Big Tech Earnings, Fed Rates, Iran. How to Navigate a Huge Week for the Stock Market. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones18:53

There are big weeks for the stock market, and then there's this one. The stock market faces possibly its most important week of 2026 so far.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq head into it at record highs after a blistering tech-driven rally on Friday. That raises the already sky-high stakes.

Optimism around artificial intelligence is very much back, and the chips sector is on a generational winning streak. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, or SOX, has risen for 18 consecutive days, up around 50% over that time. Intel, Nvidia, and AMD all hit record highs.

Five of the largest tech companies that make up the Magnificent Seven megacap stocks, will report earnings against that backdrop -- Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Apple. That formidable five make up around a quarter of the S&P 500's market value.

If that wasn't enough, the Federal Reserve will make its latest interest-rate decision Wednesday and is expected to hold rates steady. Chair Jerome Powell will also give what's likely to be his last press conference in charge of the central bank. The Senate Banking Committee is due to vote on advancing the confirmation of his successor Kevin Warsh that day, too.

The Fed's preferred inflation metric, the PCE index, will be released Thursday.

That's a long list of market-moving catalysts and doesn't even include any potential geopolitical developments in the Iran war and the key Strait of Hormuz, a major trade route for the world's oil.

If investors had to pick one to focus on, it should probably be Big Tech earnings. The Mag 7 group has played an influential part in the stock market's recent rally -- the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is up 15% in April, compared with the S&P 500's 10%.

Cloud growth and capex spending will be the areas to watch, the feel-good factor around AI is on the line.

As almost two months of the Iran war have shown, Trump's actions can shift sentiment, but in recent weeks fundamentals have proved bigger drivers and this vital week should show tech remains king as a market mover.

-- Callum Keown

Barron's Live: Join Barron's Editor in Chief Ben Levisohn and Senior Managing Editor Lauren Rublin today at noon when they talk to Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, about the Federal Reserve, his bond-market outlook, and investment opportunities in fixed income. Sign up here.

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Warsh's Nomination as Fed Chair Clears Last Major Obstacle

The last major obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair has been removed, with holdout Sen. Thom Tillis ending his threat to block it. That puts President Donald Trump's nominee on a tight track to take over the central bank before current chair Jerome Powell's term expires May 15.

   -- Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, told NBC's Meet the Press that he 
      will support Warsh's confirmation, ending the standoff that had 
      threatened to stall the nomination in the Senate Banking Committee. The 
      committee is scheduled to vote Wednesday on advancing Warsh to a full 
      Senate floor vote. 
 
   -- The logjam broke Friday, when U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said her office 
      was dropping the criminal probe and handing the matter to the Fed's own 
      inspector general, which has been investigating cost overruns from the 
      Fed's multibillion-dollar Washington headquarters renovation since last 
      July. 
 
   -- Tillis said Sunday he received assurances from the Justice Department 
      that the criminal investigation wouldn't be reopened unless the inspector 
      general issues a criminal referral. He called Warsh, a former Fed 
      governor, an outstanding nominee and said it's time for the Fed to move 
      beyond the distraction. 
 
   -- The Fed will get another inflation reading this week from the personal 
      consumption expenditures price index on Thursday. The consumer price 
      index rose 3.3% in March from a year ago, and the PCE price index is 
      expected to show a similar jump. 

What's Next: The Fed's next interest-rate decision also comes this week, and potentially Powell's last press conference as Fed chair. Policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged, but more important are clues about their willingness to look past rising inflation, mostly from energy prices.

-- Nicole Goodkind and Dan Lam

Elon Musk's SpaceX Unveiled Its IPO Secret Weapon

Ahead of its plans for the largest IPO ever, Elon Musk SpaceX revealed what could be that offering's secret weapon: the third-generation Starship designed to bring it all the capabilities it needs to take astronauts to the moon and ultimately to Mars. It could be tested as early as May.

   -- A lot already has been made of SpaceX's satellite-based Wi-Fi broadband 
      product, Starlink, and the potential for data centers in space. But its 
      ace in the hole is this reusable rocket, standing 408 feet tall. The 
      booster has 33 rocket engines, each producing more than 8,000 tons of 
      thrust. 
 
