Is It Too Late To Consider Howmet Aerospace (HWM) After Its 77% One Year Rally?

Simply Wall St.04-28 09:11

Investors may be wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if most of the easy gains are already behind it. The stock closed at US$241.70, with a 5.4% ...

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The stock closed at US$241.70, with a 5.4% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-hwm/howmet-aerospace/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-howmet-aerospace-hwm-after-its-77\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider Howmet Aerospace (HWM) After Its 77% One Year Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider Howmet Aerospace (HWM) After Its 77% One Year Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-28 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-hwm/howmet-aerospace/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-howmet-aerospace-hwm-after-its-77><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors may be wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if most of the easy gains are already behind it. The stock closed at US$241.70, with a 5.4% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-hwm/howmet-aerospace/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-howmet-aerospace-hwm-after-its-77\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2764262908.HKD","symbol_name":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-hwm/howmet-aerospace/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-howmet-aerospace-hwm-after-its-77","article_id":"2630476673","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/3021000-choice1-main-header/1585186644732"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-hwm/howmet-aerospace/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-howmet-aerospace-hwm-after-its-77","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630476673","pubTimestamp":1777338684,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investors may be wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if most of the easy gains are already behind it.\nThe stock closed at US$241.70, with a 5.4% decline over the last 7 days, a 6.1% gain over 30 days, a 14.2% gain year to date, and a 77.7% gain over 1 year. It has also delivered a very large 3 year return and an even higher 5 year return, which puts recent moves into context.\nRecent attention on Howmet Aerospace has focused on its role...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2764262908.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","LU2999663052.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A4P\" (SGD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","LU0174119429.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2764263203.CNY":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (CNYHDG) ACC","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU2462591350.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HWM":"Howmet Aerospace Inc.","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc"},"translate_title":"在Howmet Aerospace(HWM)一年上涨77%之后，现在考虑它是否为时已晚？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"HWM":1.5},"content_text":"Investors may be wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if most of the easy gains are already behind it. The stock closed at US$241.70, with a 5.4% decline over the last 7 days, a 6.1% gain over 30 days, a 14.2% gain year to date, and a 77.7% gain over 1 year. It has also delivered a very large 3 year return and an even higher 5 year return, which puts recent moves into context. Recent attention on Howmet Aerospace has focused on its role within the capital goods space, as investors reassess companies exposed to aerospace and related demand cycles. This backdrop provides useful context for the share price swings seen over the past month and the strong multi year performance. Despite that track record, Howmet Aerospace currently scores 0 out of 6 on a valuation basis. The key question is how different valuation approaches interpret this price, and whether a deeper, more holistic framework later in the article gives you a clearer view of what the stock might be worth.  Howmet Aerospace scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Howmet Aerospace Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value. It is essentially asking what future cash the business could generate for shareholders in today’s dollars. For Howmet Aerospace, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.52b. Analyst inputs and extrapolated figures extend out 10 years, with projected free cash flow of $2.65b in 2029 and further projections continuing through 2035. Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond the analyst horizon to build a full cash flow curve. When those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated fair value of about $158.76 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $241.70, this implies the stock is around 52.2% above the model’s estimate of intrinsic value, so the DCF view is that the shares look expensive on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Howmet Aerospace may be overvalued by 52.2%. Discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. HWM Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Howmet Aerospace. Approach 2: Howmet Aerospace Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that business is currently generating. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and look for a lower P/E when growth expectations are more modest or risks are higher. Howmet Aerospace is trading on a P/E of 64.31x. That is above the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/E of 35.94x, and also above the peer average of 24.70x provided here. On simple comparisons, the stock is priced at a richer multiple than many sector peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Howmet Aerospace is 35.56x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might reasonably be given the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk characteristics. Because it adjusts for these factors, the Fair Ratio can offer a more tailored reference point than a broad industry or peer average. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 35.56x with the current P/E of 64.31x suggests the shares are trading above this estimate of a fair earnings multiple. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:HWM P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Howmet Aerospace Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach a clear story about Howmet Aerospace to the numbers you care about, linking your view of future revenue, earnings and margins to a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are short, structured viewpoints that connect what you think is happening in the business to a financial forecast, then to a Fair Value estimate that updates automatically when new information such as earnings, guidance, buybacks or news is added to the platform. Using Howmet Aerospace as an example, one investor might pick a bullish Narrative that assumes revenue growth of about 15.2% a year, a profit margin of roughly 22.3%, earnings of about US$2.8b and a Fair Value near US$315. Another might align with a more cautious Narrative that uses lower growth assumptions, a Fair Value of about US$214.92 and a different future P/E. By comparing those Fair Values with the current share price, each investor can decide whether the stock looks expensive or cheap relative to their own story. For Howmet Aerospace, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Howmet Aerospace Narratives: Think of these as two clear stories sitting behind the numbers you have already seen. One leans bullish and the other more cautious, so you can decide which feels closer to your own expectations before you commit to any detailed work. 🐂 Howmet Aerospace Bull Case Fair Value: US$315.00 per share Implied discount to this Fair Value at the recent US$241.70 share price: about 23.3%. Revenue growth assumption: 15.16% a year.  Backlog of commercial aircraft orders and focus on lighter, higher performance materials feed into higher content per aircraft and support the revenue and margin story. Greater mix of higher margin aftermarket spares, industrial gas turbines and automation spending is expected to support stronger cash generation and higher returns. For this view to hold, the Narrative assumes revenue of US$12.6b, earnings of US$2.8b and a 54.7x P/E around 2029, which is above the current US Aerospace & Defense industry P/E.  🐻 Howmet Aerospace Bear Case Fair Value: US$233.70 per share Implied premium to this Fair Value at the recent US$241.70 share price: about 3.4%. Revenue growth assumption: 10.38% a year.  Record commercial aircraft backlogs, newer fuel efficient fleets and steady defense spending support multi year demand for Howmet Aerospace components. Capacity expansions, automation and product mix changes are expected to support higher productivity and net margins, but also increase sensitivity to swings in demand from major OEM customers. The Narrative anchors on a consensus style target of about US$233.70 that assumes earnings of US$2.2b, revenue of US$10.3b and a 45.8x P/E around 2028 using a 7.7% discount rate.  If you want to keep building your own view using these Narratives as starting points rather than endpoints, the Community section on Simply Wall St lets you compare different Fair Values, risks and growth paths side by side so you can see exactly which assumptions you are signing up for. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Howmet Aerospace on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for Howmet Aerospace? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:HWM 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Howmet Aerospace might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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