Chart of the Week: Headwinds for Aussie banks point to an imminent slowdown

Morning Star AU04-30

This week’s chart comes from Nathan Zaia and Oriana Pham with insights from the latest industry pulse for Australian Banks.Tougher conditions ahead but banks stand on solid groundBank shares rallied ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2631917506?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-04-30 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2631917506","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Chart of the Week: Headwinds for Aussie banks point to an imminent slowdown","media":"Morning Star AU","content":"<div>\n<p>This week’s chart comes from Nathan Zaia and Oriana Pham with insights from the latest industry pulse for Australian Banks.Tougher conditions ahead but banks stand on solid groundBank shares rallied ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/chart-week-headwinds-aussie-banks-point-an-imminent-slowdown\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"morningstar_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chart of the Week: Headwinds for Aussie banks point to an imminent slowdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChart of the Week: Headwinds for Aussie banks point to an imminent slowdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-30 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/chart-week-headwinds-aussie-banks-point-an-imminent-slowdown><strong>Morning Star AU</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week’s chart comes from Nathan Zaia and Oriana Pham with insights from the latest industry pulse for Australian Banks.Tougher conditions ahead but banks stand on solid groundBank shares rallied ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/chart-week-headwinds-aussie-banks-point-an-imminent-slowdown\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2264538146.SGD","symbol_name":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/chart-week-headwinds-aussie-banks-point-an-imminent-slowdown","article_id":"2631917506","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/chart-week-headwinds-aussie-banks-point-an-imminent-slowdown","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631917506","pubTimestamp":1777478400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"This week’s chart comes from Nathan Zaia and Oriana Pham with insights from the latest industry pulse for Australian Banks.Tougher conditions ahead but banks stand on solid groundBank shares rallied o","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"morningstar.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","GTLS":"查特工业","LU2048586759.USD":"ALLIANZ SMART ENERGY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE0031619046.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2355687059.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL IMPACT  \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4161":"工业机械","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE00B19Z4B17.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7SZL793.SGD":"Legg Mason Royce - US Small Cap Opportunity A Acc SGD-H","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00B66KJ199.SGD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY  \" A\" (SGD) ACC"},"translate_title":"本周图表：澳大利亚银行面临的阻力表明经济放缓迫在眉睫","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GTLS":1.5},"content_text":"This week’s chart comes from Nathan Zaia and Oriana Pham with insights from the latest industry pulse for Australian Banks.Tougher conditions ahead but banks stand on solid groundBank shares rallied on the most recent results, taking another leg up from already stretched valuations. Net interest margins held up, allowing strong credit growth and disciplined expense management to flow through to mid-single-digit profit growth. Interest rate increases to combat inflation could boost margins in the short term, but they pose downside risks to credit growth and loan losses into fiscal 2027.Disruptions to supply chains and input costs due to the war could also lead to more bankruptcies and may even lead to higher unemployment. Artificial intelligence-related job losses have not yet moved the needle on overall employment, but they could contribute to bank loan losses returning to more normalised levels in the medium term.Higher cash rates to combat inflation will likely slow credit growthCredit growth remains strong, with total growth of 7.7% on an annualised basis in the three months to February 2026. It is well-supported by public investment, population growth, and solid house prices. With the cash rate now moving higher and the economic outlook more fragile, there could be a downside to our medium-term growth forecast of 4%–5% per year in the near term. New home loan commitments are expected to remain on a positive trajectory, supported by population growth and rising house prices. But a regulatory crackdown on high debt/income loans is likely to take some heat out of the investor-lending market. The government’s proposal to change the 50% discount on capital gains is also likely to dampen demand. Investor loans increased 9.2% in the 12 months to February 2026, compared with 6.1% for owner-occupiers. We expect refinancing activity to rise as rates move higher, as borrowers look for ways to combat rising expenses being encountered on multiple fronts.Changes to capital gains discounts for investors are being floated to help with housing affordability, with reductions to immigration being encouraged by rival political parties - both could place downward pressure on house prices and, by extension, credit demand.Major bank multiples hard to justify as economic outlook darkensThe valuation divergence between Commonwealth Bank and its peers has narrowed modestly, but in our view, it is still unjustifiably wide. If ANZ Bank can deliver similar earnings growth, but on a cheaper P/E, we expect its discount to peers to shrink.While no longer cheap, ANZ Group offers the most relative value among major bank peers, with improving operating efficiency. Commonwealth Bank is most expensive on a forward P/E of 25 times, and a fully franked dividend yield around 3.1%.The full report is available to Morningstar Investor subscribers and trialists.Get Morningstar insights in your inbox","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2631917506","isCrawlerRequest":true}