By Doug Busch
Looking back at stock picks isn't just an exercise in keeping score, it's a way to sharpen the investment process. Markets evolve, narratives shift, and even well-reasoned calls can play out differently than expected. Revisiting what worked and what didn't helps separate skill from luck, test underlying assumptions, and refine how future opportunities are evaluated.
This week we discuss the following picks:
-- Ulta Beauty, introduced by Teresa Rivas in February. -- Peabody Energy, covered by Dan Victor in September. -- U-Haul Holding, written by Andrew Bary in September.
This note revisits past stock picks where new developments favor fresh buy or sell signals. Read last week's edition here.
Ulta Beauty
The U.S. beauty retailer is up 56% over the past year but down 6% year to date. It trades 20% below its 52-week high and is seeking its first consecutive weekly gain since the start of 2026. The stock is down 17% since our recommendation.
The stock's daily chart shows its strength since the start of April following the bullish MACD crossover:
Notice how round number theory came into play at the $500 figure, where the level acted as resistance in May and August (with bearish shooting stars) and provided support between August and November. The $700 area proved too tough to penetrate after three consecutive doji candles from Jan. 21 to Jan. 23. From there it moved back to $500 on March 24, recording a bullish hammer. This Monday ULTA recaptured its 200-day simple moving average.
One can enter here as the stock builds the right side of a double bottom base and look for it to travel back toward $700 by year-end, representing a 23% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $550. Ulta Beauty was trading around $570 Wednesday.
Peabody Energy
The coal producer has come under pressure recently, logging a three-week losing streak, closing each week near the lows. Even with this pullback the stock is up 120% over the past year, though it has fallen about 13% since our recommendation.
The daily chart reveals a strong possibility of a bullish MACD crossover:
Peabody's recent history shows a short-lived breakout above a cup-with-handle pivot of $31.90 on Jan. 6, followed by a failure to break above a cup base at the round $40 mark. A bearish shooting star on March 19 was 3% above $40 intraday but closed well off those highs. Credit the name for completing a bullish morning star formation Tuesday, with a doji on Monday. Bulls would ideally like to see a recapture of the 200 day simple moving average but this offers good risk/reward here.
Look for the stock to travel toward $40 again by the end of third quarter, corresponding to a 48% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $25.50. Peabody Energy was trading around $27 Wednesday.
U-Haul Holding
The renting and leasing company is down 8% over the past year but has surged 15% over the past month. The stock is looking for its first five week win streak since December 2023. It is benefiting from a strong housing market, gaining from the resurgent iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF.
Looking at the stock's daily chart shows the start of some good relative strength on the ratio chart against the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF since February:
U-Haul has met resistance near the downward-sloping 200-day simple moving average, much as it did in January and February. But it broke above the double bottom breakout pivot of $48.71 on April 17. Notice the completion of the bullish morning star on March 23, right when a bullish MACD crossover was recorded. One can also argue that it has broken above a bearish head and shoulders pattern at the $45 level.
Look for the stock to travel toward $63 by year end, corresponding to a 29% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $45. U-Haul was trading around $49 Wednesday.
The real value of a lookback lies not in the wins or losses, but in what they reveal about the process behind them.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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April 23, 2026 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT)
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