Shares of Royal Caribbean bounced sharply Thursday, after the cruise operator beat first-quarter profit expectations and said cruise demand had returned to levels seen before the Iran conflict began.
The demand recovery helped overshadow a downbeat earnings outlook for the current quarter and lowered profit guidance for the full year, as demand fell in the weeks following the start of the conflict. That weakness was seen in the company's high-yielding Mediterranean cruises, as the conflict led to increased travel costs - with airlines reducing the number of flights - and disrupted travel plans.
Worries about the demand drop had sent Royal Caribbean's stock $(RCL)$ tumbling 18.3% from the start of the conflict through Wednesday, when the stock closed at the lowest price since Dec. 9.
But after the earnings report Thursday, the stock surged 8.4% in recent morning trading. That also helped provide a lift to shares of Royal's peers, as Carnival's stock $(CCL)$ rose 5.8%, Viking Holdings Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings shares $(NCLH)$ tacked on 3%.
"Bookings moderated in March and early April for Mediterranean and West Coast of Mexico itineraries due to geopolitical developments," Royal Caribbean said in a statement. "However, they have now recovered and are currently running at a higher pace than the same time last year."
Despite the slowing in demand, the company said it still had a record Wave booking season, which is when cruise promotions peak during the first quarter. The company said its current booked position is at record prices.
As BNP Paribas analyst Xian Siew put it, investor expectations had "come down meaningfully" since the last earnings report, given higher fuel prices and worries about profitability. While there was some slowdown, the results were "not worse" than what investors feared, so it they should be "good enough" to help the stock.
For the quarter to March 31, adjusted earnings per share rose to $3.60 from $2.71 a year ago, and beat the average analyst estimate compiled by FactSet of $3.20.
Total revenue grew 11.3% to $4.45 billion, but that came in a bit shy of the FactSet consensus of $4.46 billion. That included a 10.1% increase in passenger ticket revenue to $3.02 billion and a 14% jump in onboard and other revenue to $1.43 billion.
Looking ahead, the company expects second-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.83 to $3.93, which is below the FactSet consensus of $4.02, and the full-year guidance range was cut to $17.10 to $17.50 from $17.70 to $18.10.
The company explained that the factors that hurt demand for Mediterranean cruises mainly affect the second and third quarters, when those cruises see the most deployments.
Despite Thursday's gains, Royal Caribbean's stock has still lost 2.2% in 2026, while shares of rival Carnival have dropped 12.6%, Norwegian's stock has slid 18.3%. The S&P 500 index SPX has gained 4.4% this year.
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