Navan's (NAVN) revenue model is structurally positioned to benefit from persistent travel inflation as per-trip fees are priced as a percentage of overall ticket value, meaning rising airfares, hotel rates will directly benefit gross booking volume, revenue, Morgan Stanley said in a Tuesday note.
Morgan Stanley further said that the company's fiscal 2027 total revenue guidance of 24% growth is "conservative." With net new gross booking volume growing over 50% in Q4, Morgan Stanley said it expects fiscal 2027 revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20s range with a bull case of 30% and above "increasingly plausible."
Regarding potential artificial intelligence risks, Morgan Stanley said that Navan's strongest moat is its proprietary global travel content and supplier contracts that were built over a decade through one-to-one negotiations.
The company has also been active in AI product development, with its Ava chatbot contributing about 1,100 basis points improvement in its adjusted gross profit margins over the past two years, Morgan Stanley said, adding that AI is now also accelerating revenue through natural-language flight booking features.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Navan to $25 from $20 and kept its overweight rating.
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