoids discussing Trump's economic policies and pledges commitment to central bank independence. He proposed less Fed communication with the press and a smaller balance sheet. Tehran is yet to decide on sending negotiators to Pakistan to meet with U.S. officials. The 10-year is at 4.296%, up from 4.268% this morning. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2% and Brent crude is up 3%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1141 ET - Recent price shocks created by crude oil volatility give academics an opportunity to study bitcoin's effectiveness as a safe haven asset as opposed to being a risk-on investment choice. David Krause with Marquette University says in a study that during the ongoing war with Iran, bitcoin shifted from being "primarily as a high-beta risk asset during normal periods" to exhibiting "conditional hedge-like characteristics." However, a similar shift was not seen during the U.S. military operation in Venezuela. "During the Venezuela event, bitcoin did not exhibit hedging characteristics and instead responded asymmetrically to oil price declines," Krause says. He concludes that bitcoin's behavior "appears contingent on the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1131 ET - Equifax is seeing more mortgage originators are using VantageScore more to measure prospective borrowers' creditworthiness. The new credit score, which regulators approved last year to be used on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages, is gaining momentum among originators who have traditionally relied on Fair Isaac's FICO score. Equifax says it expects conversions to VantageScore to accelerate once the government activates the score by providing the data and infrastructure needed to make it used more widely. Equifax lowered its VantageScore pricing to incentivize conversion to the new score. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1117 ET - Where some observers took comfort in the latest Canadian inflation data, Scotiabank's Derek Holt saw warnings signs. The economist reckons Canada may be emerging from a temporary soft patch on core inflation metrics, noting that trimmed mean and weighted median inflation accelerated to the 2%-3% range in on-month seasonally adjusted annualized terms. He adds traditional core CPI was held back by one main category in March, clothing and footwear, and after controlling for this the reading was considerably stronger. The breadth of price increases also remains elevated, Holt adds. "It feels like Canada has a wicked case of confirmation bias whereby people don't want to see or believe any evidence of inflation," he says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1115 ET - Gold prices extend losses on a firmer dollar and as traders closely watch developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and a Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair. New York futures fall 1.6% to $4,750.20 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is up 0.2% to 98.30. "Higher inflation could keep the Fed on hold, potentially making the case for rate cuts less compelling," analysts at ANZ say. "Investors will be watching nominee Warsh's comments on Tuesday to get guidance." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1103 ET - Structurally higher oil prices resulting from the war in the Middle East are more likely to have an impact on inflation than on economic growth, says Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton. "We think oil prices are going to be higher for the foreseeable future, looking out a year and longer." Oil is not as impactful for the U.S. as it used to be, he says."We don't see impact on earnings and growth in the economy, but we do see an impact on inflation. We are not in the stagflation camp." The inflation number might not increase that much, but the effect could be "pretty significant" for the median and lower-end consumer, he adds.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 21, 2026 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments