The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0648 GMT - Bitcoin falls as concerns over stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and tensions in the critical Strait of Hormuz reduce demand for risky assets. President Trump said Sunday on Fox News that he isn't sending U.S. envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran. He said Iran can call or "come to us" if they want to talk. Trump also said Iran has about three days before its oil pipelines risk explosion from being clogged up. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boarded two containerships near the strait, the country's Tasnim news agency said Sunday. Bitcoin falls 0.8% to $77,627, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0643 GMT - It is still premature to call a bottom in China's housing market despite encouraging signs in new- and secondary-market home sales in major cities, economists at Barclays Research say. The recent pick-up in property sales partly reflects pent-up demand for school-district and lower-priced homes, the economists say in a note. While the pent-up demand may fade, low base effects should support property sales in 2H, they say. In contrast to the pick-up in sales, the economists expect a deep contraction in property investment. The 11.2% contraction in property investment in 1Q is broadly in line with Barclays's forecast for an 11% contraction in 2026, they add.(monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0643 GMT - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average climbed 1.4% to 60537.36, closing above the 60000 threshold for the first time. Electronics stocks led the gains, with both Fanuc and Keyence jumping 16% following their quarterly results. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rises 3 basis points to 2.465%. The dollar is at 159.38 yen, little changed from Y159.37 late Friday in New York. Investors are focusing on quarterly corporate earnings as well as developments in the Middle East. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0639 GMT - The dollar trades steady after reaching a near three-week high overnight as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stall. President Trump told Fox News Sunday that he isn't sending U.S. envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran, saying "if they want to talk, they can come to us or they can call us." Trump also said Iran has about three days before its oil pipelines risk explosion from being clogged up. However, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that the conflict will be resolved relatively soon, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.536 after reaching as high as 99.343 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0616 GMT - China's producer price index likely to rise further in the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs economists in a research note. As GS raises its crude oil price forecasts by more than 10% on low flows through the Strait of Hormuz and based on oil price's pass-through, it revises its forecasts for China PPI for 2026 and 2027 to 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, from 1.0% and 0.6%. GS keeps its consumer price index forecasts unchanged, as oil price pass-through to CPI is likely to be limited comparatively to PPI. Other disinflationary factors, such as lower pork prices, should provide some offset, they note. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0602 GMT - The European Central Bank is expected to remain attentive to elevated oil prices, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note ahead of this week's ECB policy meeting. With the U.S. having paused its negotiation efforts with Iran and the situation in the strait remaining gridlocked, it is unlikely that oil prices will see near-term relief, the rates strategist says. "This should keep the European Central Bank on alert, but a rate hike as early as this week remains premature," Guntermann says. Money markets fully price in two interest-rate hikes by the ECB in the second half of the year, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0554 GMT - China's official manufacturing PMI likely edged lower to 50.2 in April from 50.4 in March, economists at Barclays Research say. High frequency indicators suggest manufacturing operating rates in petrochemical-related sectors including PVC, asphalt and auto tyres declined visibly in April amid the ongoing Mideast conflict, they say in a note. The softer activity likely reflects rising feedstock costs, which have squeezed margins and weighed on production, they say. The economists reckon that the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, which surveys more export- and consumer-goods-oriented firms, likely rose to 51.2 from 50.8 in March, given the better regional trade performance. The PMI data are due Thursday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0553 GMT - With the conflict in the Middle East entering its ninth week, central bankers are forced to give their assessment on the experienced impact and their expectations going forward, Danske Bank's Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo says in a note. The Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings this week. "This week, monetary policy decisions will be the primary market movers," the assistant analyst says. All the five central banks are expected to keep their rates on hold but their assessments on the economic impact of the Middle East conflict will be closely watched. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0548 GMT - Morgan Stanley sells Austria's February 2036-dated government bond, seeing them trading at an expensive level relative to fair value, and buys the Netherlands' July 2036 bond, strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. In eurozone government bonds, "we enter short Austria vs Netherlands or Germany as an alternative, as we think Austria is trading rich compared to other countries with similar macro fundamentals," they say. Morgan Stanley enters the Austrian-Dutch bond trade at a 14-basis-point spread, targeting 19bps and setting a stop at 10bps. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0541 GMT - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its price projections in its quarterly report due Tuesday, but the move might not signal a faster pace for interest-rate increases, SMBC Nikko Securities economists say. "As this acceleration in inflation is cost-push driven, the BOJ is unlikely to view it as a change in underlying inflation," they say. "It is unlikely to prompt the bank to accelerate its rate-hike pace, which is currently expected to happen roughly once every six months," they add. In its January report, the BOJ projected consumer inflation, excluding fresh food, would rise 1.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2027. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0533 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trading, with little progress toward a resolution in the Middle East keeping oil prices higher. Along with the Middle East developments, this week's busy schedule of central bank meetings, including that of the Federal Reserve, are in focus. "The Fed is widely expected to keep the target range for the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting," Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad says in a note. The vote split is seen holding at 11-1, with Gov. Stephen Miran again dissenting for a 25-basis-point cut, the global head of markets strategy says. The two-year Treasury yield is up 2.3 basis points to 3.798% and the 10-year yield is 1.4 basis points higher at 4.323%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0528 GMT - Prolonged Middle East uncertainty could lead to a steeper JGB yield curve, given the limited pool of stable buyers in the super-long sector, two strategists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities say in a research report. Also, this could diminish BOJ rate-increase expectations and intensify worries about an economic growth slowdown in Japan, as inflation risk premium fades, the strategists say. "We expect the inflation risk premium currently priced into the belly of the curve to gradually dissipate as concerns about downside risks to economic growth start to overtake those about upside risks to inflation," the strategists say. Hence, they suggest sticking with long positions in five-year JGBs. Five-year JGB yield is up 2 bps at 1.850%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 27, 2026 02:48 ET (06:48 GMT)
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