AGS WEEK AHEAD: Weather, Iran War Support Grains; Brazil Ethanol Move Boosts Sugar

Dow Jones05-04
 

By Giulia Petroni

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of May 4-8 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive for agricultural markets, with elevated energy prices linked to the Iran war feeding inflation expectations, while bullish fund positioning continues to support grain and oilseed prices. However, this strength is expected to become more fragile into late May and early June as seasonal trends turn decisively negative, according to Peak Trading Research.

In the U.S., weather is a key driver, with persistent wet and cold conditions across the Midwest delaying corn and soybean planting, while drought in parts of the Great Plains continues to constrain winter wheat yield potential, analysts at Peak Trading said. Near-term support is therefore coming from planting delays, though longer-term supply risks remain mixed.

Attention is also shifting to key upcoming catalysts, including May WASDE report and the Trump-Xi summit, both of which could shape trade expectations and near-term sentiment.

Chicago wheat futures were flat at $6.38 a bushel in European mid-morning trading on Monday, while corn was up 0.3% to $4.82 a bushel. Soybean prices gained 0.6% to $12.11 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Sugar prices climbed last week after Brazil signaled plans to raise the ethanol blend in gasoline, making sugarcane more attractive for fuel than for sweetener. As cane can be processed into either sugar or ethanol, a higher fuel mandate typically diverts supply away from sugar output, tightening the market.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the country is set to lift the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30% in the coming days, while also indicating the biodiesel mix would rise to 16% from 15%, according to a Reuters report.

ICE Futures U.S., a division of the Intercontinental Exchange which lists cocoa, coffee, and sugar futures, is closed on Monday due to a bank holiday.

 

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 04, 2026 04:37 ET (08:37 GMT)

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