Gold holds steady before Fed decision; rally expected to resume despite Iran tensions

Kitco04-27 13:58

Gold prices were muted on Monday as investors braced for a key Federal Reserve rate decision later in the week and considered the impact of rising oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions.A ...

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gold is seen averaging $4,916/oz and silver $78/oz in 2026.Oil jumped nearly 3% on Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and ongoing Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions tightened global supplies. Receding hopes of a peace deal after Axios report and Iran-related actions (Hormuz closure, canceled envoy trip) weigh on markets.Investors focus on central bank meetings—BOJ, ECB, Fed—expecting rates to be held steady.Nickel jumped to a nearly two-year high on Monday amid concerns over supply from top producer Indonesia and a shortage of sulphur used in production.Analysts cut 2026 platinum and palladium forecasts as speculative momentum fades and Middle East risks threaten growth and the auto sector, boosting volatility. After a 127% jump in 2025 and a record $2,918.80/oz peak in January amid tight supply and gold’s rally, spot platinum is down 15% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran two months ago. Federal Reserve officials meet in Washington this week in what could be Jerome Powell’s final session as Fed chair, with high energy costs and a stalled Iran war likely to prolong uncertainty over the economic and policy outlook.Spot gold modestly declined 0.23% to $4,699.60 an ounce by 09:00 ET (1:00 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.56% to $4,715.8 an ounce.Gold is viewed as an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates boost yield-bearing assets, and a stronger dollar raises bullion's cost for overseas buyers.CME FedWatch: Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75CME FedWatch April no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 100% now from 95.7% on March 27, 2026.Fed Rate ProbabilityAs of April 10, 2026As of TodayCME FedWatch latest Fed rate probability points at no rate cut until mid-2027. Technical Analysis Perspective:Gold / US Dollar:Spot gold sits in a potential reversal band between 4,640 and 4,530.Price could trade narrowly between 4,775–4,655 for days to weeks before a directional breakout.Gold has been coiling since early April and will likely continue until a clear break above 4,775 or below 4,655.Expect range-bound action for the time being.Gold daily chart:Gold/Silver Ratio:The gold–silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold (gold ÷ silver), a key relative-value gauge.The ratio is trading between 56–69, inside March’s monthly band, suggesting both metals remain range-bound ahead of a possible sell-off.A rising ratio generally signals silver underperforming gold.Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly chart:Gold/Silver Ratio vs US Interest Rate Monthly chart:US interest rates and the gold–silver ratio typically move inversely.Lower rates tend to lift the ratio.Higher rates tend to depress the ratio.Stable rates usually keep the ratio range bound.Gold Feb – April Price Action Seasonality Monthly Chart:Historically since 2006, gold often weakens from February through April, with 2011, 2024 and 2025 as exceptions.A significant March sell-off points to the possibility of further weakness into April 2026.The chart’s blue shading marks February–April for each year from 2006–2026.Monitor seasonal patterns as April 2026 unfolds.Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices. He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2630639064","isCrawlerRequest":true}