When Transport Stocks Rally, Recession Risks Fade: Technicals -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones04-24 22:41

By Doug Busch

Strength across transport stocks, including FedEx, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and CSX, sends a clear signal that underlying economic activity remains resilient. As cyclical barometers of freight demand, these companies are seeing stable volumes and improving sentiment, a dynamic inconsistent with an incoming recession.

Even peers like United Parcel Service, which reports earnings next week, are firming. UPS has posted three consecutive 4% weekly advances and is quickly building the right side of a cup base. Railroad stocks Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are up 6% and 8% this week, respectively.

A deeper dive into FedEx, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and CSX highlights the underlying strength supporting our constructive view.

FedEx

FedEx's daily chart illustrates how it has performed well against its main rival UPS over the past year. During that time, FDX advanced 82% while UPS added just 9%:

The chart also shows accumulation with heavy volume during significant price advances dating back to September. Round number theory is coming into play at the $400 level with two doji candles this week. Bulls are in control as the stock trades comfortably above a double bottom with a handle pivot of $380.24, which was taken out on April 16.

Look for FedEx to move toward $435 in mid-2026, corresponding to an 11% gain from current prices. Enter on a pullback at $385. Remain bullish above $365. FedEx was trading around $389 Friday.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services

The transportation and logistics company has gained 31% year to date and 96% over the past 12 months. The stock trades just 1% below its all-time high and has nearly doubled from the late September lows.

The weekly chart illustrates how round number theory came into play at the $200 figure:

Resistance proved tough to overcome starting in April 2022, where it recorded a bearish evening star. The $200 figures was tough to penetrate again that August, twice in 2023, and in November 2024 (it briefly broke above it in the first quarter of 2024). That level of former resistance turned into support in 2026. A doji candle the last week of March led to a four-week win streak.

Note the ratio chart against peer Old Dominion Freight Line broke above a cup base and has now formed a bull flag pattern. JBHT decisively broke above a weekly double bottom pivot of $219.60 the first week of February, which saw a 13% rally.

Look to enter on a pullback near $240 and this could reach $315 by year-end, representing a 24% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $220. JBHT was trading around $251 Friday.

CSX

The rail operator has gained 27% year to date and 66% over the past 12 months. Against the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF, the ratio chart has performed very well since April 2025. The stock is up 6% this week heading after a well-received earnings reaction Wednesday.

Looking at its daily chart one can see the powerful run the stock recorded from May into August before a bullish ascending triangle took shape:

The $37 pivot broke above in January in a five-month pattern. We know that the longer the base, the more likely a breakout is to succeed. CSX offered an add on buy point from a cup with handle trigger of $43.11, which was taken out on April 17. Note how the depth of the cup base successfully retested the ascending triangle breakout on March 20.

Enter on a pullback at $45.25 and look for the stock to travel toward $54 by mid-2026, representing a 17% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $42. CSX was trading around $46 Friday.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

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April 24, 2026 10:41 ET (14:41 GMT)

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