UAE Quits OPEC Cartel. Why Oil Prices Are Surging. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones03:31

By Adam Clark, George Glover and Anita Hamilton

Oil prices settled higher Tuesday as markets remained skeptical that the U.S. will agree to a new Iranian proposal to end the war.

Investors were also reacting to the United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC. The Gulf country said in a statement that it would exit the cartel effective May 1, adding that the decision wouldn't alter its "commitment to global market stability," its state-run news agency WAM reported.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, settled 2.7% higher at $104.40 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures jumped 3.7% to $99.93. WTI hasn't settled above $100 a barrel since Apr. 7.

Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social that "Iran has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse.'" He also referenced Iran's offer to stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war and the end of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. However, he did not say what he had decided.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday that the President was discussing the offer with his national security team. Iran's reported unwillingness to address its nuclear program is likely to be an obstacle as Trump has said it can't have a nuclear weapon.

"Iran's proposed interim cease-fire deal...has been met with little enthusiasm in Washington, according to the latest reports. That is pushing markets back into a higher-uncertainty regime, with oil prices staying well-supported," wrote ING analyst Francesco Pesole in a research note.

Meanwhile, some insurers are requiring ships to use an Iran-approved route through the Strait of Hormuz as a condition of getting war-risk coverage, according to insurance broker Marsh.

Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday raised their forecast for fourth-quarter Brent prices to $90 a barrel from $80, and WTI prices to $83 a barrel from $75, citing more extended disruption to oil supplies.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com, George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com and Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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April 28, 2026 15:31 ET (19:31 GMT)

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