By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 27.
A string of decisions by major central banks are due, including from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, while markets will continue to scrutinize tensions in the Middle East.
Rates aren't expected to be changed this month. However, investors will be looking to see how various central banks view the impact of the energy-price spike caused by the Middle East war and how likely it is that rates could move in the coming months as a result.
Key data include the first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product and provisional eurozone inflation figures for April. In Asia, China's PMI readings will be closely watched for signs of momentum ahead of the May Day holiday.
U.S.
The Federal Reserve announces a decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
No new forecasts or rate projections are due, leaving focus on the Fed's commentary regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices. Investors will watch in particular how much weight policymakers place on concerns about the impact on growth versus concerns about the risks to inflation.
Jerome Powell remains Fed chair for now, but the confirmation hearing for President Trump's choice for his replacement, Kevin Warsh, was held recently.
Money markets price in unchanged rates this year, according to LSEG data. However, they price a greater risk of the Fed cutting rates than raising them. The U.S., as a net energy exporter, is less exposed to the impact of high energy prices on inflation than many other countries. Trump has also expressed a preference for lower interest rates.
"Our view remains that a Warsh-led Fed would be more dovish on the rates front," said Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar in a note. Jefferies expects two rate cuts from the Fed.
The confirmation of the new Fed chair, and any associated shift in policy direction, will remain an important focus, said Rushabh Amin, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments in a note.
Investors will also pay close attention to the advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Thursday, which will give an indication of how the U.S. economy has fared during the Middle East war. PCE inflation data for March and the first-quarter employment cost index are released on the same day, followed by the ISM survey on manufacturing activity in April on Friday.
Other data include the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey for April on Tuesday, durable goods and housing starts for March on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims Thursday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year and $70 billion in five-year notes on Monday, as well as $44 billion in seven-year notes on Tuesday.
Canada
The Bank of Canada announces an interest-rate decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
With core inflation broadly in line with the central bank's target and the unemployment rate looking stabilized, another on-hold decision "looks certain," said ING economist James Knightley in a note.
"Markets are pricing one 25 basis-point rate hike by the end of the year, but we are in the camp that looks for the BOC to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged throughout 2026," he said.
Canadian gross domestic product data for February are due on Thursday.
Latin America
Brazil's central bank announces a policy decision on Wednesday, where it could reduce its main Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% from 14.75%.
"High global uncertainty steaming from oil price shock will push the Central Bank of Brazil to deliver another moderate cut in basic rates in April," HSBC economists said in a note.
Eurozone
The European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday is the key event in the single currency area. The ECB is very likely to leave interest rates on hold in order to give it time to analyze the impact of the Middle East war and the increasing oil supply shortage on inflation and growth.
Investors will be keen to hear any hint from the ECB on the potential future need for an insurance interest-rate hike, should it become necessary.
"Financial markets are reacting to the geopolitical back-and-forth with a sense of foresight, which currently reduces the pressure on central banks to act," analysts at Raiffeisen Bank said. "Inflation rates will continue to rise, however--even in an optimistic conflict scenario."
Flash estimate CPI data for April from Europe's major four economies--Germany, France, Italy and Spain--as well as from the eurozone, and first estimate GDP data are up for release. These data will reflect the first impacts of the Middle East war on both inflation and growth.
Eurozone data releases will start with Germany's GfK consumer climate survey on Monday, followed by Spanish first-quarter unemployment and March retail sales data, Italy's February industrial turnover and the European Central Bank's consumer expectations and bank lending surveys on Tuesday.
Flash estimate Spanish and German CPI data are due Wednesday, as well as Italian and eurozone confidence surveys for April and eurozone money supply data for March.
Flash estimate GDP data for the first quarter will be released from France, Spain, Italy, Germany and the eurozone on Thursday.
"Recent survey data point to a softening in activity towards the end of the first quarter as elevated prices and uncertainty weigh on consumption and investment, and we expect a weaker growth picture over the second quarter," Investec analyst Lottie Gosling said in a note.
Government bond supply will slow ahead of a long weekend. Belgium will hold a bond auction Monday, followed by the Netherlands on Tuesday, Italy on Wednesday and Germany's February 2036 Bund tap also on Wednesday.
U.K.
The Bank of England announces a policy decision on Thursday and is widely expected to keep its key policy rate at 3.75%.
Focus will center on how policymakers balance concerns about the risk of higher energy prices feeding into inflation and wages in the coming months against the potential harm they could do to the economy.
BOE policymakers are likely to update markets on the central bank's "reaction function to the U.S.-Iran war," providing insights on their views on both inflation and growth, Nomura analysts said in a note.
U.K. money markets currently fully price two 25 basis-point rate increases this year, with a first one in July, LSEG data show. However, some analysts expect that rate hikes might not materialize if the damage to the economy from the energy-price shock is significant.
"We expect the [BOE's] monetary policy committee to signal it will monitor the situation closely and warn that it will hike if the threat of second-round effects mounts," Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said in a note.
Economic data during the week include the BRC shop price index for April on Tuesday, followed by mortgage lending and consumer credit data for March and the final reading of April manufacturing PMI on Friday.
The U.K. plans two programmatic gilt tenders on Tuesday for the January 2028 gilt and the June 2032 gilt.
