These two countries are the most likely to leave OPEC's orbit next

MW These two countries are the most likely to leave OPEC's orbit next

By Claudia Assis

The U.A.E. was the 'most likely' candidate to leave the oil cartel, but experts point to other countries that have reason to follow

Kazakhstan has also chafed under OPEC quotas.

The United Arab Emirates' decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a blow to the oil cartel. While few in the energy world expect OPEC to collapse in the near term, experts say two other key petroleum-producing countries may soon start creeping toward the door.

Kazakhstan and perhaps Iraq are seen as the two countries most likely to follow the U.A.E. and leave the oil bloc's sphere. Both Kazakhstan, a member of the broader OPEC+ alliance, and Iraq, a member of OPEC, have spare crude-production capacity that could incentivize them to leave OPEC production quotas behind. Iraqi officials, however, poured cold water on the idea on Tuesday and said the country had no plans to depart the organization, Reuters reported.

For its part, Kazakhstan not only has the excess capacity to go past OPEC's oil production limits, it has also been chafing under its OPEC quota - much like the U.A.E., which announced its decision on Tuesday.

Kazakhstan, however, does not have the magnitude of excess capacity that the U.A.E. has to produce more oil. Kazakhstan's OPEC quota for May is 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, and estimates suggest the country can produce only a little beyond that level. Its largest oil field, Tengiz, is operated through a joint venture that is 50% owned by Chevron $(CVX)$ and 25% by Exxon Mobil (XOM). A Kazakh company and Russia's Lukoil own the rest.

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Under OPEC's quotas, the U.A.E. was required to keep production at around 3.5 million barrels a day in May. Its production capacity likely is between 4.7 million and 4.8 million barrels a day, according to most estimates.

The U.A.E. has been unhappy with its OPEC production quotas for many years. It has also jockeyed with Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in OPEC, for regional clout.

"The U.A.E. was the most likely candidate [to leave OPEC] for quite a long time," said Antoine Halff, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.

Kazakhstan may not be ready to take that step just yet, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth.

Smaller producers benefit from participating in a less volatile crude market that allows them to enjoy a more consistent revenue stream.

"The group is often thought of as the Fed of the oil market," Babin said. And because Saudi Arabia has much more spare production capacity, the U.A.E.'s departure may only moderately hinder the bloc's effectiveness. The U.A.E. will be able to bring more capacity on line whenever it can, but it's not the end of OPEC, Babin said.

Halff said that it might be more worthwhile for Kazakhstan to stay in the organization. With the U.A.E. gone, for example, Kazakhstan's influence and clout within the bloc could increase.

The world needs OPEC oil, he said, but challenges remain for the cartel. The organization has survived wars between its member countries, but the current conflict is unprecedented in its scope, as Iran has attacked its fellow members' energy infrastructure multiple times.

"The death of OPEC has been announced many times, and it has survived," Halff said.

That doesn't mean that the U.A.E.'s departure - or any additional departures - wouldn't be consequential.

Near-term effects may be "muted given ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical uncertainty," analysts at energy research firm Rystad Eneergy said in a note. But a "structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices."

-Claudia Assis

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April 28, 2026 16:41 ET (20:41 GMT)

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