By Rebecca Ungarino and Nick Devor
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has likened prediction markets to gambling, and the company is urging caution around how its 320,000 employees use them. New internal guidelines stop short of a ban, though, potentially allowing employees to trade on markets involving the company itself.
The guidance, circulated to staff this spring, emphasizes that "you must be cautious" when using prediction markets and warns against insider trading. It doesn't require employees to pre-clear prediction market trading activity with the firm.
JPMorgan has advised employees to "limit your participation in prediction markets involving JPMorgan Chase" as "others could perceive this as a misuse of information," according to a copy of the guidance viewed by Barron's.
The guidance from JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, is notable given how little is publicly known about companies' prediction-market policies. Barron's reported in March that leaders at JPMorgan were reviewing company policies to determine how it should move forward.
"I think, for the most part, it's more like gambling," Dimon said of prediction markets in an interview with CBS News in late March. "But there are areas where you can say no, it's investing. You're deeply knowledgeable, you're taking the other side of a bet, and you think you know better than the other person."
The expansion of privately held Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction-market platforms, has raised new questions about how even sophisticated firms such as JPMorgan can ensure employees are compliant in markets with largely untested regulatory frameworks.
Polymarket has a data sharing partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron's.
Prediction markets are filled with questions that give insiders at various companies a natural edge. Things such as: When will OpenAI issue its next AI model? How many times will Costco's CEO mention "hot dogs" on the company's next earnings call?
Kalshi and Polymarket have offered prediction markets specially tied to JPMorgan, including bets about whether the company will beat quarterly earnings expectations and who will succeed Dimon as CEO.
"Think carefully before participating in markets related to the financial sector," JPMorgan's guidance says, listing examples such as stock prices, earnings, regulatory filings, leadership changes, interest rates, foreign-exchange rates, economic policy, mergers and acquisitions, and product launches. It adds that employees should never use confidential or material, nonpublic information to transact.
Bank watchdogs in the U.S. such as the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency don't currently mandate banks to monitor prediction markets. A JPMorgan spokesman declined to comment on how the bank plans to enforce its guidance or what it means to limit participation in markets where JPMorgan is involved.
In a section of frequently asked questions tied to its new guidance, JPMorgan writes: "What if my role covers clients that operate in different sectors, like real estate, and the event involves a company that could be a client?"
The response: "You must be cautious. If there's any chance your work connects to the event or company, don't participate." The firm adds, "If you cover a sector, you should not participate in prediction markets about a company in that sector. Appearance matters."
Participation in prediction markets unrelated to financial events, such as placing bets on award shows, government actions, elections, and the weather, are open for employees' participation "as long as you do not use information obtained through your work, and local laws allow it," the guidance says.
Few publicly traded or private companies have publicized their employee policies for prediction markets. In January, Barron's reached out to the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average asking about those policies. Microsoft provided the only response: a no comment.
Last week, the credit-ratings firm KBRA said in a press release that it would issue a blanket ban on prediction market trading for employees, "citing the regulatory, compliance, and reputational risks associated with these rapidly evolving platforms."
"KBRA determined that a companywide prohibition is the only appropriate course consistent with its responsibilities to the market," the company said.
Meanwhile, government bans around prediction markets have been mounting.
Last week, U.S. senators unanimously passed a resolution to bar themselves and their staff from trading on prediction markets. They followed governors in California, New York, Illinois, and Maryland, who all signed executive orders this spring that ban state government employees from the platforms.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that oversees prediction markets and their event contracts, has addressed insider trading through enforcement. It defines illegal insider trading as "misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information."
Led by Chairman Mike Selig, the CFTC has started the process of revamping its insider-trading regulations. It issued an advance notice of new prediction market rules in March and requested public comment, specifically asking how it should consider the role of inside information in prediction markets. The window for public comments closed this week, and new rules are expected this year.
Write to Rebecca Ungarino at rebecca.ungarino@barrons.com and Nick Devor at nicholas.devor@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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May 07, 2026 13:21 ET (17:21 GMT)
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