MW Could a jet-fuel shortage turn your European summer vacation into a nightmare?
By Claudia Assis
Fear of getting stranded is suddenly on the minds of airline passengers
Travelers at London's Heathrow airport. Jet-fuel costs are a source of anxiety for airlines and their passengers. Europe-based carriers are particularly feeling the heat.
Americans planning a European summer vacation are facing the prospect of having their dream trip turn into a nightmare as the war between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved.
The increasing price of jet fuel in Europe has been one of the most emblematic effects of the conflict and the disruption it has caused in energy markets. Europe gets about 60% of its jet fuel from refineries in the Persian Gulf, according to OPIS, a unit of Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch. Much of that jet fuel remains trapped in Middle East due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, airlines have cut thousands of flights to save on fuel expenses. That has increased ticket prices and made inconvenient flight cancellations more likely. But airlines and industry experts say it's unlikely that Americans will be stranded in Europe this summer.
Airlines have been managing the jet-fuel situation by cutting flights along routes that have several other flights available, and trimming flights that are on routes with weak passenger demand or that depart at unpopular times, said Henry Harteveldt, an airline-industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group. Harteveldt also said the airlines are making schedule changes well ahead of peak summer travel season so as not to catch travelers unawares.
"No airline wants to be the Grinch that ruined summer vacation," he said.
Harteveldt said he recently attended an industry gathering in Berlin with dozens of European airline executives, and the airlines made it clear that the issue, at least so far, is more about jet-fuel prices rather than availability.
"Jet-fuel cost right now is the airlines' primary source of anxiety," he said.
Global air carriers are walking a fine line between ongoing strong demand for air travel and rising costs - fuel is second only to labor costs in the airline industry. U.S. airlines have said that the issue is more acute for their European counterparts, but also expect higher fuel prices for the rest of the year.
U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend never materialized; on Monday, Iran offered to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz if the war ends. About a fifth of the world's crude and crude products pass through the strait in times of peace.
'Do your research ahead of time if traveling to smaller destinations in Europe'
Airlines might just have to live with uncertainty, said Rob Britton, a professor at Georgetown University and a former executive at American Airlines.
"It really depends on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can be opened up to normal petroleum shipping," he said. "If this drags on for another month, its going to be really, really terrible for airlines in Europe and the rest of the world."
Airlines are scrambling to find alternate sources of jet fuel, but supply chains are set up long in advance, he said. Even after the conflict reaches a resolution, it could take about six to eight weeks, possibly longer, for the situation with jet fuel to normalize, and it likely will depend on each individual airport, he said.
"Even if [the strait] opens tomorrow, supply chains take a while to rebuild," Britton said. "Everyone in the airline industry would love to have a greater sense of certainty, but that's simply impossible in this situation."
Britton has a trip scheduled from the U.K. to Venice in June. "I'm watching the situation very closely," he said, adding that while he sees risks of disruption, there's little risk of complete cancellations.
Supplies of jet fuel in Europe and of cooking gas in Asia are among the crude products "becoming very short in supply," Chevron $(CVX)$ CEO Mike Wirth said in an interview with CBS News' "Face The Nation" that has not yet been aired. "I think aviation is clearly an area where it's going to probably get worse over the next few weeks."
U.S. spot jet-fuel prices hovered around $2 a gallon to $2.50 a gallon in early February. With the start of the hostilities in late February, prices got closer to $5 a gallon; currently, prices are on average around $4 a gallon. In Europe, prices are about $4.50 a gallon, according to OPIS.
The situation varies from country to country, said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS.
Spain, for example, is not as impacted due to its refining capacity. The U.K. doesn't have the same refining capacity and is the home of Heathrow airport, one of the world's busiest, resulting in heavy demand for jet fuel.
Jet fuel is a complex product because of its transportation, segregation and storage requirements, and the dire consequences of a potential airplane-engine malfunction.
Refiners have to follow very precise sets of specifications for jet fuel, and also have to make sure the product is completely segregated from other derivatives and adequately stored.
"With jet fuel, you've got to be extra careful," Cinquegrana said.
In March, two cargos of jet fuel went to Europe from New York harbor, which Cinquegrana said it was a "very rare" occurrence that wouldn't have made economic sense before the war.
For Americans headed to Europe this summer, Harteveldt offered some advice. He suggested airline passengers double check with their airline to make sure their reservation is intact. People who booked their tickets through a travel agency should also make sure that the airline itself has their contact information - phone and email - so they can be contacted in cases of important changes, like a flight cancellation.
And "do your research ahead of time if traveling to smaller destinations in Europe," he said.
That means looking into what other flights might be available, and into other modes of transportation, such as rail. A refundable reservation on one of Europe's many high-speed trains could become useful if the situation becomes more dire and your flight doesn't operate, Harteveldt said.
-Claudia Assis
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 28, 2026 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)
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