Is Agree Realty (ADC) Price Fair After Steady Returns And Shifting REIT Sentiment

Simply Wall St.05-07

If you are wondering whether Agree Realty stock at around US$76.50 offers good value today, this breakdown will help you judge whether the current price lines up with the underlying fundamentals. ...

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Recent returns have been steady, with the stock showing 0.2% over the past week, 1.3% over the last month, 6.1% year to date, 4.7% over 1 year, 29.8% over 3 years and 40.3% over 5 years. Recent news coverage has centered on Agree Realty in the context of broader real estate market sentiment and income focused investing. This can influence how investors think about risk and reliability for this type of stock. This backdrop is important for interpreting how the share price reacts when interest rates, inflation expectations or sector preferences shift. Agree Realty currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6. Next you will see how traditional methods like discounted cash flow and multiples compare, followed by a more complete way to think about value toward the end of the article.  Agree Realty scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Agree Realty Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting its future adjusted funds from operations and discounting those cash flows back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in dollars right now. For Agree Realty, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on adjusted funds from operations. The latest twelve months free cash flow is $482.804 million. Analysts provide explicit estimates for several years, and Simply Wall St extrapolates further, with projected free cash flow of $934.3 million in 2030 and a series of annual projections in between. Putting all of those discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of $169.14 per share, compared with a current share price around $76.50. On this basis, the model implies that Agree Realty is 54.8% undervalued according to this DCF framework. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Agree Realty is undervalued by 54.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 44 more high quality undervalued stocks. ADC Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Agree Realty. Approach 2: Agree Realty Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher P/E can reflect stronger growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can reflect weaker growth expectations or higher perceived risk. What counts as a “normal” P/E therefore depends on both the outlook and the uncertainty investors see around those earnings. Agree Realty currently trades on a P/E of 43.37x. This sits above the Retail REITs industry average of 24.27x and a peer average of 22.59x. On simple comparisons, the stock looks expensive relative to these benchmarks, but those yardsticks do not adjust for the specific growth profile, margins or risk of Agree Realty. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is designed to handle that. It estimates what a P/E might be for this specific company given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. Agree Realty’s Fair Ratio is 37.95x, which is below the current P/E of 43.37x. That gap suggests the stock is trading above what this framework indicates as a fair P/E. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:ADC P/E Ratio as at May 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Agree Realty Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Think of a Narrative as your own clear story for Agree Realty that links what you believe about its tenants, acquisitions, funding and risks to a set of numbers for future revenue, earnings and margins. This then flows through to a fair value that you can compare with the current price on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Narratives are updated automatically when new news or earnings arrive. This means two investors can look at the same data and reach different fair values. For example, one investor may lean toward the higher analyst case with earnings of US$384.6m by 2029 and a P/E of 48.9x, while another may anchor on the lower earnings expectation of US$259.5m and a more cautious view on tenant or acquisition risk. Do you think there's more to the story for Agree Realty? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:ADC 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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