AGS WEEK AHEAD: Traders on Weather Watch, Federal Reserve in Focus

Dow Jones04-28
 

By Joe Stonor

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of April 27 - May 1 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Higher oil prices were set to support oilseeds as the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a stalemate after peace talks slated for the weekend were called off.

Traders are watching U.S. weather closely after drought threatened wheat crops. Forecasts provide limited relief for farmers in western Kansas and eastern Colorado.

Around 30% of soybean production, 27% of corn production and 70% of winter wheat production in the U.S. were in areas affected by drought last week, according to data compiled by U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought and sourced from the National Drought Mitigation Center.

However, drier conditions help improve the pace of planting in the U.S. Corn Belt, a bearish signal for corn and beans, according to analysts at Peak Trading Research.

Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision will also drive the outlook for agricultural commodities. Any suggestion that rate-setters are open to cuts would be supportive of commodities, the Peak Trading Research analysts said.

Wheat futures were 1.6% higher in Chicago at $6.26 a bushel in afternoon European trade Monday, while corn futures rose 1.2% to $4.69 a bushel. Soybeans climbed 1.2% to $11.93 a bushel--around steady on-week after dipping close to $11.70 on Thursday.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Traders are increasingly expecting an El Nino weather event this year. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center places a 61% chance of El Nino emerging between May and July this year.

Implications are varied for agricultural commodities. For cocoa, El Nino can lead to drier conditions in West Africa and South America, tightening supply. On the other hand, coffee crops in Brazil are already being harvested, protecting supplies from any weather shock, Kucrop Analytics' strategist Lukas Kuemmerle said.

Cocoa prices continue to be capped by large stockpiles of the commodity, Rabobank's Oran van Dort said. Futures in New York slipped 3.5% to $3,311 a metric ton.

Coffee futures were 2.3% lower at $2.88 a pound, while sugar edged 0.1% lower to 14.09 cents a pound.

 

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 27, 2026 12:14 ET (16:14 GMT)

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