By Mackenzie Tatananni
Eli Lilly is looking past the current GLP-1 race to a new class of treatments that could finally break its deadlock with Novo Nordisk. Wall Street should be paying attention.
Analysts are trying to put the latest Foundayo prescription numbers into perspective, as concerns remain that Lilly's push for market share hasn't put it solidly ahead of Novo. However, eloralintide -- a novel amylin candidate -- could be the catalyst that finally tips the scales.
Eloralintide has been touted as the next big thing after the current generation of GLP-1 medications. It mimics a hormone secreted alongside insulin that signals fullness and slows gastric emptying.
Crucially, eloralintide provides an alternative for patients who struggle to tolerate GLP-1 side effects or have reached a plateau with existing treatment. Early data show it is highly effective as a standalone treatment.
To maximize results, Lilly is investigating pairing it with tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound. Early data suggest this combined treatment could deliver superior weight loss with more tolerable side effects, creating a competitive gap that will be difficult for rivals like Novo to close.
Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger expects Lilly to advance a combination treatment into Phase 3 trials in the second half of the year. "This could be a long-term game changer if it yields a better tolerability profile than injectable Zepbound and Wegovy," Risinger wrote.
And Lilly needs the edge. Novo's head start in the market remains a challenge, and Risinger himself trimmed his estimates on Monday, citing concerns that oral Wegovy could limit Foundayo's uptake in the U.S.
Data released Friday didn't provide much clarity, with many cautioning it was too early to determine a winner. Mizuho analyst Jared Holz noted in a weekend email to clients that Foundayo won't impact Lilly's first-quarter results, seeing as the pill launched in early April.
"Clearly the Street wants to get color on the launch beyond the weekly prescription data that is likely not capturing patients in full," Holz wrote. Still, it's difficult "not to be impressed" by Novo, which benefits from brand continuity as Lilly markets its pill under a completely new name.
Oral Wegovy has maintained robust demand since its launch nearly four months ago. Citi analyst Graham Parry noted that total prescriptions climbed to 124,608 in its 15th week on the market, up from 113,354 in the prior week.
Other challenges are looming. Risinger expects a dip in international Mounjaro sales following aggressive price cuts in China, while "most-favored-nation" pricing agreements in the U.S threaten to drag down sales for other key drugs.
However, the analyst believes shares could rise 20% from current levels, fueled by expanding Medicare coverage for Zepbound and Foundayo. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services last month detailed a pilot program aiming to increase access to certain weight-loss drugs.
Starting in July, eligible Medicare beneficiaries can access a so-called bridge to the model, which caps the cost of GLP-1 medications at $50 a month. Morgan Stanley highlighted the shift earlier this month, calling it a landmark "opening of the U.S. Medicare obesity channel."
Lilly is set to report first-quarter earnings on Thursday.
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 27, 2026 09:48 ET (13:48 GMT)
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