Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) Is Up 7.0% After Record EBITDA And Excelsior Progress Is The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St.05-02

In late April 2026, Nickel Industries Limited reported its March quarter results, delivering record adjusted EBITDA of US$135.6 million, supported by a higher Indonesian production quota, accelerated ...

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Alongside this financial performance, the company highlighted a lost time injury frequency rate of 0.00, expanded conservation efforts over about 197 hectares of primary forest at Hengjaya, and a stronger liquidity position through refinancing US$450 million of unsecured loan facilities. We will now examine how this jump in quarterly adjusted EBITDA and progress at the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project affect Nickel Industries’ investment narrative. Explore 26 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.AdvertisementNickel Industries Investment Narrative RecapTo own Nickel Industries, you need to believe the company can turn its Indonesian-focused growth pipeline, especially ENC, into sustainable cash generation while managing leverage and regulatory risk. The latest record quarterly adjusted EBITDA helps near term, but the key catalyst remains successful ENC commissioning and ramp up, while the biggest risk is still execution and funding across a heavy capex program. This quarter’s performance does not remove those risks, but it does slightly ease liquidity concerns. The refinancing of US$450 million in unsecured loan facilities is the announcement that most directly connects to this earnings jump. It supports the ENC ramp up and broader project pipeline by extending liquidity and smoothing out near term funding pressure. For investors focused on the ENC catalyst and the company’s sizeable upcoming payments, this refinancing sits alongside stronger quarterly EBITDA as part of the same question: can Nickel Industries fund growth without eroding shareholder value? But set against this stronger quarter, investors should still be aware of how quickly funding needs and Indonesian regulatory changes could... Read the full narrative on Nickel Industries (it's free!)Nickel Industries' narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $498.8 million earnings by 2029. This requires 20.5% yearly revenue growth and a $555.9 million earnings increase from -$57.1 million today.Uncover how Nickel Industries' forecasts yield a A$1.20 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesASX:NIC 1-Year Stock Price Chart Before this update, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could reach about US$3.6 billion and earnings around US$793.1 million by 2029, which is a far more upbeat view than consensus. When you set that against the ENC ramp up risk and the recent EBITDA jump, you can see how expectations might shift in very different directions as new information comes through.Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Nickel Industries - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!Decide For YourselfDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your Nickel Industries research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.Our free Nickel Industries research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nickel Industries' overall financial health at a glance.Contemplating Other Strategies?Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:Outshine the giants: these 16 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.The future of work is here. Discover the 34 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.AI is about to change healthcare. These 10 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Nickel Industries might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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