   -- Starship aims to cut the cost of reaching low Earth orbit by as much as 
      90% compared with SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, which cut the cost by roughly 
      95% compared with the Space Shuttle. Lower costs enabled SpaceX to 
      develop Starlink and will enable AI data centers in space. 
 
   -- There have been 11 Starship tests. Some of these ended in an explosion -- 
      what SpaceX calls "rapid unscheduled disassembly." There have been 
      failures with the booster system, too. But progress is being made. SpaceX 
      caught the booster with giant mechanical arms during test 5. 
 
   -- SpaceX already filed confidential paperwork for its IPO and the details 
      are starting to leak out. For example, Starlink generated Ebitda profit 
      margins of 63% on $11.4 billion in revenue, serving some nine million 
      customers by year's end. SpaceX hasn't responded to requests for comment. 

What's Next: Lower costs have morphed SpaceX into a telecom company delivering internet to millions with plans to deliver data directly to cellphones from space. The 12th Starship test is likely to happen in late May, which should be about the time SpaceX's IPO registration becomes public and its roadshow begins.

-- Al Root

Prediction Market Faces Scrutiny After Bet on Maduro's Downfall

The U.S. Army sergeant charged with insider trading on the prediction market site Polymarket last week was likely in violation of multiple rules before the transactions were ever made. The international prediction market it runs where the trades were allegedly placed is illegal in the U.S.

   -- Trades around war are also banned on U.S. marketplaces regulated by the 
      Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Justice Department accused 
      Gannon Van Dyke of using a virtual private network, or VPN, to make it 
      look to Polymarket like he was logging onto the site from a foreign 
      country. 
 
   -- Van Dyke was charged with wire fraud and unlawful use of government 
      information for personal gain in the scheme, which prosecutors said 
      generated $400,000 in a bet on the downfall of former Venezuelan 
      President Nicolás Maduro. Polymarket is subject to 
      know-your-customer rules, former CFTC regulators told Barron's. 
 
   -- "Polymarket cooperated with our investigation," a spokesperson for the 
      CFTC said in a statement to Barron's. Polymarket didn't respond to a 
      request for comment. The firm has a data sharing partnership with Dow 
      Jones, the publisher of Barron's. 
 
   -- Polymarket said on X that it referred the matter to the DOJ when it 
      identified a user trading on classified government information and said 
      insider trading has no place on the platform. Jeff Le Riche, an ex-CFTC 
      lawyer, pointed to potential liability under the Commodity Exchange Act. 

What's Next: The CFTC has a history of enforcement actions against offshore operators that illegally allow U.S. customers on their platforms. In 2024, the CFTC took action against a cryptocurrency exchange called KuCoin for inadequate know-your-customer measures.

-- Nick Devor

Michael Jackson Biopic Notches New Record for Hollywood

Lionsgate's Michael, a two-hour biopic about how Michael Jackson became the King of Pop, danced its way to the top of the domestic box office, selling an estimated $97 million of tickets despite critics' mixed reviews. The movie now ranks as the highest-grossing biopic opening of all time.

   -- Michael, starring Jackson's nephew Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo as 
      Joe Jackson, also notched the second-biggest domestic opening of 2026. 
      Universal Pictures and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossed 
      $131.7 million in its opening weekend earlier this month, according to 
      Comscore. 
 
   -- Michael sold another $120.4 million of tickets internationally, for 
      projected $217.4 million worldwide sales through Sunday, including $24.4 
      million in IMAX screens. Super Mario Galaxy sold another $21.2 million 
      domestically, bringing its worldwide total to $831.5 million since 
      opening April 1. 
 
   -- Michael helped boost Hollywood's weekend domestic box office to an 
      estimated $152.5 million. So far this year, domestic ticket sales of 
      $2.57 billion are 14.2% above this point in 2025, Comscore's head of 
      marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian said. 
 
   -- Members of the Writers Guild of America West and the Writers Guild of 
      America East unions voted overwhelmingly to ratify their new four-year 
      contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. 
      Dergarabedian said previous writers' strikes have profoundly hampered 
      production schedules and film releases. 

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

April 27, 2026 06:53 ET (10:53 GMT)

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