Scandinavia
Norway will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its two-day meeting ending Tuesday, amid uncertainty over developments in the Middle East. The policy board will also release its latest growth and inflation forecasts. Rising oil prices pose a risk to inflation, but the BOJ is likely to keep its stance of assessing conditions before raising rates further.
"In light of recent developments, including heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, we now expect a hold in April and tentatively push back our forecast for the next hike to June," said Takayasu Kudo, Japan economist at BofA Global Research. He added that the next increase could be delayed beyond July should disruptions related to the Middle East become protracted.
Government data due Friday is expected to show consumer inflation in Tokyo, excluding volatile fresh food, rose 1.8% in April from a year earlier, following March's 1.7%, according to a Quick poll. The impact of higher energy prices is likely to be limited by government subsidies.
March unemployment data is due Tuesday, followed by industrial production and retail sales on Thursday.
The Ministry of Finance will hold two auctions during the week. It will sell about 2.8 trillion yen of two-year notes on Thursday and about 250 billion yen of 10-year inflation-indexed bonds on Friday. Demand for the latter might be stronger among investors concerned over rising inflation.
China
All eyes are on gauges of China's manufacturing and services activity as surveys elsewhere begin to show the strain of supply-chain disruptions and price pressures caused by the war in the Middle East.
Many economists expect to see a pullback in the official manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs for April, with some projecting a slide back below the 50-level separating activity and expansion.
Economists at ING expect to see evidence of price pressures continuing to build in the PMI sub-indexes, and predict that both official gauges will tip back into contraction.
ANZ analysts expect that business confidence will likely have been weighed down by the war, though improving industrial indicators, including higher utilization rates in cement and steel, should lend support to the manufacturing data.
Thursday will also see the release of S&P Global's RatingDog surveys, which focus more on China's smaller, private-sector companies.
Investors will be watching to see if the private gauges outperform official ones again, but beyond the headline figures, focus will also be on indicators of orders, employment and input costs. Flash PMIs from elsewhere in Asia showed an uptick in manufacturing in April, but at least part of that was driven by stockpiling due to fears about war-driven supply shortages, and business confidence is dimming as supply chains come under stress.
Another indicator to watch is industrial profit data for March, due on Monday, which will show if earnings remain under pressure from price wars and overcapacity.
Eyes are also on a Politburo scheduled to be held around the final week of April.
Economists at Goldman Sachs think policymakers will maintain a pro-growth stance, focusing on the implementation of planned easing measures.
Although officials will likely express increased concern about the global energy shock and geopolitical uncertainties, they may see little urgency for significant stimulus near-term after solid growth in the first quarter. "Considering higher energy prices and PPI inflation, we see a possibility that policymakers may downplay their pledge for high-profile monetary easing such as policy rate cuts," Goldman said.
Australia / New Zealand
Australia's first-quarter inflation data on Wednesday will be the key release, shaping expectations for a possible rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May.
The RBA has signaled concern about inflation, with the economy already near capacity before the conflict in the Middle East drove up gasoline prices. Wage growth is picking up, and inflation expectations have risen.
A modest upside surprise could be enough for the RBA to deliver a third interest rate increase this year, especially with some economists warning core inflation could rise by 1.0% in the quarter.
The data will also set the backdrop for the federal budget in mid-May, with economists arguing that government spending is adding to inflation pressures.
In New Zealand, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman will speak on Wednesday, likely furthering the central bank's hawkish narrative on inflation and interest rates. She recently told The Wall Street Journal that she is focused on achieving the inflation target mandated for the central bank, saying, "It must be achieved."
Still, the RBNZ is aware that unemployment is elevated and that there is a lot of spare capacity in the economy, which may deter interest rate increases for now.
South Korea
South Korea will release April trade data Friday, with exports expected to remain strong on semiconductor demand. Analysts expect the country to post solid annual trade and current-account surpluses this year.
Citigroup expects South Korea's outbound shipments to grow 46.3% on year for the month, pointing to another record-high chip exports for the first 20 days of April. That follows a revised 49.2% rise recorded in March.
The analysts expect imports to rise 12.9% on year in April, resulting in a $24.8 billion trade surplus after a revised $26.24 billion surplus in March. The country's annual trade surplus is forecast to reach 10.5% of gross domestic product this year compared with 6.6% of GDP last year, according to Citi estimates.
Thailand
The Bank of Thailand is widely expected to keep its benchmark policy rate at 1.00% on Wednesday, as growth softens and inflationary pressures rise. Thailand is vulnerable to rising energy prices due to its reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East.
Policymakers are likely to look through the initial rise in oil-driven inflation and take a wait-and-see approach while assessing risks to growth, DBS said. The economy remains below its prepandemic levels of growth, weighed by high household debt and weak consumption.
Tourism, a key growth driver, is also showing signs of slowing. Early April data point to weaker momentum following the Songkran holiday, BoFA Securities economists said.
Taiwan
Taiwan will release its first-quarter advance gross domestic product data on Thursday, likely showing slower but still strong growth. Exports, particularly semiconductors, are expected to support the economy, reflecting Taiwan's position in high-precision semiconductor production, said ANZ Research's Raymond Yeung.
For the second quarter, ANZ is closely monitoring the potential effects from the Middle East conflict on gas supplies for energy as well as critical inputs to chip manufacturing, notably helium. ANZ expects Taiwan's 1Q GDP growth to come in at 11.8% compared to a year ago, slightly lower than 4Q's 12.65% increase.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 24, 2026 11:54 ET (15:54 GMT)
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